Luke Raley – Poster Child of the Dodgers' Farm System
Many fans are talking about 28-year-old (soon to be 29) Luke Raley and how well he is doing with the Rays. Yes, Luke is doing very well this year, OPS’ing .9047and playing LF, RF, and 1B. He played three years in college and six years in the Dodgers Farm System. Of course, you…
Many fans are talking about 28-year-old (soon to be 29) Luke Raley and how well he is doing with the Rays. Yes, Luke is doing very well this year, OPS’ing .9047and playing LF, RF, and 1B. He played three years in college and six years in the Dodgers Farm System. Of course, you cannot keep all of the players due to Rule 5, so in an effort to at least get something in return for him, the Dodgers traded him to the Rays for Tanner Dodson, the 100 MPH flamethrower outfielder converted pitcher. Dodson is a “project” – already 26 years old, he is likely a year or two away from the bigs (if he can ever control his throws). He is 4-4 this season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, as he has pitched 24 innings, allowing 20 hits, 19 strikeouts, and 14 walks.
Tanner Dodson was the best they could get for Luke Raley. There are likely a lot of Luke Raley’s in the Dodgers’ Farm System. These are guys who do not get it immediately, and finally… after several years and maybe multiple teams, they put it all together. I am happy for Luke Raley, but he was just another LH bat, and they had to trade him or likely lose him. Tanner Dodson may also be of that same ilk, and he may become a high-leverage reliever at 28 or 29.
NOTES: Julio Urias and Daniel Hudson are both set to be activated at the end of June or the first couple of days of July. That should help the pitching staff immensely.
Down on the Farm
OKLAHOMA CITY
- Landon Knack did not fare well in his first AAA start – Let’s just say that his 10.13 ERA sums it all up.
- OTOH, Gus Varland, whom the Brewers sent back to LA under Rule 5, is flourishing in the bullpen with a 2.84 ERA. He’s not a high-leverage option but could be a multi-inning guy.
TULSA
- Diego Cartaya continues to struggle – he is still hitting .210. Puzzling – Is this the real Diego or just a blip?
- Jose Ramos hit his 13th HR and has 42 RBI with a .278 BA and .857 OPS. He is mostly playing CF.
Trainwreck
Right about now, that is what the Dodgers are. This story will unfold in time. This is a playoff team, no matter how you want to mock me. This, too… shall pass! Remember, a month ago, most of you wanted David Peralta gone. Not that he is the greatest player ever, but he is hitting .276 on the season and, in the last 15 games, is at .435. So make fun of me all you want. I will come back with a vengeance! It would be nice if Vargas starts hitting, and I believe he will. There is a lot of baseball to be played! Why am I so confident in Vargas? Dino Ebel sums it up, “Miguel Vargas is the hardest-working player on the team.” James Outman is also adjusting by cutting down on his swing and trading power for more hits. The power will come back… give it time. Vargas needs to sit a couple of games to clear his head. The good news is that his defense is very good.
“The roster is not very good!” “This is not a playoff team.” Yada, Yada, Yada! Every year I hear the S.O.S. about how the Dodgers won’t win (and when I say win, I mean to make the playoffs). Once you get there, it’s a crapshoot anyway. This team will make the playoffs, and I will rub your snotty little noses in it. 😉 Watch and learn. Nine years running, I have been right. This will make 10.
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Discussion (203)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Glass half full—-Plenty of games left to play.
Glass half empty—We have overtaken (undertaken?) SF. SD is next
The Athletic surveyed 96 players and asked them who they thought Ohtani would sign with.
Results:
Dodgers – 57%
Angels – 11%
Padres – 7%
Mets – 7%
Yankees – 6%
Unless they asked Ohtani’s best friend on the Angels, this survey probably isn’t any more accurate than if Mark ran a survey here and asked us.
I think AF was looking for a chance to sneak in a rebuilding year and made the decision once Lux went down in addition to Buehler (and health concerns for May and Gonsolin). AF is giving the rookies a runway this year to see what needs to be done for next year. One of the commenters mentioned a new young rotation next year and that could come from the tryouts this year. I hope for the best but will just watch we see if any of our young players help us get ready for next year. I do hate to waste a season of aging stars like Mookie and Freddie. I know this sounds pessimistic, but we had 10 great years in a row, and I think we will come back next year.
