Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Damn, our next ace. If we make the play-offs your talking Kershaw, Bueller and Hill. I am down with that, Bueller is a friggin beast.

What a great pitch Buehler just made to Carpenter. The kid in gooood.

I’ve gota say, I wasn’t sure if I’d let Buehler pitch there, or go t Alexander vs Carpenter, but Buehler showed big time mettle in that inning. Excellent excellent outing!

NOW, if it’s 2-0 going to bottom of 9, who comes out?

How about the CS of Potts by Ruiz to Lux? Perfect pitch to throw a runner out, but so what. He still had to make the throw.

2 of my faves (and hopefully 2 mainstays in the Dodger rotation for the next 10 years) are on the mound today: Buehler and Dustin May. May pitching very well so far in this clincher, and Buehler looks kind of ok himself

Striker Buehler!!!!

Anyone watching this game Tulsa game? This is by far the worst feed I’ve seen all year. It’s like watching a game in the early 80’s

Bert Campaneris

Jose Canseco

Jose Cardenal

Aroldis Chapman

Yoenis Cespedes

Mike Cueller

Tito Fuentes

Yasmani Grandal

Orlando Hernandez

Raisel Iglesias

Minnie Mendosa

Kendrys Morales

Tony Oliva

Rafael Palmerio

Tony Perez

Cookie Rojas

Diego Segui

Luis Tiant

Zoilo Versalles

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All Born in Cuba

I think a little more perspective on the Dodger “Cuban Ballplayers” is needed.

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1. They are not all Cuban. Starling Heredia, Ronny Brito, Carlos Rincon, and Oneal Cruz are all from the Dominican Republic. Should the Dodgers stay away from signing players from the D.R.

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2. Only Puig played at the ML level? Not true. Maybe not long and not well, but Arruebarrena, Guerrero, Garcia, Olvera, all played MLB. Maybe Dodgerrick does not think that is an accomplishment, but how many draft choices make it to the Show?

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How convenient it was to not mention that Hector Olivera brought Alex Wood and Luis Avilan to LAD. Now I know Dodgerrick does not think Alex Wood is a ML starting pitcher, but there are many of us who do.

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Oneal Cruz brought the Dodgers Tony Watson who they should have re-signed.

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As Mark indicated many of the players mentioned are still prospects.

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Starling Heredia – 19 – in Ogden. He needs maturity, but he is 19.

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Ronny Brito – 19 in Great Lakes – Defensive whiz who has found a bat and a bat with some pop. He should be at RC next year. At High A as a 20 year old.

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Carlos Rincon – 20 in RC – In 126 PA, he hit .327/.427/.818/1.246 with 15 HRs and 35 RBI’s. He will start at RC but should move up to Tulsa.

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Omar Estevez – 20 in RC – .263/.315/.400/.715. Led the California League in doubles and was #3 in RBI’s as a 20 year old. He should be in Tulsa to start the year.

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Yadier Alvarez – 22 in Tulsa – A ton of talent who most baseball pundits said was worth the $16MM he was signed for. He is immature and feels entitled, but at 22 and a multi-millionaire from Cuba, maybe JUST maybe he needs some more time. He seems to be taking to his new role as relief pitcher very well, and if something clicks, he could be in LA next summer.

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I do not know what to expect from Yaisel Sierra, but neither does anyone outside of the Dodger organization. He may be a high priced bust, but not yet.

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Should the Dodgers quit on the Latin ballplayers because they are not at the ML level at 19 or 20? Not everybody is a Vlad Jr., Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Alex Fernandez, Juan Soto, Eloy Jimenez…Some take time to mature and develop.

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Because not all draft choices make it, should the Dodgers refrain from the draft? Zach Lee was a mistake, Mitchell Hanson was a mistake. Jordan Sheffield? Jeren Kendall? I am not going to go through all of the botched 1st, 2nd, and 3rd draft picks, but maybe 10% of the annual draft picks ever make it to MLB. And most of those were like my son who was a 26th round choice and only had 13 ML AB (14 PA). But they did make it and they did help the organization with their organizational depth to allow the future stars to percolate. Maybe Dodgerrick does not value organizational depth, but those of us who value the minor leagues (outside of the obvious stars), do.

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When FAZ took over, the minor leagues were in shambles. They needed players and they needed them fast. In 2015, the only way was to sign international players. Just like you cannot judge a draft class a bust because only 10% ever make it, you cannot judge 14 international players a bust with 5 who did make it, at least one that definitely will (Yusniel Diaz) and several others that just might. What is FAZ supposed to do instead of signing international players. They get criticized for scouring the waiver wires. They are constantly in the 20’s for the draft, and the likelihood of a line of top MLB players is not very good..

