It’s Trade Season!

Let me start off by saying that I really don’t like to throw out trade proposals or enjoy reading them.  Usually, people want to trade for an All-Star by giving up the bottom feeders of the prospect lists or a slumping pro.  With that said, let’s go ahead and take a stab at it…

The All-Star Game is the unofficial start of the trade season for me.  Jeff Samardzija was famously traded from the Cubs to the A’s and had to change uniforms during the 2014 All-Star game weekend, and was deemed ineligible to participate in the game as a result. To add salt to the wound, he was given a generic jersey for his troubles.

Our own former Dodger, Manny Machado, played his last game in an Orioles uniform in the 2018 All-Star game. Afterward, he donned the best color of Blue, White, and Red and took over for injured Corey Seager at shortstop for the remainder of the season.

Those are some pretty big names to be traded during All-Star festivities.  While I don’t think we’ll be making any additions or subtractions during the break this year, you know Andrew Friedman is working the phones as we speak.  Most likely 24/7 during the next two weeks or so.

The deadline falls on August 2 this year, departing from the tradition of the last day of July.  Andrew has already checked in on the best starting pitcher available, Luis Castillo (Johnny Cueto Jr.) of the Reds.  We have also heard rumors of Brandon Drury and Whit Merrifield.

But then there’s this…

“We’ve expended a lot of future talent in the last five, six years. Obviously, we’re going to explore anything and everything, but we’re not looking to empty — we have confidence in the group we have here. It’s not something that will be a necessity in our minds. If something lines up, great and we’ll be around the backboard. But hopefully, it’s something that we can continue to fill internally.”

–Fabian Ardaya, The Athletic

So, Andrew Friedman is quoted as saying he probably won’t go big at the deadline, and practically the very next day, he’s in on the biggest starting pitcher on the market while his own starting pitchers lead the league in ERA.  Classic misdirection from Friedman or true interest in Castillo?

The Dodgers have been in on Castillo for years, it seems.  Recently it was mentioned that Andy Pages was the main target for the Reds to make this trade happen.  It’s going to take more than just Andy Pages to land Castillo, but it’s more than a reasonable ask for the best pitcher at this year’s deadline.

Baseball is a very weird game.  I mentioned Eddie Rosario a couple of days ago.  He was bad with the Cleveland team, formerly known as the Indians, before the trade to the Braves last year.  Afterward, he was a borderline MVP.  In reality, he was the Braves MVP, providing a 903 OPS over the stretch run and a 1.040 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE!!! against the Dodgers in the NLCS.  No doubt, there’s no way the Braves are wearing rings today if it weren’t for Eddie Rosario.

The Needs

We know that Brusdar was just put on the IL.  I suspect it was more of a vacation than an actual season-threatening injury.  After all, Brusdar Graterol was the busiest bullpen piece for the Dodgers this season, leading all relievers in games and IP. 

On the other hand, the Dodgers have an incredibly long 40-man roster right now, checking in at 50 players.  Some will be back this year, others will not.  Kevin Pillar is out indefinitely, and Jimmy Nelson had TJ late last season, all but ensuring missing this entire season.  But, a recent interview with Nelson revealed that he “has unfinished business” and is working hard at making a return this year.  Hudson will not return from his ACL injury this season, but the remaining 7 players all have a good shot at returning.  That list includes Walker Buehler, Danny Duffy, Victor Gonzales, Tommy Kahnle, Dustin May, Blake Treinen, and Edwin Rios.

The Dodgers also have some intriguing names that haven’t cracked the roster.  Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Dellin Betances, Jason Martin, Carson Taylor, hell, and even Petey Baez is vying for a return.

So, what do we really need if / when some / most of these players return?  I can see that Mitch White probably won’t be in the post-season rotation, and you might want to protect against a Clayton Kershaw return to the IL at some point.  But there are just so many starting pitchers on the roster, can we really expect this to be an area of need?  After all, many on this site made a case for Anderson in the All-Star game, he’s surely post-season worthy? 