For all our moaning and groaning, Vegas still has us as 2nd and/or 3rd to win WS. And Mookie is 3rd in MVP race. Just sayin. We know nothing, Vegas knows something.
Professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage higher than 55 percent, and it’s often as low as 53 or 54 percent. If someone tells you they win 70 percent of their picks (at 11-to-win-10), you are talking to either a liar or a bad record-keeper.
So what is our collective LADT winning percentage? Who had the Phillies winning NL last year?
A lot of people seem to think our minor league talent isn’t as deep as advertised. I don’t agree. Sure, the rookies that we’ve utilized to plug holes in the roster have been inconsistent. But rookies are almost always inconsistent. Sure, you can find examples of players who came up and found instant success. But that’s is actually rare. Most were generational level talents. Many of the best players in the game today struggled for their first 200-500 ABs before they found consistency. Many top prospects get those ABs and it became obvious that they weren’t going to stick in the show. That’s the process. As Mark has said 1000 times, progress isn’t linear. And the only way to know what you got is to let kids get playing time and see how they perform. Some simply don’t have the ability. Others can’t handle the pressure and spotlight. There is no easy answer. You make a plan, and see how it works out. If it doesn’t, make adjustments and give other young guys a shot.
Again, we can complain about Outmans strikeouts or that Vargas hasn’t been able to get hot for any significant number of ABs in a row. But the FACT is we are scoring more runs per game than we did last year! We are actually scorning more runs per game so far this year than we did in 2021 and 2022! And that is after losing Seager and Trea Turner. Our offense isn’t the problem. So just stop with all that.
Our problem is our beat up rotation and complete train wreck of a bullpen. Our bullpen has most of the same arms that were one of the best pens in baseball last year. Don’t tell me anybody saw that coming. This is why spending big money on relievers is so risky. Josh Hader had been light out this year. 18 saves and an ERA of 1.2. But let’s not forget after he was traded to the Padres last year he had an ERA over 7.00! Reliefs pitchers are notoriously inconsistent. Lights out for half the season, dog s**t the second. Likewise, our guys with ERAs that are hovering around low earth orbit right now, could become lock down machines with almost a blink of an eye. That’s the human factor.
The Mets have a payroll that is over $200m more than the Dodgers. They’re 4 games under .500 and 13 games out off first. Their team ERA is almost exactly the same as the Dodgers. But we aren’t paying Scherzer and Verlander $85M!
The Dodgers need to fix the bullpen. And get our starters (who aren’t out for the season or named Syndergaard) healthy and back on the field. I don’t know what the answer is in the bullpen. It’s very strange how so many of our best arms from 2022 are completely garbage in 2023. There is something going on. That said, for some years now Mark Prior had been the best pitching coach in baseball. If anybody can figure it out, it will be him. But we do need to figure it out. And make some moves at the deadline.
And yes, the modern playoff structure is a crapshoot. Having the best talent isn’t a guarantee of anything. And spending dope fiend level money is no guarantee either. Ask the Mets and Rays.
Dodgers are having a very tough stretch. We did early in the season also. Then went on a huge run. I’m sure we will do that again. And probably have a couple rough stretches again this season. That’s baseball. But we have the talent, on the MLB roster and the minors. Things just need to come together. Hopefully before we drop many more games out of first.
One thing that is really dumb is saying “____________player was not ready.” Let me give you an example. Some have said that Miguel Vargas was not ready. That is simply an uninformed opinion. As Miguel moved from A to A to AA to AAA, he always struggled for a while as he went up each level (as many players do). He has struggled longer here in the Show, but if you send him back to AAA, is he going to learn to hit MLB pitching? No – you only learn that in MLB. Sometimes guys go down, but it delays their development.
To be the best, you have to play with the best. I became a “World Class” Ping-Pong player by playing players who routinely beat the crap out of me… until they didn’t. Some players (Luke Raley) need years to adjust, but generally, progress from one level to the next takes some time. I expect Vargas to keep progressing and to a lessor extent, Outman.
