Is That BOLD Enough?

I was in the middle of a meeting with our outside CPA’s discussing tax strategies last night when a colleague busted in and told me the Dodgers just traded for Mookie and Price.  That is all he knew at the time.  Unsure who went in the deal.  He just knew that I wanted the Dodgers to get Mookie.  My meeting broke up shortly thereafter and I went back to my office to get all the info I could.  I then got a call from Mark who left a message that he was headed for Chicago and asked me if I could get something for today.  So here goes.

When I said the Dodgers should go bold for 2020, I was actually hoping for Gerrit Cole.  He was the one single FA I thought could change the complexion and dynamic of the 2020 Dodgers.  When NYY got him to sign, I was upset, but I understand childhood dreams, especially those tied to $324MM.  Time to move on.  Lindor was a suggested target, but AF ended the phone call when Gavin Lux was asked in return. 

Once Red Sox owner, John Henry, stated that he wanted the BoSox to get below the CBT threshold, Mookie Betts was immediately in play, and I thought that the Dodgers should make a play for him.  This could be a GO BOLD moment.  On January 6, 2020 in my “The Mookie and Price Dilemma” column, after reminiscing the Punto trade, I wrote…” Fast forward to 2020.  The Dodgers have a chance to get Mookie Betts, but one of the provisions is reportedly that they need to also acquire David Price, and his three years of a bloated contract.  The ownership is again facing a dilemma where their choice is to perhaps stay status quo (a strategy that has not yet worked), or go bold and pick up one year of Betts and bring along Price as part of the acquisition.  This time the financial obligation is a lot less (almost half).  The Dodgers ownership were not shy of walking away from still large remaining contract amounts by DFA Carl Crawford with 1.5 years remaining, and in essence paying for most of AGon’s final year salary with the cash considerations going to Atlanta where he was released per his request for agreeing to the trade.

“AF knows Price, and I believe he would thrive in an environment he felt more comfortable, and maybe LA (with AF) is that place.  We know he does not like Boston.”

Many Dodger fans never believed that AF would do what needed to be done to acquire Betts.  You could go anywhere in the blogosphere and read ad nauseum where AF would never make such a trade.  He only acquires players like Muncy or CT3 and hopes they turn out.  They choose to forget that AF traded for Rich Hill, Yu Darvish, and Manny Machado.  But the naysayers always come back with “yeah, but Yu Darvish was not Justin Verlander”.  But Darvish considered the best option of available starting pitchers at the time.  My memory is not what it used to be, but as I recall it was Hawkeye who mentioned early on in 2017 that he believed the Dodgers should/could/would be on Darvish at the trade deadline.  Now it did not turn out well in the end, and Verlander has resurrected his career.  NOBODY expected Verlander to ramp it up to win the CY at 36.  But he did.

Now AF has once again shocked many by making THE TRADE with Boston part deaux.  Does the acquisition of Betts and Price make the Dodgers WS Champs?  Who can say until the last out of the WS is in the books?  But I like their odds more today than yesterday.  Betts is arguably one of the five best MLB players in the game today.  He has a big RH bat that hits LHP and RHP equally.  He is an AL MVP, 4 X AS, 4 X GG, 3 X SS, and a former Wilson Overall Defensive Player of the Year.  And has done this all before his 27^th birthday.  His clutch hitting is outstanding:

Career RISP – .332/.431/.551/.982

Career RISP w/2 outs – .322/.451/.550/1.001

Career High Leverage – .313/.388/.538/.926

His bWAR numbers:

2015 – 5.9

2016 – 9.7

2017 – 6.4

2018 – 10.9

2019 – 6.8

There is absolutely nothing to dislike about the trade for Mookie Betts.  He makes the Dodgers better for 2020.  I do not believe that AF works in a vacuum and is very cognizant as to what is expected if he wants to re-sign Mookie after the year.  We continue to hear how AF will never trade for a star, and yet he has on multiple occasions, but always on his terms.  If the opposing team did not meet his terms he walked away.  Good for him.  The one time he was willing to get away from truly overpaying was last year for Felipe Vazquez when he was willing to trade Keibert Ruiz.  Thankfully that worked out well for AF as well, when after thinking about his debacle of a trade of Gerrit Cole to Houston and his trade with Tampa Bay for Chris Archer, Neal Huntington said no because he wanted a HR with Gavin Lux.  I believe AF will next end another myth that he will not sign a FA for multiple $100MM and 7+ year contracts.  He shot it down with his Cole offer, but as we are so often reminded…he did not get it done.  I think Mookie signs a long term deal with LAD and ends his career as a Dodger.  If his career continues as it has started, he is destined for The Hall and he will be inducted wearing a Dodger Blue hat.

