Maybe Turner Ward Was Just Plain Wrong!
I have been doing a lot of thinking and analysis and while I am a believer in analytics, I do not think that stats are the end all, be all. Humans play the game of baseball and no human can be fully captured with a single stat. However, there are a few statistics that just totally jump out at me. For example, when a batter has two strikes on them,
I have been doing a lot of thinking and analysis and while I am a believer in analytics, I do not think that stats are the end all, be all. Humans play the game of baseball and no human can be fully captured with a single stat. However, there are a few statistics that just totally jump out at me. For example, when a batter has two strikes on them, they have very little chance of getting a hit. It’s way under .200.
On the average, when a MLB hitter has a 2 strike count on him, he has less than a 1 on 5 chance of getting on base. In fact, the best chance a hitter has is at 3-2 when the average batting average is .202. .202! That sucks! The fact remains that a hitter is most likely to get a hit when they only have no strikes or one strike. I am not just talking about the Dodgers, but EVERY MLB team. This is what is happening to all teams, not just the Dodgers… maybe they are even worse. I haven’t researched that.
There are exceptions. Mookie Betts hit .300 with two strikes last season… but has never approached that average before. He had a “special” season in 2018. Now, since this is a reality, is it caused by the “approach” of hitters when they have two strikes? Anthony Rizzo, who is generally recognized as good hitter, changes his approach with two strikes: he chokes up on the bat. One of the changes Robert Van Socyoc is trying to make is to have the Dodger hitters shorten up their swings, or “choke up” with two strikes.
However, I wonder if being patient is really a virtue. Turner Ward preached “working the count.” Is that really smart when the statistics show that when a hitter gets two strikes, he hits below .200? Working the count so that you have a less than one in five chance of getting a hit seems really silly to me. What seems to be a better strategy is to look for a certain pitch in a certain area (you can’t cover the whole strike zone) early in the count. If you see it – you hit it!
I think that is part of RVS’s plan, but old habits die hard. You can be too eager, just like you can be too patient. There’s a fine line between Saturday Night and Sunday Morning! This process is going to take a while – some players “get it” already. With others, it may be a process and other may never get it. We should see incremental improvement, I would think, but who knows? That’s why they play the game.
The Freeway Series
I think the Angels are more excited about playing the Dodgers in the Freeway Series than the Dodgers are about playing the Angels. It showed last night. It’s like playing your little brother and he beats you… but you really don’t care because down deep, you know you can kick his butt! The next two games won’t mean much as guys are just getting tuned up. I would not be surprised to see the Angels sweep. Muncy, Seager, Turner and Bellinger look ready. Everyone else is sleepwalking. Reminder: Spring Training doesn’t mean much.
Other Dodger News
- The Dodgers claimed Justin Grimm, who opted out of his contract with Cleveland. Of course, we already know that Brad Miller signed with them. Grimm has never been “all that” but sometimes a change of scenery is all that is needed or not… He is in the mix.
- I don’t know if the final decision has been made here’s the Roster of the following teams:
Again, I am not sure they have been assigned, but if they have been, the Dodgers are not rushing anyone.
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (66)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The pitching was bad. Way too many Ks by the offense. After earning the second base job, Kike responded with 3Ks. Joc and Verdugo both wore the collar. But, we did have some hits at the top of the lineup, so it’s not all doom and gloom. I’ll take the slow start each year if it means we made it to the World Series the year prior.
Seager is a nice surprise for so little prep. Bellinger, Muncy and Pollock are just getting going. I look around the field and see talent at every position. I look at the batting order and see the lack of a leadoff hitter and cleanup hitter. The pitching staff has 3 ILs and the healthy guys didn’t look good last night. The sky is not falling, patience grasshopper.
I expected to see more for the freeway series.
The BP just might be the teams achilles heel this year. Floro, Garica and Jansen looked rather pedestrian last night and Ferguson didn’t have a great camp. Get well CK and Rich Hill so we can move some pieces (Stripling and Urias) to the BP.
Let’s hope this team is ready to roll when the bell rings Thursday. Can’t expect a 42-8 run every year. Pollack looked horrible last swinging and missing on two breaking balls that were as far out of the strike zone from me to you. Seager is going to be huge for the Dodgers this year, MVP type numbers I believe.
None of the spring training stats mean a thing. I will be at DS on Opening Day for the first time ever. By the way; why isn’t Opening Day a National Holiday? Go Blue!
Jeff – I remember back in the day when players went to ST to get into shape… Now they’re coming in buffed and ready… A 2 week break after the season and it’s back with your conditioning coach… Is it too much for some??? They see these modern day contracts and I don’t blame them too much..
Just a thought though and being an old fart I remember alot of the players having jobs on the off season..
Mark, I have often tried to remember to see if any Dodgers were choking up on the bat with 2 strikes. I do not remember one batter doing it, so far. Maybe I haven’t been very observant, but has anyone noticed anyone doing this?
Honestly, I cannot see any difference in the Dodgers batting with RVS at the controls this year in any capacity. Was Muncy’s two hits yesterday indicative of this new philosophy? If it was, then we shouldn’t look at all his other at bat’s during the spring training?
Why do all these injuries pile up near the end of ST and the beginning of the new season? Has anyone done any analysis on this?
If there is another injury in our OF, who will be backing up Verdugo and placed on the roster? Is anyone near ready for such a circumstance? Is that why they have Beaty playing? I have more questions now than I had since the WS!!
Pitchers and pitching coaches know how they want to get a hitter out and most pitches set up that out pitch. Seager ruined the pitcher’s strategy in his first at bat by swinging at and hitting a ball up and away and out of the strike zone for a base hit. The next pitch was going to be the pitcher’s out pitch.
I guess I would like hitters to be aware of what they usually see is the first pitch to them and if it tends to be soft and outside, then have a plan to hit that first pitch the other way. If a hitter looks for a first pitch they can hit for a home run, the pitcher will know that.
I think RVS is helping hitters look for pitches that are most likely to be offered to them and to have a swing that best attacks those pitches.
Pitchers always look better than they are in the first several innings when games start at 5:05 PM.