Logjam in the Outfield

Friday night’s game was nice, but it’s just one game.  The starter did his job, the bullpen did theirs (it’s a lot easier when it’s not close) and the hitters certainly did theirs. Kemp and Machado are coming out of their slumps and the Dodgers are still two games back of the D-Bags. These guys now need to build some consistency (which is breed with confidence) and start a winning streak.  The talent is clearly there – the execution has not always been.

Today, we are going to look at one area of the team: the outfield and see how everyone is doing. The Dodgers have a glut of outfielders on both the major and minor league level. Let’s count how many Major League Caliber Players there are on the 40-man roster. Let’s look at their performance and Grades so far:

1.  Matt Kemp – As hot as a firecracker at the start of the season and currently colder than a well-diggers butt. Matt was a Spring  “feelgood” story as he lost 40 pounds, came to work in shape, stepped up and shut up. Lately, he can’t buy a hit. Interestingly, his career first half statistics are almost identical to his second half statistics.  Over his career, he has averaged .285 the first half and .285 the second half… and he’s hitting .285 right now. He has 143 HR the first half and 133 the second half. He could be tired (or injured), but if that were the case, wouldn’t they DL him?  I think he is just in a horrific slump and will be just fine… in fact, he started getting his mojo back last night.  Baseball has changed and hitters are having to adapt a a much quicker rate.  More about that later. Grade: B- (and maybe trending up)
2. Chris Taylor – Probably the best CF on the roster, but he has struggled with strikeouts all season.  He is of little value when he strikes out so much.  He needs to change his approach in order to up his OB%… or he will be a utilityman. Grade: C-
3. Yasiel Puig – The enigma! Dodger fans want to believe that he will fulfill his great promise of talent, but something always comes up, like an injury… or a suspension. His defense has slipped this year. Still, he is one of the greatest talents I have ever seen in baseball. He can carry a team.  Grade: B-
4. Joc Pederson – Who really is Joc Pederson? 10 of his 18 HR came in June.  Dave Roberts often hits him leadoff which is felony stupid.  For the year, he is hitting .226  (.291 OB%) as a lead off hitter.  At lead off, he is all-or-nothing with 11 HR.  In the #5 through #8 spots in the batting order, he is hitting well over .300. Grade: C, but he might be a B+ if Doc would hit him where he belongs
5. Kike Hernandez – On any given day, he looks like a Superstar at the bat and he always gives 110% in the field, but many times, he simply cannot hit.  He’s an “all-or-nothing” sort of guy. He is the guy who gets traded and turns into JD Martinez.  That’s what I fear. Grade: C
6. Cody Bellinger – He’s a Gold Glove 1B, who can also player a solid CF. He has adjusted after going through a protracted slump.  He still is the Dodgers’ biggest power threat. Grade: B-
7. Andrew Toles – In May of 2016, I wrote that Toles would be in the majors before August.  He made it sooner than that! He has looked very good at times, although he is not a proficient Center Fielder. He is a classic 4th outfielder on a team that is heavy from the RH side, which the Dodgers are not.   He did hit a walkoff HR in the 11th inning to win the game for OKC last night. Not enough to grade
8. Alex Verdugo – This kid is gifted beyond belief with bat-to-ball skills.  His non-strikeout bat would play very well in this strikeout happy lineup. I do not understand why he has not been called up. He could be Tony Gwynn! I do not believe he will play CF for long in his career, but he may be forced to play there this year.  His foot speed is simply “average.”  Not enough to grade

The Dodgers currently don;t have any “really good outfielders” or “really bad outfielders.” They have a bunch of guys who are in the middle and in some respects are “the same guy.” In order for this team to fulfill their promise and win the NL West and proceed deep into the post-season, at least two of those players need to step up and raise their grades to a B+ or A-.  Best chances:  Kemp, Bellinger and Verdugo (if called up). Chris Taylor just needs to be a role player.  I would like to see an outfield of Kemp in LF, Verdugo in CF and and Puig in RF.  Of course, they need rest, so Kike, Joc and CT3 can spell them and “somewhat” platoon.

How Baseball Has Changed

Ten years ago, less than 25 pitchers threw 95+ MPH.  Now, it’s well over 100 who can do that. That maybe also explains the plethora of Tommy John Surgeries and arm problems.  It’s tougher for hitters to hit faster pitches with high spin rates and then there is the role of statistics and resultant analysis of those statistics.

Every team has access to all of this statistical information:

• pitch velocity
• pitch location
• what pitches get hitters out
• pitching patterns
• hitting patterns
• … and a whole lot more

What is not clear is how they manipulate that information.  I know many teams hire interns to compile statistics and develop information as to what a hitters’ weakness might be.  Scouting still has a role, but not as great as it once was. The team on the cutting edge of this is the Houston Astros, so don’t say it doesn’t work.  All the teams have this information which results in protracted slumps for even the best players (i.e., Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Stanton, Inciarte and several Dodgers). Adjustments are slower, if ever… as weaknesses are exposed.

At first blush, most oldtimers don’t like it, but it ain’t going away anytime soon. Baseball is in flux due to statistical analysis and hopefully it will evolve in a positive way. 

Rants & Raves

• Puig only got a two game suspension and he didn’t start Friday nights’ game.  Why appeal?  They aren’t going to reduce it (at least I don’t think so), so why not accept it and be able to play Sunday?
• It appears that Dave Roberts is finally (FINALLY) going to abandon the strict platoon.
• You wanted Manny Machado to get hot?  Wish granted!
• It still sounds, like Kenley Jansen will be back early next week.
• Josh Fields pitched a shutout inning at OKC last night. He’s close.
• After the World Series last year, Bill Plunkett of The OC Register wrote this: “The 2016 NL Rookie of the Year avoided any sophomore slump. But his nagging late-season injuries – to his elbow and back – are reason for concern. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Seager might not be too big to play shortstop. But the position’s physical demands might be a problem.”  That is still a very logical question.
• Max Muncy will be a great DH next year!

(Photo by John McCoy, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)