It's Never too Early (or Late) to Look at Next Year

The road to the World Series just got a little easier to navigate now that Fernando Tatis, Jr. was told to pack his bags and go home. I am not going to belabor it, but I frankly do not believe his BS explanation. That’s all I will say about the clown! The Dodgers are rolling right about now, and the guys are picking each other up, night after night. They are making Doc look like a genius. That’s what happens when players execute: the manager becomes a genius.

Still, there is a lot to think about before the 2023 season starts. Approximately EIGHTEEN PLAYERS (count ’em… 18) on this Dodger team could possibly not be on the 2023 Version of the Dodgers. I am going to list those players and give you my opinion of the likelihood they will be back or not.

Max Muncy

Max is in the midst of his worst season but is coming on as of late. The Dodgers can sign him to a $13 Million Dollar Option or buy him out for $1.5 Million. Max is beloved by his teammates, and there is no reason to think that this year is the “rule”, not the “exception.”Also, if the shift is eliminated, Max will benefit immensely. If Max continues to improve the Dodgers will re-sign him.

Likelihood of Return: 100%

Danny Duffy

The Dodgers signed him, knowing that he would return sometime after the All-Star Break. Now, it is looking like September. If he does name it back, and for at least a few weeks, shows that he can pitch effectively in high-leverage situations, then maybe the Dodgers will exercise his $7 Million Dollar Option for 2023. However, both things have to happen: (1) He has to return this season, and (2) he has to be “lights’ out!”

Likelihood of Return: 40%

Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger is different in that he does not have an Option Year but is Arbitration Eligible. He has certainly underperformed this season from his ROY Season and his MVP Season. However, he has been a positive influence, and his baserunning and defense are top-shelf. Like Max Muncy, he will benefit greatly from banning the shift. I always say that “if you can do it once, you can do it again.” The Dodgers will offer Cody arbitration – he’s just too talented, and I think he will spend the offseason in search of the Holy Grail of Hitting. He has started to show signs of improvement of late.

Likelihood of Return: 100%

Craig Kimbrel

It’s more likely that Kenley Jansen will be back than the Dodgers re-signing Craig Kimbrel… and Kenley ain’t coming back! They have too many arms in the system, and he has a track record of this kind of season. Bye-Bye, Craig! End of story…

Likelihood of Return: 0.0%

Clayton Kershaw

Clayton will be 35 next season and has battled back problems for years. Still, I could see him coming back to (1) Win his 200th Game; and (2) Play in from of his kids for another year. If hje wants to return, the Dodgers will accommodate him. You tend to do that for legends.

Likelihood of Return: 60%

Daniel Hudson

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option. He looked like one of baseball’s best relievers for two months but then blew out his knee trying to field a ground ball. He was still throwing in the high 90s, and his 2022 ERA was 2.22 to go with a 0.904 WHIP. He also had 5 saves and would likely have taken Kimbrel’s spot had he not been injured. The Dodgers can buy him out for $1 Million or sign him for $6.5 Million. Unless his medicals are bad, I think they will sign him even though he will be 36 next season. This is a no-brainer!

Likelihood of Return: 99%

Joey Gallo

Gallo may not make it through this season, let alone the next. He is going to have to show some progress THIS season before there is a NEXT season. He was paid $10.2 Million this year. He will have to accept some incentive-laden deal to return in 2023. It all depends upon his progress. I am hopeful but not confident!

Likelihood of Return: 39%

Hanser Alberto

Overall, if you look at Hanser’s stats, you will be disappointed. He hasn’t played much but, of late, has been platooning with much better results. He is hitting .306 in his last 15 games. He is supposed to be a Lefty-Killer and is hitting .284 against them, albeit with a .691 OPS. His on-field performance is tangible, but he is also known for his intangibles – He is the team clown, beloved by his teammates, and he keeps the dugout live and loose. Kike Hernandez had it… so does Alberto. The Dodgers can re-sign him for $2 Million or buy him out for $250,000. I think they keep him!