Outman has some major holes in his swing that he is trying to fix. Vargas is fundamentally sound, but may be lacking confidence. Both can improve THIS year and if the do, the offense will be dramatically better than last year. Right now. Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Smith, Martinez, and Peralta range from very solid to superstar level.
The pitching is the problem and some of it will fix itself. May will be back or he won’t. Urias will be back and he has a lot of reasons to be great. Nelson may be back, Feyereisen should be, Hudson will be. Maybe Buehler and Pepiot or maybe a trade.
One thing many of you are missing is that the Dodgers are still in a great position going forward.
Maybe this will prove to be a down year, time will tell, but with large sums coming off the books., allowing AF to flex his financial muscle next Off Season, added to the important MLB experience that these current Rookies are getting (and the Top Brass getting a look at what they’re got), with further depth to dig into if Trades are required to bolster things further – I think we are probably the envy of most GMs out there!
My Post from a couple of weeks back posing the question of a possible sell off at the TD doesn’t look so far fetched now.
Urias, Kershaw, JDM and Muncy would bring back a haul that would only further strengthen our position.
To reiterate – I’m really enjoying watching the youngsters play and grow, and we are about where I thought we would be.
The D’Backs are not a surprise – they were very good the second half of last season and have a youth and hunger about them, and have embraced the new rules as well as anyone. This season was always going to be more challenging. The injuries to May and Urias and obviously Lux have really derailed things.
However there is the potential to me that this could really be an opportunity to set ourselves for the next period of dominance. Some shrewd moves by AF now could really pay long term rewards.
Off season they need a shortstop that can hit. Move Lux back to second base platoon Vargas and Muncy at third if they don’t trade Muncy and get a Leftfielder free agent and probable two legit starters to go with buehler May and Gosling that’s next year’s forecast can’t go with Vargas at second base Lux hitting an fielding way better at second base.
“Dodgers have signed outfielder David Dahl to a minor league contract. He has joined OKC and is in tonight’s lineup.
Was with Padres/Triple-A El Paso this season until he was DFA 2 weeks ago.
Career .271/.317/.463 hitter over 331 games in the Majors.”
OK, so if Vargas “always struggled” when he moved to the next level, then why was he moved to the majors during the stretch run? Why was he on the playoff roster after hitting so poorly? For all his vaunted bat-to-ball skills, Doc didn’t ask him to pinch hit for Belli in a key situation. He called on Barnes–and it was the right move!
Seems that you’ve just made an excellent argument for why AF should have traded for a proven major leaguer. The Padres did just that, getting Brandon Drury in a career-year for prospects. Did AF try to get Drury? Was he simply outbid? I don’t know. But I do know he decided to trust the unproven rookie–while Drury helped the Pads end the season of a 111-win team. (And Drury is now playing well for the Angels.)
Several teams made moves that helped them down the stretch. The Dodgers got Chris Martin for McKinstry–but the Gallo-for-Beeter deal didn’t work out. Meanwhile, the Pads, Phils and Yankees all upgraded their rosters. In addition to the Drury, the Pads added Josh Hader. The Phils added Brandon Marsh and Syndergaard, who was a lot better last year than this one. The Yankees added Harrison Bader. But the mastermind of the 111-win team ended up with a remarkably weak bench.
Houston Mitchell has a great Newsletter today:
On May 19, the Dodgers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals, 5-0. Tony Gonsolin pitched five innings of one-hit ball. Four relievers combined to hold the Cardinals to one hit over the final four innings. It appeared the Dodgers were on their way to another 100-victory season. They were 29-17 and increased their NL West lead to a season-high 3 1/2 games.
Here are the NL West standings since that game:
Arizona, 19-9
San Francisco, 19-9
San Diego, 15-12
Dodgers, 10-16
Colorado, 10-20
Overall, the Dodgers are now in third place in the NL West, 4 1/2 games behind Arizona and a game behind the Giants. They are on pace to win 88 games. If the season had ended Monday, they would have made the playoffs as the final wild-card team, but are only one game ahead of Philadelphia for that “honor.”
On Friday, they pulled Emmet Sheehan, making his first major league start, after six no-hit innings while leading 4-0. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the bullpen blew it, and the Dodgers lost 7-5 in 11 innings.