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Should the Dodgers have passed on Diego Cartaya, or is it okay to sign someone from Venezuela but not Cuba? A couple of other Latin players left off the list…Dennis Santana, Gerardo Carrillo, Cristian Santana, Keibert Ruiz, Robinson Ortiz, all on the Dodgers Top 30 prospects which is rated at least 10th in MLB. Or Melvin Jimenez, or Julian Tavarez, or Elio Soto, or Orlandy Navarro; all legitimate prospects to make it to the ML.

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If it is only the Cubans you have a problem with, then let’s pare the list down to only Cubans (9). Garcia, Puig, Guerrero, Arruebarrena, Olivera, Diaz, Estevez, Alvarez, Sierra. 5 of them made it to MLB, 1 definitely will (Diaz), and two have a good shot (Alvarez and Estevez). I am not sure about Sierra. So 8 out 9 (a realistic projection) is a bad developmental outcome? If 8 out of the top 10 draft picks made it, most fans would be ecstatic. At least those that follow the minor leagues. And the scouts would be getting huuuuuuge raises. Some only care about the 25 on the ML roster, some of us care about all of the players, especially those that will be on the 25 man at some point. Maybe not All Stars, but ML nonetheless. So if the Dodgers can sign Victor Victor Mesa, I would hope they would do everything they can to get a 21 year old who will immediately become the best CF prospect in the organization and play at AA next year. Maybe Mesa can become the Dodgers version of a Gurriel (yet another 2 Cubans who have made it).

Joe Maddon’s brother called me today and after we talked business for a while, I asked him if the Dodgers play the Cubs in the NLCS, can he get me some good tix in Chicago?

“Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come” to quote Victor Hugo.

No more Cubans for a while please. Cuban players signed by the Dodgers:

Onelki Garcia

Yasiel Puig

Alex Guerrero

Erisbel Arruebarruena

Yusniel Diaz

Omar Estevez

Hector Olivera

Pablo Fernandez

Yadiel Alvarez

Starling Heredia

Ronny Brito

Carlos Rincon

Oneal Cruz

Yasiel Sierra

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There may be even more, but other than Puig, none have made the Majors. (Puig joined LA in 2013 but was signed in 2012 so we are talking about a 7 year period here.) Diaz got us Machado so that’s good. Most have been huge disappointments. So either they stop signing guys from Cuba (even guys named Victor Victor) or theyare more careful about whom they sign or they do a better job of acclimating and developing the guys that they do sign. But so far the Braintrust has wasted millions of dollars on players from Castro Island and gotten little in return.

it’s possible that this game tonight is between the last two teams competing for a playoff spot.

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in the AL, boston/cleveland/houston/new york/oakland are essentially locked in. in the NL, atlanta/chicago/milwaukee/colorado all look pretty solid.

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i guess a lot could happen between now and the end of the season, but i’d feel very good if we could just wipe out STL before we set our sights on the NL West.

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cleveland at houston is the one match-up that’s almost assuredly set.

Damn, I had the right guys, but wrong order!! Here is tonight’s actual lineup:

Joc

JT

Manny

Muncy

Grandal

Belly

Puig

Kike

Buehler

Today’s a rightie. As usual, I’ll predict:

Joc

JT

Manny

Muncy

Belly

Grandal

Kike

Puig

Buehler

So…. The Dodgers could sign Victor Victor and Junior if they had enough Internationl Signing Bonus Money. Miami has a lot… and maybe they want to sign Victor el al too, but who wants to play for the Marlins?

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So, trade Keibert Ruiz, Andrew Toles, Edwin Rios and Yadier Alvarez for JT Realmuto and their International Signing Bonus Money. Then sign Big Vic and Little Vic.

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Realmuto can hold down the fort until Cartaya is ready. It’s an overpay, but it ‘s worth it IMHO!

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… and I love Ruiz!

Nice article by Ramona on Matt Kemp:

AC – You hit it out with that one… I wish I could put my thoughts out there like you…

I will say again and again after reading daily rants from folks on this and other blogs, “folks this not an easy job that these 25 guys go out and do for a living”… Do you think really that Dozier, Machado and others just say “screw it”, I got my money…

Lets not forgot, this is a sport that deems you a damn good/star player if your successful 3 out of 10 times..

