Is Keibert Ruiz Trade Bait?

For a couple of months, some Dodger fans have been saying that Keibert Ruiz will be traded with the rise of Will Smith and now Conner Wong. Dirk Calderwood said it best: “So Dodgers will trade the best most talented hitter in their farm?” He asked that question like it was totally absurd and it turns out he 100% is right. It’s at least as absurd as trading Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias or Corey Seager.

Many Dodger fans were all too eager to trade Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Verdugo at various times, although to a man (or woman) they now deny it. Don’t make me go back in the archives and dig out the comments. You know who you are and now you are in love with Will Smith and to a lesser extent, Conner Wong. Lots of fans are in love with the “flavor of the week.” Today, the flavors are Smith & Wong. Based upon what we are seeing, Will Smith and Conner Wong are headed to the Hall of Fame.

However, I would hold off a dozen years or so before making the busts of their faces. Just like Cody Bellinger was not going to hit .400, Will Smith is not going to 59 HR which was his pace a few days ago. Right about now, Will Smith is hitting .298 with a .370 OB% and OPS’ing 1.091. He also has 12 HR and 33 RBI in 119 Plate Appearances. If he does that over an entire season, he is unquestionably the best catcher EVER in baseball… EXCEPT THAT HE ISN’T!

I wish. I hope. I pray, that he is, but there is no way he can sustain that. At age 19, Will Smith hit .221 for the University of Louisville and followed that up with a .242 BA at age 20. He hit 2 HR his first two years in college. At age 21, he jumped up to .382 and had a .480 OB% while hitting 7 HR. That season got him drafted by the Dodgers.

Later that same year, he started out in Ogden for 7 games, moved to Great Lakes for 23 games and finished the season at Rancho Cucamonga for 25 games. His line for the season was .246 BA/.355 OB% (he has a good eye)/5 HR. In 2017 at age 22, he played all but one game at Rancho (one at Tulsa) and hit .231 (.358 OB%) and 11 HR. His strikeout rate increased to 29% from 24%.

In 2018, Will started at Tulsa where he hit .264 with a .358 OB% and blasted 19 HR before moving to OKC where he fell flat on his face (.138 BA/.206 OB%), striking out 38% of the time is 98 AB’s. Throughout the 2018 season, the Dodgers had been working on his swing and launch angle and that continued in the AFL where he hit .371 with a .452 OB%. He did only hit 2 HR there in 73 AB.

This year at age 24, Smith started at OKC and hit .269 with a .370 OB% and 20 HR. With his 12 with the Dodgers he now has 32 on the year. His strikeout rate is a manageable 24% and he has taken to his new swing like a pig to sloop, but like all hitters, the league will adjust and will he. Cody struggled and Will Smith will struggle as well.

For the record, I like Will Smith a lot and hope he is with the team for a long time… and I think he will be. However, I see him more as a backup catcher and utilityman. I like Keibert Ruiz as the Dodgers future catcher… even over Diego Cartya and here’s why:

Will Smith is about the size of Austin Barnes. He’s smallish for a catcher and I am not just talking about height (5′ 10″). Keibert Ruiz (at age 21 and 40 days) is 6′ 0″ and 200 pounds. By age 23 or 24 he will likely be 215 to 220.

I won’t go through all his minor league batting stats because they are eye-popping in the Rookie Leagues, Rancho and Tulsa until his age 19 year. Before this season, as a teenager, his career BA was .309 (3 years) and his strikeout rate was 11%. Remember, he was usually playing against players 2 to 4 years older.

After hitting .268 in his first year at Tulsa, the Dodgers decided to alter his swing and change the launch angle. Keibert has not taken to that like Will Smith because that also means you strikeout more. The power has not come yet, but it will. After hitting .254 in Tulsa this season, Ruiz hit .316 with 2 HR (40 AB’s) and just 1 K before a broken finger ended his season at OKC . When Smith moved to OKC the first time, he fell flat on his face – Ruiz got better!

To those of you who believe a players’ Age 20 season defines their career, I say you are silly, but KayBear’s Age 20 season was a success as he has finally embraced his new hitting style. Like Alex Verdugo, his power will come later.

For those of you who think Smith is superior defensively, you have to remember what attracted scouts to Ruiz in the first place: his defense. Here’s what BA says about him:

Track Record: Ruiz mainly attracted teams with his defense as an amateur in Venezuela, training at the academy run by former major league shortstop Carlos Guillen. Almost immediately after signing with the Dodgers, Ruiz began holding his own against older players. At age 17 he moved to the Rookie-level Pioneer League and hit .354 as the league’s youngest player. At 18 he jumped to full-season ball and hit .316 with an .813 OPS between low Class A and high Class A. And in his age-19 season, as the rare teenaged catcher in the upper levels, Ruiz had the lowest strikeout rate of any hitter in Double-A, hit a career-high with 12 home runs and ably handled Tulsa’s high-octane pitching staff. 

Scouting Report: Ruiz originally intrigued with his defense, but as he’s progressed his offense stands out. He is a gifted switch-hitter with excellent timing and bat speed and loose wrists that enable him to manipulate the barrel to all parts of the zone, giving him excellent plate coverage. He has an aggressive approach and doesn’t walk much, but he stays within the strike zone and rarely swings and misses. Ruiz puts together good at-bats from both sides of the plate, but he has faster hand speed and more natural lift in his lefthanded swing. He has progressively added strength and increased his home run total every season, now projecting for double-digit homers to go with a plus bat. Ruiz’s defense lags behind his offense but is still advanced for his age and is constantly improving. He shows good timing blocking balls, is an above-average–if sometimes inconsistent–receiver and has developed a knack for backpicking runners. He has an average, accurate arm that occasionally gets slowed down by footwork and transfer issues, but he made strides to clean those up and improved his caught stealing rate to a career-best 26 percent in 2018. Ruiz also became more confident handling a staff, from presenting gameplans to pitchers to knowing when to take mound visits. 

The Future: Ruiz’s success on both sides of the ball as a teenager in Double-A made him the top catching prospect in baseball for many evaluators. His potential as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order catcher has him positioned to be next in the long line of Dodgers great homegrown backstops.

The truth is: We don’t know how good Ruiz can be, but with his bat-to-ball ability (it’s the equal of Alex Verdugo… maybe better), he is likely a .300 hitter in the bigs with potential 20+ HR power. The fact that he’s a switch-hitter and both Wong and Cartya are RH, means he is not going anywhere.

1. Seager
2. Urias
3. Bellinger
4. Buehler
5. Verdugo
6. Smith

Next is the Kay Bear! Write it down. It might be 2020 or 2021. It depends on his progress and the Dodgers needs. Finally, he has a fantastic attitude and work ethic and as he becomes a man, his game will go to the next level. The Dodgers have very few needs that cannot be filled in-house this off-season and AF will not make any dope-fiend moves.