On Saturday, Bobby Miller returned to earth as they lost to the Giants, 15-0, at home, the Dodgers’ worst home shutout loss in, let me check my notes … history.
On Sunday, Gonsolin just didn’t have it, giving up all seven runs in a 7-3 loss, meaning the Dodgers were outscored 29-8 in the three games. To the Giants of all teams.
How did we get here?
Until this weekend, the offense has been chugging along, third in the majors at 5.44 runs per game. Despite a relatively low overall batting average, the Dodgers lead the majors in walks and are third in home runs. But with the pitching as bad as it has been, they can’t afford to go into any extended slumps. They have four guys on offense that you could argue deserve to start the All-Star game — Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. So, though there are games where the offense has failed to come through, you can’t pin this skid on the hitters.
The problem has been pitching. The Dodgers have one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors. Among the 30 teams (we’ll list the leader, where all the NL West teams rank, and the worst team. all numbers through Sunday):
Overall ERA
1. Houston, 3.33
4. San Diego, 3.75
8. San Francisco, 3.85
21. Arizona, 4.46
25. Dodgers, 4.66
29. Colorado, 5.45
30. Oakland, 6.05
Rotation ERA
1. Tampa Bay, 3.11
6. San Francisco, 3.92
11. San Diego, 4.11
16. Dodgers, 4.38
22. Arizona, 4.72
29. Colorado, 6.29
30. Oakland, 6.47
Bullpen ERA
1. New York Yankees, 2.96
3. San Diego, 3.21
11. San Francisco, 3.77
17. Arizona 4.10
25. Colorado, 4.54
29. Dodgers, 5.04
30. Oakland, 5.58
So, though the Dodgers rotation hasn’t been as good as usual, it doesn’t have the lion’s share of the responsibility for the slump. That belongs to the bullpen, which has been horrible. It has gotten to the point where the only two relievers I don’t get nervous about are Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol (unless they hit the ball back to him).
And this is how the Dodgers’ empire has crumbled. Every season Andrew Friedman would bring in arms coming off injury or subpar years, and every season those pitchers would perform miracles. And then the Dodgers usually would discard those guys after the season, and they would soon be out of baseball. Remember Joe Blanton? Brandon Morrow? Jake McGee? Blake Treinen (currently on the IL with the Dodgers)? Corey Knebel? Chris Martin? Craig Kimbrel? OK, just kidding on that last one. There are more who could be named, but we’ll stop there.
Every year in this newsletter I would start the season by saying this strategy was going to backfire. And in 2021 I stopped, because after five to six years of success, I figured the Dodgers had a magic formula. The magic has run out this season.
Before this season they brought in Tayler Scott, who was just designated for assignment. Shelby Miller, who has done well but not dominant (18 walks in 30 innings). Wander Suero, who had an 8.10 ERA in four games. Jordan Yamamoto, who retired during spring training. Matt Andriese, who is still in the minors as a starter. Dylan Covey, released after one game and now with Philadelphia. Tyler Cyr, on the 60-day IL. Rubby de la Rosa, who was released in April. Alex Reyes, who they hoped would be healthy for the second half of the season after having shoulder surgery. Unfortunately he has to have another surgery on the same shoulder and won’t pitch this season. Maybe he can compare notes with Danny Duffy. William Cuevas, who has a 6.14 ERA in the minors. J.P. Feyereisen, another guy coming off surgery they hope can contribute in the second half of the season.
None of these guys has turned into the dominant reliever the Dodgers usually get in these situations. Only Miller has been useful.
So, the Dodgers have had to rely on the same cast of characters as last season. And for whatever reason, they have been horrible. Let’s look at last season’s numbers vs. this season:
Evan Phillips
2023: 2.28 ERA, .158 opp. batting average
2022: 1.14 ERA, .155
Brusdar Graterol
2023: 2.40 ERA, .288
2022: 3.26 ERA, .215
Yency Almonte
2023: 6.30 ERA, .259
2022: 1.02 ERA, .150
Phil Bickford
2023: 7.33 ERA, .278
2022: 4.72 ERA, .233
Alex Vesia
2023: 8.00 ERA, .395
2022: 2.15 ERA, .187
Andre Jackson
2023: 6.62 ERA, .289
2022: 1.86 ERA, .243
Justin Bruihl
2023: 4.41 ERA, .286
2022: 3.80 ERA, .253
Caleb Ferguson
2023: 3.46 ERA, .240
2022: 1.82 ERA, .187
What are the odds that every pitcher would get worse in both categories? The lone exception is Graterol, who is better in ERA but much worse in opponent batting average, so his better ERA is a bit of a mirage.