Your last lines about your son summed it up AC…

AC it’s times like these where I need my music and lil time with my wife fishing to handle this race were in…

P.S. and don’t get me started on Steve Winwood…Damn…

The Mesa brothers (Cuba) have now been declared free agents by MLB. Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. are the sons of Victor Mesa Sr., a legend in Cuba beisbol. The Dodgers have the 4th most International bonus money available but it may not be enough to get Victor Victor. Victor Victor is the prize, who at 21 is projected to be at AA next year as an offensive and defensive threat with immense speed. The Orioles and Marlins have the most bonus money and are in the best position to sign Victor Victor. The international cap is a hard cap, and a large dollar team can no longer just overspend to get the players they want. So the Dodgers need to trade some prospects to get additional international money to be in a position to “bid” on Victor Victor. Diego Cartaya is a prize, but Victor Victor is THE prize.

I have been very careful to say that I have never believed the Dodgers were out of the pennant race. I will never accept defeat until they are eliminated. But that does not mean that we fans cannot be disillusioned from some of the play and strategy. We cannot trade for players, we do not make up the lineup, and we do not play. All we can do is complain when things go bad, and complain as we see them. None of us have as much information as the decision makers do. I have never been someone to follow without question. Maybe that is the auditor in me, but as a fan, I reserve the right to complain. People have different words…embarrassed, frustrated, disappointed, pi**ed off. But it is all the same. We do not give up our being a fanatic because the team does poorly. Maybe the disappointment shows that we may care too much.

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I keep reading that the Dodgers have the best talent in the NL, and yet there are 5 teams with better records, with only 15 games to go. How can that be? Either they do not have the best talent, or there is some outside factor influencing the game. I have stated before and will reiterate…this is a three pronged problem; front office decisions, field management decisions, and perhaps most important, the players themselves. Baseball is a game that requires a team of individuals who work best as a unit. Many teams have tried to put the best group of individuals together, but they could not function as a cohesive unit. I do not think that is true with this group. They truly have very few All Stars, but they do have a good group of plus to plus plus players, that when they play as a unit is tough to beat. But when a player (or players) tries to be the “man” and go above and beyond their abilities, the team element suffers.

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FAZ went out and got the best position player available, trading some very good minor league talent to try and make up for the loss of Corey Seager. Something they cannot do.

JT is the glue, but Corey is the engine that keeps the machine going. He is not replaceable by Machado or anyone else. Maybe Machado makes the team better, but he has not so far. These last two weeks is when he needs to audition for his $300MM, by getting hotter than hot. He needs to carry this team. That is why he is in LA. But FAZ ignored the one true weakness this team has…the bullpen. Kudos for Machado; a lot of questions with the lack of urgency for the bullpen.

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Most of us have chimed in on the poor lineups and game management from Doc. I will add…in our opinion. If any of us have a better baseball decision making ability, we would be managing/coaching somewhere in the professional ranks. But we armchair managers (and GM’s). Admittedly last night worked when it should not have (per the stats). I still would have started Muncy over Dozier, and I would still find a spot for Bellinger, but that is me. Doc got a win last night, so he deserves some credit (or at least less abuse). I know Barnes got two hits, but Grandal might be getting one of those hot streaks where he can literally carry the team. Again IMO, Grandal should play 4 out of 5 games down the stretch, Dozier should be on the bench, and Bellinger should be in the lineup for the rest of the year. Apparently Caleb Ferguson is becoming a late inning high leverage option, along with Floro. He got back to back games on Wednesday and Thursday.. I cannot be happier for Caleb. I was very glad to see Doc let Jansen get himself out of the trouble he got in. I think Doc has pulled the pitcher too early at times. You bring a reliever in to get the team out of trouble, but you cannot trust the reliever to get himself out of a jam?

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But the one element of the triad that has the most impact is the player. Players need to adapt and adjust. Not wholesale changes, but making sure they are approaching the pitch the same way, that their head stays down, that they have their hands and hips coordinated.

Hitting is muscle memory, and when the player gets out of whack, it is his job to figure out how to get back to what was successful. Overswinging and pulling off the ball is not going to get it done. Study the tapes, and work with a coach to get you back to what has worked.