Of course many naysayers will call Mookie a cheater.  We (fans) still do not know how Boston cheated.  We know they did, but not how.  It seems unlikely that it was in real time as was the Asterisks cheating, but any cheating is bad for baseball.  Again, AF does not act in a vacuum.  Does anyone really believe that AF has not discussed with Joe Kelly exactly how the Red Sox cheated in 2018?  I believe that AF is fully aware of the extent and nature of the cheating and has concluded in his mind that Mookie’s numbers were not overly-inflated due to cheating.  Maybe naïve, but AF is convinced. And I am convinced that AF will know waaaaaaay more than any of us fans.

I know there are many doubters when it comes to the second piece of the trade; David Taylor Price.  Interestingly (at least for me), Price and Betts are both Tennesseans.  Price was born in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, while Betts was born in Nashville, Tennessee, a mere 34.4 miles apart.  As it turns out Price went to college in Nashville (Vanderbilt).  Yes LAD has another Vandy pitcher.  AF must like Vandy pitchers as he has drafted four…David Price, Walker Buehler, Phil Pfeiffer, and Jordan Sheffield.  Maybe AF can go back to AA in Atlanta and see if he can get Pfeifer back.  Also interestingly, the Dodgers previously drafted Price in the 19^th round of the 2004 draft after high school.  We know he did not sign with LAD, but now he is a Dodger at last.

I know I am in the minority, but I like the Price acquisition.  Older, yes.  But his significant injury last year was due to a cyst on his left wrist that eventually led to surgery.  His numbers last year were not pretty when looking at the year in total.  However, for his first 17 starts, Price pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 88.1 IP.  He pitched into a lot of bad luck when his batting average with balls in play was .336, well over his career numbers.  His K rate was a career best at 10.7 per 9 innings, while his BB rate remained low at 2.7 per 9 innings.  His K/BB ratio was 4.00.  No, he will never resurrect his career as did Justin Verlander and win another CY.  But he sure looks good as a back of the rotation SP and slide into the bullpen come playoffs. Remember it was only two years ago when Price won two of the four Boston WS victories, including 3 hit pitching in 7 innings in the final clinching victory.  Can Rob Hill and Driveline amp him up a bit?  I look forward to seeing what he can do.  Regardless, it has been written that the baseball evaluators consider Price to be a $15MM pitcher now, and that is exactly what the Dodgers are paying. 

Of course, the cost will hurt, but it certainly was not as catastrophic as some surmised it would be.  Alex Verdugo may very well go on and have a sterling career, and I certainly hope he does.  RF and Boston have had a positive history, and hopefully Alex will add to that.  But to get a player at the caliber of Mookie Betts, you are not going to get him with Jeren Kendall and Michael Grove. 

I am ambivalent to the loss of Kenta Maeda.  Admittedly I have never been enamored with Kenta, but he did play well for LAD, and I will always hope he continues to play well and earn his entire contract with the Twins.  But at their best, Price is a better option than Maeda (IMO).

In a separate transaction, but one that would not have happened had the Betts/Price trade not been consummated, Joc Pederson is traded to LAA for utility infielder Luis Rengifo.  This is a AF and Farhan Zaidi specialty.  Why so many middle infielders?  Because they can play all over.  Kike’ Hernandez is one year away from FA and CT3 is 2 years.  It sure looks like Rengifo will slide right in.  Luis has two options remaining, so it seems just perfect that he is now a Dodger while Kike’ and CT3 march toward FA.  He will start out at OKC, but I expect he will be up and down during the year.  He will be 23.  When I spoke to an agent friend last night who knew how much I liked Mauricio Dubron, who SFG got from Milwaukee for Drew Pomeranz last deadline, he opined that Rengifo is a switch hitting version of Dubron, and someone I will like very much.  So I will go with my agent friend and Jayne Cobb and look at the acquisition of Rengifo as a positive, and not as an attempt to dump salary as many are projecting. 

Joc is a fan favorite, and will be missed not only by his fans, but also by his teammates, who loved him.  While never my favorite, Joc will always be a Dodger in my heart, and I will wish him well.  After all we now know, in my mind, Joc is truly the 2017 WS MVP.  I am guessing that AF is comfortable with Matt Beaty, Edwin Rios, and Zach McKinstry as LHH options for LF. 

Andy Pages is also heading to LAA and as of this writing, an unknown prospect coming to LAD from the Angels. Pages is truly a lottery ticket.  He could be very good, or again not so much.  Baseball America thinks that he will have a non-descript 2020, but as he matures, 2021 will be better.  We will see, and I wish him well.  I have not heard anything about Ross Stripling going to LAA, so I have no comment, other than I hope not. Now if Strip goes, and the prospect coming back is Brandon Marsh, I will get behind it in a big way.  But I do not see that happening.

So while the loss of Alex Verdugo will be felt, I choose to look forward to the positive impact that Mookie Betts and David Price bring.  I will worry about 2021 after the Dodgers win the WS in 2020.