Starting Rotation

Currently, the rotation is Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin, Anderson, and White. 

Kershaw probably has another IL stint in him before the season ends, but he’s as good as it gets in the here and how.

Urias is a borderline all-star but really ran out of gas last year.  He’ll be a fixture in the postseason rotation if we don’t have to lean on him heavily down the stretch.

Gonsolin already surpassed career highs in games and innings.  We really need to make sure he doesn’t suffer a similar fate as Urias did last year.

Anderson, the reclamation project, is by no means a workhorse.  His career high in innings pitched was 176 back in 2018.

White will not be in the postseason rotation unless something goes horribly wrong.

Buehler, May, Duffy, and Heaney are all technically starters, but Doc already stated that Heaney would be on a pitch limit at around 75 pitches.  That sounds more like a multi-inning lefty reliever to me.  I think Duffy is in that same boat, and we don’t know if Buehler or May will be 100% effective. 

The entire rotation has question marks, so I think there is some smoke surrounding Castillo.  That and the fact that he’s an elite player and a righty that will be invaluable when facing righty-heavy lineups like the Yankees and Padres.  Maybe Badger was right.  Just about three months premature.

Bullpen

It currently consists of Kimbrel, Phillips, Almonte, Ferguson, Bickford, Moronta, Price, and Vesia.  Ouch, I’m not sure anyone wants to see Moronta, Price, or Bickford in the postseason right now, even if they’re mostly getting the job done, just not pretty while doing so.  Ferguson has been fabulous, but he’s barely pitched.  We could get some really good reinforcements in V-Gone, Graterol, Heaney, Kahnle, and Treinen, but like the starters coming back, there’s no guarantee they’ll return to pre-injury form.

It couldn’t hurt to add a reliable arm to the pen for insurance.

Position Players

It’s been the Freddie and Trea show all year.  Lux has been a pleasant surprise, Will Smith is one of the best catchers in baseball, and Mookie has shined while not injured.  JT showed up recently.  Beyond that, it’s been a crapshoot that’s formed one of the best offenses in baseball.  That leaves three holes in the lineup mostly filled by a Gold Glove-caliber Center Fielder in Belli, a platoon in LF, and a resting spot at DH for Muncy and JT to share when Will Smith isn’t catching.  As most people agree, the Dodgers can afford Belli’s glove in Center with an occasional walk, infield hit, or homer with his bat while hoping for another late-season hot streak like last year.  We can certainly stand to improve at least one position in the field, at that is LF.  We’re getting by with a resurgent Trayce Thompson and Jake Lamb platoon, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have an everyday player out there in case the old Trayce or Lamb show up or get injured yet again. 

The Targets

Starting Pitcher

Luis Castillo is the only SP on the market other than Frankie Montas that I would be willing to trade for.  I don’t think a prospect package led by Andy Pages is unreasonable.  It sure creates a hole in the future outfield depth, but he’s not a sure thing either. 

Bullpen

There’s always room to add a reliever.  It was recently revealed that AF hates to trade for them.  He says the prospect cost doesn’t justify the value received.  I agree with him here.  We’ve been burned in the past after acquiring relievers.  O’Neil Cruz for Tony Watson and Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields really hurts years later, even if both pitchers were effective at the time.  John Axeford broke himself in ‘18 right after the trade and pitched just 3.2 innings for us. You win some, you lose some, I guess.

I can’t see AF targeting a reliever this year unless he acquires one as part of a bigger package. 

Position Player

It’s LF or nothing for me.  Sure, CT3 will come back eventually, but with his strikeout rate, I would prefer to use him as a Super Utility guy as we have in the past. We might get lucky with a Trace Thompson and Jake Lamb platoon, but it sure would be nice to get a reliable bat out there.  Bradon Drury could be that guy, but I would rather shoot a little higher.

Ian Happ is my guy.  He can play all over the field and has a year of control remaining. He’s got decent speed on the bases and is a good solid hitter with some pop and a lot of doubles.  An all-around, very solid player and a switchy that kills lefties to boot.  Maybe we can expand the deal to include Effross, Givens, or Robertson, as some have suggested.