Likelihood of Return: 90%

Jimmy Nelson

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Likelihood of Return: 99.9%

Andrew Heaney

The Dodgers resurrected Andrew’s career, and he is forever grateful however, this is a business, and the Dodgers have a plethora of young power arms in their Farm System. His shoulder issues are a “thing,” but Tony Gonsolin built up his shoulder in his last off-season, and Heaney can do the same. It’s going to boil down to who offers Heaney what. There will still be the question, “Can we do what the Dodgers did for Heaney?”

Likelihood of Return: 60%

Tyler Anderson

Tyler Anderson sought out the Dodgers to help him improve, and he is visibly moved by what they did for him. It’s possible both Heaney and Anderson return, but Anderson will be 33 next year, and Heaney will be 32. If one were to return, I would bet on Anderson. Maybe a 2-year/$22 Million Deal.

Likelihood of Return: 65%

Justin Turner

JT will be 38 in November. Father Time is taking a toll on him even though he looks to be in his best shape ever. He has a team option of $16 Million or a $2 Million Buyout. I cannot see the Dodgers paying him that, and I also cannot see him wanting to play for less. Actually, I really can’t see him playing next year. Hopefully, he stays hot from now through the playoffs, and he can retire with another World Series Championship. It’s time for the Young Turks. I’d like to see JT sign a deal to be with the Dodgers and then work in the offseason with Miguel Vargas at 3B. The Dodgers need Vargas to bloom at 3B and what better mentor than JT?

Likelihood of Return: 5%

Trea Turner

Here’s what it will take to sign Trea Turner – $350 Million! Whether that be over eight or ten years is irrelevant. He is the best SS in baseball and should be paid as such. Will the Dodgers offer him that? YES! I believe it will get done.

Likelihood of Return: 95%

Kevin Pillar

Kevin will be 34 next season, and it is possible he will come in on a minor league deal, but that’s the only way I see it happening.

Likelihood of Return: 10%

Trayce Thompson

Unless he falls flat on his face the rest of this season, he will be offered a contract, but I doubt that the Dodger risk arbitration on him. He will be 32 next season, but I could see him getting a $2 Million Dollar Deal.

Likelihood of Return: 50%

Chris Martin

Chris is making $2.5 Million this year and will be 37 next year. I like him and he has generally pitched around 30 innings a season, but with all of the arms in the Dodgers system, it is doubtful they will use that cash on a 37-year old.

Likelihood of Return: 20%

Tommy Kahnle

The Dodgers paid him $750,000 not to pitch in 2021 and followed that up by paying him $3.45 Million not to pitch in 2022. Unless he wants to take a Million Dollar Deal in 2023, he is gone. It was a mistake in hindsight. Move on… nothing to see here.

Likelihood of Return: 1%

David Price

He has pitched very well this year, and there is no chance in hell he will be back next year.

Likelihood of Return: 0%

Yency Almonte, Phil Bickford, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, and all the others with insufficient service time will be back, and you should expect to see some arms from the farm system make the team. We will discuss that later.

Future Dodgers Down on the Farm

• OKC lost to Round Rock 7-3
  • Andre Jackson went to 1-7 as he pitched four innings, allowing four hits and 2 ER while striking out 5.
  • Blake Treinen and The Bazooka each pitched an inning
• Tulsa lost to Midland 8-2
  • Gavin Stone went five innings, allowing six hits and 3 ER. He walked two and struck out 11. He pitched well except for a 2-run HR by Kyle McCann
• Great Lakes won 11-9
  • Diego Cartaya was 1-3 with 2 BB and 2 RBI as he hit his 19th HR of the season.
  • Imanol Vargas was 2-5 with 4 RBI (a Grand Slam)
  • Luis Diaz was 3-4
• Rancho Cucamonga won 6-4
  • Chris Alleyne was 2-4 with a triple.
  • Peter Heubeck went three innings, allowing no hits, 3 BB, and 2 ER. That’s hard to do.
  • Dalton Rushing played 1B and went 1-3.

Dodger Notes and News

• Seven days’ rest were just what the Catman needed. He’s on track to win 20 games, and his ERA is 2.24
• I am anxious to see how Heaney responds.
• I wonder if Stone and Miller get the call in September when the rosters expand?