Live and Die by the Cutter

Kenley Jansen has blown six saves and broken Dodger fans’ hearts more than that this year. We can analyze until we are paralyzed but in essence, his problem has been the overuse of his cutter, which is still good, but maybe not as good as it used to be. It’s also likely that the advanced hitting coaches are helping hitters “key in” on what he is throwing.

Most Dodger fans have blasted Kenley for not listening to the catcher or coaches and throw sliders or even fastballs more. They have accused him of being stubborn or selfish which is just plain ignorant. Kenley wants to win for himself and for the Dodgers. In his latest meltdown, he threw 8 straight cutters to Rowdy Tellez who blasted the last one over the fence for a home run.

Pedro Moura wrote about that event and that event may be the single most important thing that happened this season. It could be the most important thing that happens all year. How on earth is blowing a save and giving up a home run the “most important thing that happens all year” you might ask?

It’s important because that was the very pitch that changed Kenley’s mind about the use of his cutter. To pitch at an elite level in high-pressure situations you have to have a short memory and supreme confidence. It also helps if you do it with a single pitch that no one can touch. You rely on that. You believe in that. You count on that… and even when it doesn’t work this time, you think it will work next time. That’s the short memory and supreme confidence part of this equation.

In The Athletic Pedro Moura writes about Kenley’s struggles and how this one is different:

By now, Kenley Jansen has learned his lesson. He understands he can no longer afford to throw his cutter over and over. Hitters are more talented and better prepared than they once were. The pitch does not travel as fast as it once did.

Still, sometimes he forgets. Say he throws three consecutive cutters past an opponent, as he did Wednesday in striking out Toronto’s Randal Grichuk. As the next hitter approaches, he finds his mind reverting to its old ways, intoxicated with adrenaline. There’s no need to mix in a slider, he thinks, though his sober self knows otherwise. They can’t handle the cutter, he’s certain.

“You’re like, ‘Fuck, let’s go,’” Jansen said. “But you have to continue to think, to keep mixing it up.”

Jansen did not mix it up to Rowdy Tellez, who followed Grichuk. He threw him eight pitches, all cutters. As soon as Tellez connected with the last, Jansen knew he had made the wrong decision.

The pitch was well located, not quite as high as intended but appropriately inside. Tellez, though, had it timed it perfectly. He golfed it into the right-field bleachers, and Jansen cursed himself on the mound.

That was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Many Dodger fans pronounced that Kenley was through and that the Dodgers would not win a World Series with KJ as their closer. Before I knew Kenley had “flipped the script” I wondered if he would make the playoff roster if the struggles kept up.

It’s still a work in progress, but Kenley is going to change. He is changed as we speak. Pedro Moura wrote this after speaking with Kenley:

But Jansen spoke Thursday as a man who had clearly reached a crossroads in his season, in his career, as a closer. After another late-night meeting with Roberts and some self-reflection, he vowed to find more happiness in his job. He believes that vow will make him better.

Kenley said it best:

“A lot of the game is making adjustments. And I can still be so damn good,” he said. “I just gotta be smarter. You can’t fall in love with one pitch. That pitch can be even more nasty if you mix and match. It’s gonna be even harder to hit.”

Kenley knows that if he had thrown a slider in that 8th pitch to Tellez, we would not even be talking about this. When you are in the moment, the adrenaline flowing and you have muscle memory of how you always did it, that’s what you become. Kenley now understands the problem and that’s the first step in fixing a problem: Admitting that there is a problem in the first place.

There may be more hiccups as Kenley learns how to pitch again, but he’s got five weeks and I’m betting that he returns to form by the playoffs. When I see fans calling for a player to be traded or sent to AAA or just off the team, I usually know that the contrarian idea is correct.

• Fans were recently calling for Kike’s head and now he’s getting hot, with 3 hits in his last 4 AB’s.
• Joe Kelly was the focus of the wrath of the fans earlier in the year but has acquitted himself nicely.
• Earlier in the year, CT3 was their whipping boy – now he’s hitting .271.
• AJ Pollock was ridiculed by many (I am not a fan either) but now he’s showing his worth.
• With fans calling for Kenly’s removal as the closer, I predict he will make them eat crow.

The only one they were right about was Austin Barnes, who just simply “lost it.”

Other Dodger News

• The last two starts by Ryu have not been good. His ERA is up to 2.00 and this has cost him his favorite status as the Cy Young Award winner. Don’t count Clayton Kershaw out: He’s the Dodgers real Ace. I have said that all year. I hope Ryu gets past this “bump in the road” but It’s still possible that CK could get his 4th Cy Young. He right up there with the best: Top 5 in the NL and there’s a lot to be decided.
• I give a lot of credit to James Paxton who was filthy. 98 MPH on his fastball and pinpoint control.
• Yimi Garcia has great stuff and has only given up 33 hits in 51 IP while striking out 52. His WHIP is an amazing 0.87. The only problem is that of his 33 hits, 14 have been Home Runs. I think there’s an easy fix here (maybe not this year). He might even be tipping certain pitches, but mark my words, he will be a lockdown reliever next year! Write that down.
• This afternoon, we will find out what Goose is made of as he is called upon to right the ship. There’s no Urias or Hill or Stripling and no May (as he is going to be the 6th starter for a few days). The Dodgers need him to go a strong 6 innings against the best offense in baseball.
• Gavin Lux was 1-4 and is hitting .407 as the season winds down. Can he stay about .400? That’s quite an accomplishment if he does.
• Dennis Santana continues to shine in the bullpen. Last night he pitched 2 innings, allowed 1 hit and struck out 4. He did walk 2 but gave up no runs. He will likely pitch in LA out of the pen next year. His stuff is made for the pen.
• Game at 1:10 PDT; 4:10 EDT. Stay tuned.

Posting Problems

A few of you have continual posting problems, and all of your comments go to “moderation” meaning I have to OK them. This may be hard to believe, but I don’t spend all my time watching the site to see who needs to be moderated. Dirk Calderwald, Cassidy, Idaho Al and a couple of others fall into this category. It is nothing that I can fix, so I am going to suggest that you do this if your comments go into moderation:

1. Set up a new account with a new name. For instance, Cassidy could be Cassidy2019.
2. Include your e-mail in the setup process (it’s 100% private).
3. Choose a new password.
4. Then post.
5. I have to moderate the first post, but then should not have to do it anymore.

I don’t want to moderate your comments any more than you want me to, so let’s try that.