The Chips

Let’s start by saying there just aren’t ten untouchables in any minor league system, contrary to the belief of most prospect-hugging bloggers.  It’s easy to fall in love with your home team’s prospects, but only a few of them will be productive major leaguers.  I’ll start by defining my untouchables as Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Michael Busch, and Miguel Vargas.  But, even Busch and Vargas are a stretch for me, and I would include them in the right deal. Think Superstar, Juan Soto anyone?

Top Tier – The main targets coveted by other teams but aren’t untouchables.

Andy Pages No 4

As already mentioned, Andy Pages is the guy the Reds want for Castillo.  Pages is our No 4 prospect and is legitimate in the power department.  In 80 Games, as a 21-year-old in AA this season, he has 16 doubles and 15 homers.  He’s also hitting just .240 with 78 K’s.  This is a good time to cut bait on Pages.  He’s going to hit a lot of bombs but probably won’t ever hit for a high average.  He might just be the second coming of Cody Bellinger without the footspeed to play Center Field.  Jose Ramos might have already surpassed him internally as a similar bat with a stronger arm and more range in the field.  He has the same problems with strikeouts.

Ryan Pepiot No 6.

Similar to Josiah Gray last year, Ryan Pepiot has debuted in the bigs this year to show his stuff to potential buyers.  The Dodgers don’t need 27 minor league starting pitchers to backfill an already strong rotation, so this is an area of depth with Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone leading the way.  Nick Nastrini and Maddux Bruns lead the next wave of potential aces.

Landon Knack No 7.

He’s not lighting it up in Tulsa like Pepiot did earlier this year, but he is striking them out at a similar rate. 

Middle Tier – The second prospect in a trade package.

Eddys Leonard No 8.

Great year last year, but hit a snag at high A.  Still solid, he’s probably not a shortstop but could be a super-utility type or may find a home at 3B, 2B, or in the outfield if he can hit enough.

Jorbit Vivas No 9.

Just a step below Leonard with the glove, speed, and power but makes better contact.  Most likely, home is at second base.  We don’t need that as long as we keep Busch.

James Outman No 17.

He dominated Tulsa and hit a big snag at OKC. He’s 25 years old and can stick in CF where his bat might play as a likely 4^th outfielder or a starter if his bat can keep up at the major league level. He’s old for a prospect, so now is the time to cut him loose if they can find takers.

Jacob Amaya No 19.

Man, I want this kid to be good.  He’s from El Monte, where I lived until my parents decided to move to Orange County when I was 4.  He showed enough with the bat early this season for a team to might want to take a chance on him and has enough glove to be a glove-first shortstop if he can hit enough.  He isn’t a 1^st division shortstop, so I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in a deal that pushed our odds for another Championship.

Mitch White

No longer a prospect, but at worst, he’s a backend rotation type, swingman, or maybe even a quality reliever.  He’s not gonna headline a package, but he’s a useful player to a rebuilding team.

Andre Jackson No. 11

He’s on the development list right now after regressing from a solid showing in The Show last year.  He’s got the stuff to stick in the backend of the rotation like Mitch White and could also be an effective reliever.  His value is down right now, but you can imagine him being a very good pitcher if he can get those walks under control.

Kody Hoese No. 24

He’s now hitting 273 after another slow start.  He’s about as old as Outman but was a former 1^st rounder.  Someone might want to take a chance on him as part of a package.

The Trades

Can AF pull off another miracle like he did last year?  There are two trades that I would like to see happen to push us over the top in a big way.  Not only will they resolve each area of need, they would keep our competition from getting these players that would fit oh so nicely on our team right now.

Luis Castillo for Pages, Knack, and White. 

More than a solid return for Castillo.  But, we might have to sweeten the deal a little bit as only one of them is a proven major leaguer, and I’m not sure Pages or Knack is of the can’t miss type of prospect.  But, since they want Pages as the main guy, it just might be enough as is.