So the Dodger empire was built on a foundation of sand, and all the rain during the winter has washed it all away.
There’s no easy fix. It’s easy to say “get a closer and assign roles to everyone.” But that’s not why every reliever is worse this season. And this poor play has increased the burden on Dave Roberts to make the right call out of the bullpen each game, which has never been his strong suit. It’s easy to say in retrospect that he should have let Sheehan pitch one more inning Saturday, but that still would have left two innings for this woeful bullpen to cover. Yes, I would have left him in. Roberts can’t bring in Phillips and Graterol every game. He has to trot out one of the other guys occasionally, then sit back in the dugout and hope for the best. This is basically the same bullpen that was the best in the majors last season.
Those calling for the firing of Roberts and Friedman are living in Fantasyland. It’s not happening. Roberts isn’t a good postseason manager, but he has the best regular-season winning percentage of any manager in history. Friedman builds a roster that makes the playoffs every year. They aren’t going anywhere right now.
The Dodgers could trade for a reliever, but would that really help? That might give them three reliable relievers, when they need five or six. Do you really want to raid the depth in the minors for a reliever? With the expanded playoffs, more teams have a chance to make the postseason, meaning fewer teams that want to trade a reliable reliever. And if they do want to trade one, they are going to demand a high price from L.A. Joe Kelly‘s name has been banded about. He has a 4.57 ERA with the White Sox. I’m pretty sure he won’t solve the problems. Kenley Jansen? He has a 5.25 ERA since May 12, giving up 11 hits and nine walks in 12 innings.
Colleague Jack Harris, our Dodgers beat writer, covered similar territory in a fine story Monday. He asked Friedman and pitching coach Mark Prior what can be done. Their answers”
“We still have faith in a lot of these guys, their ability to get outs,” Prior said.
Added Friedman: “I’m confident that as we go guy by guy, that there’s very compelling upside stories, that when we look back a month from now it will be very different.”
The one thing that would be nice to see? Some emotion. There isn’t any on this team. There hasn’t been for years. Doing “make way for the train” arm pump after every hit is not showing emotion. How about getting mad occasionally when a call doesn’t go your way? How about showing the fans that you care about winning just as much as they do?
The reason people loved Yasiel Puig, even with all the baggage, was because he wore his emotions on his sleeve. You don’t need, or really want, 26 guys like that, but one or two would be nice. Right now it seems the Dodgers are a bunch of librarians. Let’s keep the noise down everyone, people are trying to read. It’s like watching a simulation of a team play. You feel good when they win, but your heart really isn’t in it. Most Dodger fans grew up with Tommy Lasorda getting thrown out of games a couple of times a year. Reggie Smith challenging an opposing player to a fight under the stands. The bullpen charging into the stands when a fan stole the cap off of a player’s head. Not that those are all wonderful things, but at least you knew they cared. I’m sure this team does care. Show it. Right now it’s “Excuse me, Mr. Umpire, sorry to bother, but I believe that last pitch may have been a strike. Of course, you have the better view, so I may be wrong.”
Now, some of you out there have already cashed in your chips for this season. It’s certainly not unsalvageable yet. It seems unlikely every reliever will turn things around, but you have to figure one or two will. The offense is good enough to carry the team if it can get just average help from the pitching. The Dodgers are still in postseason position. So, no, not throwing in the towel.
But if things don’t get fixed soon, we’ll know that light at the end of the tunnel isn’t the postseason, but a train headed this way.
One more thing to check before we go. What was the Dodgers’ record after 72 games since their postseason streak began in 2013?