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I complained early and often about CT3 and his inability to consistently put bat to ball, especially in the leadoff spot. But something seems to have clicked, because he appears to have more control over his swing, and the line drives are starting to happen. I would much rather have a .280 to .300 hitter with a .370 OBP at the top of the lineup than someone who can hit 25 HR’s. Tone it down, and play within yourself, and voila, the Dodgers have a leadoff hitter. Joc goes hot and cold, but that double down the left field line Wednesday against the Reds was fantastic. If he can stay within himself, he would improve dramatically. Bellinger does make adjustments. He is going up the middle more often, and we do know he has power to left-center when he stays back. But his kryptonite is the breaking ball down at his back foot. He cannot go the other way with that pitch, but his swing dictates hitting a low inside pitch for pull power. What he needs more than anything is pitch recognition. If he can stay off the pitchers pitch low and inside, the pitcher will need to adjust and Belli can then pull away. Orel mentioned last night that something clicked for Grandal when he was in the cage with assistant hitting coach and something clicked and he started to hit like he did in July. But he adjusted, and has the ability to carry a team.

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While I believe the players are in the most opportune position to take advantage of the situation and take control of this pennant drive, I am reminded of what my son told me after his streak of 12 straight at bats reaching base ended (10 hits, 6 XBH). He told me what people in the stands or listening on the radio do not truly understand, is how hard this game is to play. I was standing at the stadium in Pawtucket after a game when my son had an ofer, and an obnoxious fan walked up to him and asked him why he did not get a hit. My son does not have a filter (like his Dad), and he responded… Can you stand 60′ 6″ away from a pitcher who throws 95 with spin and actually see the spin? Well I can, and I still fail to get a hit most of the time.

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Okay now it is time for the Dodgers to win at least 10 of the next 12 and go into SF with the Division won.

They played a very good game on offense as a team, last night.

Can our leftie line up do the same is the question, along with Puig.

I am with you Mark, Taylor is the better centerfielder, but Kike’ has played there, more.

I would play Taylor more in center, so he gets comfortable, because he has more speed then Kike, and a longer reach.

Your also right about Dozier, but Roberts will still continue to play Dozier, even if it doesn’t make sense, much like Granderson, and Reddick, but hopefully, after Granderson and Reddick, he plays Dozier less.

This is nothing new with Kershaw, when it comes to the first pitch.

But with his drop in velocity, he can’t continue to make these type of mistakes.

Let’s see if our leftie line up along with Puig, learned a little on offense, from our rightie last up, after last night.

Because the line up tonight must me better, because we are facing a better pitcher, tonight .

It’s interesting that you left out perhaps the most important paragraph of Mitchell’s article:

“The Dodgers are what they are: A team that hits poorly with runners in scoring position and which usually gets solid starting pitching but has a very erratic bullpen. Just when you think someone is going to step up and be this year’s Brandon Morrow, they fall apart.”

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You can always argue about the numbers, but the won-lost record doesn’t lie. The Dodgers are exactly .500 against everyone in MLB if you leave out San Diego (12 – 4) and Texas (4 – 0) as Mitchell points out.

“Let’s break down their record a little more.

Against teams .500 or better: 48-41 (.539)

Against teams under .500: 31-26 (.544)

Before All-Star break: 53-43 (.552)

After All-Star break: 25-24 (.510)

One-run games: 21-21 (.500)

Home: 39-36 (.520)

Road: 40-31 (.563)

March/April: 12-16 (.429)

May: 14-14 (.500)

June: 17-9 (.654)

July: 16-10 (.615)

August: 14-13 (.519)

September: 6-5 (.545)”

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The team has had 2 good months (June and July) that pulled them back into contention but they have played mediocre baseball in all other months. They just aren’t that good this year – you can look at all of the stats but the won-loss record doesn’t lie.

totally agree with orel last night saying freese’s at-bat could be a season defining hit. with the right talent and the right approach we can be hard to beat. as always it comes down to execution.

A note on a couple of prospects, from the Insider:

For Tulsa, Dodgers №2 prospect Keibert Ruiz has been at the center of both wins, collecting a walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th inning in Game 1 and then hitting a score-tying RBI single in the bottom of the ninth in Game 2. He also hit a solo homer in the first inning on Wednesday.

Ruiz is 12-for-31 in the postseason. №6 prospect Gavin Lux hashit safely in his first seven postseason games for Tulsa, going 12-for-29 at the plate.

For Rancho, right fielder Cody Thomas hit a grand slam in the fifth inning in Wednesday’s Game 2 and №24 prospect third baseman Cristian Santana hit a three-run homer in the seventh.

-Both teams are one win away from a league title.

Rockies are in SF this weekend, and our bff’s the Giants have lost 11 in a row. That means they’re ready for a win or 2! Perfect time to take 2 of 3 this weekend .