Happ and Robertson for Pepiot, Vivas, Jackson, Grove, and Amaya.

I think Pepiot’s stock is high enough that a straight-up trade for either Happ or Robertson might be seen as an overpay.  It makes perfect sense to expand the deal for both Happ and Robertson in order for the Cubs to land Pepiot.  If the Cubs get lucky, they’ll have a solid up-the-middle infield tandem and a couple of pitchers that could be backend relievers or rotation pieces.  Pepiot is at least a sure thing mid-rotation starter with No. 2 potential. A solid haul for a rebuilding team.

These trades would also create a little more room on the 40-man to bring back the first wave of IL returnees.  Three players would be added to the 40-man roster while removing six and creating three open spots.

What are your thoughts?  Would you do these two deals?  Would the Reds and Cubs do them?  Who do you want the Dodgers to target?

Future Dodgers Down on the Farm By Mark T

The Dodgers drafted another Louisville Catcher, namely Dalton Rushing, with the 40th Pick in the Draft. MLB.COm had this to say:

“We think he’s an extremely talented player,” said Dodgers vice president of amateur scouting Billy Gasparino. “We love his strength, we love his athleticism. We thought he could hit with power and not chase outside the zone, and maybe a little underappreciated because he sat behind [2021 No. 1 overall pick out of Louisville] Henry Davis last year. We’re excited to get a left-handed-hitting catcher with power.”

We will have complete draft coverage after the draft is over on Tuesday. Baseball America Had Dalton Ranked #44, so he when about where they predicted. The fact that his is LH playes big! Here’s how Baseball America graded him out:

Dalton Rushing

Louisville C

HT: 6-1 | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.4
BA Grade: 50/High
Tools: Hit: 55. Power: 55. Run: 30. Field: 45. Arm: 60.

A compact and strong catcher with a 6-foot-1, 220-pound frame, Rushing has been an impressive hitter throughout his collegiate career but didn’t get a chance to show his catching chops regularly until the 2022 season. Rushing split time at first base and catcher during his first two years—when 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis was on the same team—and played mostly first base in the Cape Cod League with Bourne in 2021, where he acquitted himself nicely, hitting .314/.401/.542 with six home runs and nine doubles. This spring, Rushing has been one of the more impressive college hitters in the country. Through 61 games, Rushing hit .311/.477/.693 with 22 home runs, 15 doubles and 49 walks (17.3 BB%) to 55 strikeouts (19.4%). Rushing has some holes in his swing, and he has struggled against 93-plus mph velocity throughout his career, but he swings at pitches he can do damage with and makes plenty of impact when he makes contact, with strong exit velocity numbers and good barrel rates. While Rushing’s offensive performance certainly improved his stock, what really pushed him into top-two round territory was his defensive play later in the season behind the plate. Scouts came away impressed with his defensive ability and wondered why he wasn’t catching every day for the Cardinals, with fine receiving skills and plus arm strength. He threw out 31% of base stealers and should only improve his defensive foundation while getting more reps and development time at the position in pro ball.

• OKC lost to Tacoma 6-3
  • Drew Avans (.299/.866) was 3-4. The rest of the team managed two hits.
  • It was a Bullpen Game, and Mark Washington went 1.2 innings, allowing four hits and 2 BB.
  • Dellin Betances got the loss and pitched 1/3 of an inning, giving up 0 hits and 4 BB to go with 4 ER. His ERA sits at 10.57. I don’t think he factors in the Dodger’s future.
  • Miguel Vargas is still in LA… Hummm….
• Tulsa Beat Springfield by a Safety – 16-14
  • Jonny DeLuca was 1-3 with 2 Runs Scored and two BBs.
  • Brandon Lewis was 3-5 with 4 Runs, 6 RBI, and 2 HR
  • Justin Yurchak was 4-4
  • Kyle Hurt was among the pitchers who were BOMBED. His AA ERA is 14.85. YIKES!
• Great Lakes did not Play.
• Rancho Cucamonga did not Play.