2013: 30-42 (90-72 final record)
2014: 38-34 (94-68)
2015: 39-33 (92-70)
2016: 39-33 (91-71)
2017: 46-26 (104-58)
2018: 38-34 (92-71)
2019: 48-24 (106-56)
2020: COVID shortened season
2021: 44-28 (106-56)
2022: 45-27 (111-51)
2023: 39-33 (?)
Change of subject…..
Anybody besides me get excited to see Giants comeback win over the Pads last night? I know many here see Giants as #1 enemy, but not me. Pads easily win that honor for me in the West. They have players I like to root against much more….Machado, Soto, Tatis. There really isn’t a Giant player that gets me excited in a bad way.
I was surprised SD didn’t roll out Hader in the 9th inning up 4-2. I know he pitched the day before, but he only threw 12 pitches. I was looking to see if he is injured or some other excuse, but couldn’t find one.
And to see Arizona kill Brewers 9-1 in Milwaukee …..could they really be for real? Hmmm
10:07 PM ET
Dodgers (39-33)
Angels (41-33)
SP Clayton Kershaw L
8-4 2.95 ERA
SP Reid Detmers L
1-5 4.48 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
DH J. Martinez R
2B M. Vargas R
LF Jonny DeLuca R
CF James Outman L
SS Miguel Rojas R
3B M. Busch L
Clear-day
0%
70° Wind 7 mph Out
Four rookies in the lineup!
Fingers crossed….
Andre Jackson DFA’d.
DODGERS SELECT RYAN BRASIER
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers selected the contract of right-handed pitcher Ryan Brasier and optioned left-handed pitcher Bryan Hudson to Triple-A. In order to make room on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers designated right-handed pitcher Andre Jackson for assignment.
Brasier, 35, joins the Dodgers after signing a minor league contract on June 4. He made two appearances with the Oklahoma City Dodgers, tossing three scoreless innings with five strikeouts. Prior to joining the Dodgers, he made 20 appearances with the Boston Red Sox, going 1-0 with a 7.29 ERA (17 ER/21.0 IP) and 18 strikeouts. He has been in the Major Leagues parts of seven seasons with Los Angeles-AL (2013) and Boston (2018-23) and he is combined 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA (108 ER/218.1 IP) and 218 strikeouts in 229 games. He was originally drafted by the Los Angeles Angels in the sixth round of the 2007 First Year Player Draft out of Weatherford College.
Hudson, 26, made his Major League debut on Saturday night, allowing three runs on four hits in 2.0 innings against the San Francisco Giants. He is 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA (7 ER/29.0 IP) and 51 strikeouts in 25 games for Oklahoma City this season. He is a combined 36-27 with a 4.24 ERA (229 ER/486.0 IP) and 419 strikeouts in 175 career minor league games (72 starts). He was drafted by the Cubs in the third round of the 2015 First Year Player Draft out of Alton High School (IL).
Amidst the losing and injuries(?), AF lets 4 rookies audition for more playing time. This is fun!
My son will be at the game tonight. I couldn’t go. I have to be up at 4:30 am tomorrow.
Let’s hope this is where they start turning it around.
Vargas slightly opening his batting stance.
I hope I wake up tomorrow seeing a victory but can I be honest here…I would be shocked if we do. But hope is a powerful force.
I was in an area today and my car radio could only pickup the bay area stations. The Giant fans and sports radio host actually think the Giants are the third best team in baseball this year. How that happen. I know yasekrimski and Crawford and Pederson they went over there lineup and bullpen and were like dodgers nope were better then Rockies were better Diamondbacks we are better then them and the Padres we see we can play with them this year and not scared. They looked at the west division and go oh yea were third best team in majors. Um there’s a team in Tampa pretty good Orioles came in and sweeped the Giants at home then Brewers at pretty good I just can’t stand bay area sports talks it’s all Giants world series niners Superbowl and warriors oh yeah they will be back um don’t they play in the same league as Denver it’s like they forget that there’s other teams to talk about. Wait they never talked about the Sharks today. See when they win there terrible the next day drives me nuts.
Detmers has way too good of stuff to have the era that he has. Outside of Trout and Ohtani that is a very weak Angel lineup. Can’t believe Ohtani would want to stay in Anaheim.
Just a painful learning curve for our rookies! So far, wasting a beauty by Kersh