Impending Doom – Roster Crunch Edition

The Dodgers have an embarrassment of pitching as Andrew Friedman has stockpiled an incredible amount of depth at perhaps the most valuable position when it comes to postseason baseball.  We’ve all heard the adage, “You can never have too much pitching”.  I think Andrew Friedman is trying to prove that adage obsolete.  He’s stashing pitching in every possible way.  He has up-and-coming guys with minor league options that can be shuttled between the 40-man and active rosters and have reinvented the 60-day IL as a hybrid or extended roster to augment the 40-man.

As a result, there’s a virtual potpourri of Starting Pitching options that would make any GM blush.  You could assemble 2 Starting Rotations that would compete with most teams in the league.  This isn’t an exaggeration. 

Just on the 40-man roster and extended roster that most call the 60-day IL we have…

Danny Duffy, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Andrew Heaney, Andre Jackson

Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Ryan Pepiot, Julio Urias (Walker Buehler won’t be back this year, and most likely next year, Trevor Bauer still exists and is possibly in play for next season.)

Miller and Stone are ready to be activated at a moment’s notice if it comes to that.

Worried about next year? 

Kershaw will most likely be back and can be penciled in for 20 regular season starts and another postseason run. 

Bauer is still technically under contract – can they really ban him for 2.5 years?

May, Urias, Gonsolin, and Danny Duffy are all under team control, with Miller, Grove, Jackson (for now), Pepiot, and Stone waiting in the wings.

It’s a ridiculous amount of depth that I don’t think any other team can come close to matching.  That doesn’t include a possible return of Heaney or Anderson, although Heaney might need another year to really establish himself for a big payday.  Why not return to the team that made you what you are today?

The Bullpen is no different, and there’s a ton of quality from injured former setup guys to guys with great stuff that the pitching gurus have optimized into legitimate weapons.  Even the weakest link on the current staff (as of two days ago) is a former first-rounder (10th overall); Phil Bickford has five more years of team control.  I certainly wouldn’t want to just DFA a guy with his talent, even if this year’s results are a little worse than expected.

Unfortunately, there’s a roster crunch coming.  When a player comes back from the 60-day IL, you need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster and possibly the 26-man active roster (28 in September with a 14 pitcher limit).

Let’s examine the 60-day IL and the pending doom of the roster crunch to see what we could expect the roster to look like as we head into the post-season.

The Magnificent Seven

There are no less than seven very good Major League pitchers that currently reside on the 60-day IL. That’s one shy of an entire bullpen, two more than a five man rotation, or just over half of a regular season staff. Some are out for the season, and not-so-former Ace, Walker Buehler, will be out for next year as well, barring a return for a post-season push.

• Walker Buehler – This one’s easy. He’s not coming back this season, possibly next year, either.
• Daniel Hudson – Also an easy call. He won’t be back this year, but the Dodgers hold a club option for next season.
• Jimmy Nelson – Won’t be back this year unless something really crazy happens. But, like Hudson, the Dodgers hold a club option on him for next season.
• Blake Treinen – He’s just about ready to be activated, barring catastrophe.
• Tommy Kahnle – He’s on a rehab assignment right now and has appeared in three games so far. He’s gotten up to 97, so he’ll most likely be back at some point. I think AF wants to get at least some Return on Investment since he’ll be hitting the free agent market next year.
• Victor Gonzalez – He’s on a rehab assignment right now and is pitching well. This one is a coin flip for me. I think he’s better than Price, but he hasn’t pitched in so long; there’s a lot of risk in cutting a player in order to bring him back. Maybe an option to option, or option someone else.
• Danny Duffy – There’s a chance he comes back as a reliever this season, but probably a better chance he doesn’t come off the IL until the end of the year. Heaney and Anderson fill this same role if Kershaw, May, Gonsolin, and Urias are healthy heading into the postseason. Duffy is set to begin his rehab assignment, so you never know.

In summary, Kahnle and Treinen are sure things, and Duffy and V-Gone have a chance to return, but there’s no pressure on the Dodgers to make sure they do.  The fact is they don’t have to activate all the pitchers that are “coming back.”  It doesn’t make sense to activate a guy with the risk of shuttling a good pitcher to the minors and DFA someone else.  But it certainly doesn’t hurt to get a guy like V-Gone healthy and waiting in the wings in case there’s another injury.

There is a caveat.  The maximum rehab assignment for a position player is 20 days, 30 days for a pitcher.  This means that Victor Gonzalez will, in fact, have to be activated before the end of the season since his rehab assignment started on August 16^th. Ditto for Duffy.

All of this amounts to the fact that 3 DFA’s can be expected in order to get V-Gone, Kahnle, and Treinen back onto the 40-man roster.  Three spots will need to open on the active roster as well if you choose to add V-Gone, who can be optioned.

In addition to the 60-Day IL, we also have some pitchers that are on the 15-Day IL.  Clayton Kershaw, Yency Almonte, and now, Tony Gonsolin.  Yency Almonte hasn’t thrown a bullpen yet, but he’s just 28 years old, is having the best year of his career, and has three more years of team control, so you can bet they’re gonna try to get him back on the active roster at some point and it’s clear he won’t be a DFA candidate. Perhaps he’ll come back after Treinen, Kahnle, and V-Gone complete their tryouts.

So how does all of this shake out for the Active Roster heading into the postseason? First, there will need to be 3 DFAs to get V-Gone, Kahnle, and Treinen back onto the 40-man.  There may be a loophole as it pertains to V-Gone and Duffy.  If a pitcher suffers a “setback” or new injury, he can be recalled from his rehab assignment, remain inactive for at least seven days, and then start a new rehab assignment.  This would take them through the remainder of the season if necessary.  As a result, the Dodgers will have 2-4 DFA’s depending on the circumstances. 

In addition to DFA’s for the guys coming back for the 60-Day IL, there will also need some space on the active roster (now 28, 14 pitchers). Let’s see how we can make room for six pitchers for 14 spots.

DFA Possibilities…

Eddie Alvarez was the most obvious choice.  But, he was prematurely released in a surprise move ahead of the Mets series when they selected Heath Hembree from AAA.  Now, that same Heath Hembree will most likely be DFA’d at some point.  He is now a coin flip with the next candidate…

Jake Reed is most likely the next in line and another easy choice.  In fact, he’s already been DFA’d several times in his career, but surprisingly has two options remaining and is controllable through his age 34 season – 2027.

After that, there are a few guys that are on the fringes of the 40-man roster.  They’re somewhere between organization depth and legitimate prospects, but with more players needing to be protected from next year’s Rule-5 draft, they might think one or more are redundant pieces.  This group includes Jorbit Vivas, Jacob Amaya, Andre Jackson, and Eddys Leonard.  Maybe Amaya is safe since he’s depth at Shortstop with the risk of losing Trea Turner to free agency.  Vivas and Leonard seem a little redundant, with Leonard slightly more useful.  They recently passed on Andre Jackson in favor of Grove to make a spot start, which might signal his future demise.

Now that we have the DFA’s settled let’s look at the current staff and see how these six pitchers will fit in.

Current Roster and Pending Activations

1. Clayton Kershaw will be activated tomorrow, and no roster moves will be needed with the expansion for September Rosters. On the position player side, Miguel Vargas is rumored to be added.
2. Blake Treinen will be back over the weekend. Goodbye Heath! It was short but sweet. We’ve seen this kind of move from Andrew Friedman before. Remember when All-Star catcher Travis d’Aurnaud had an AB a couple of years ago?
   
   Gonsolin, V-Gone, and Kahnle are all a coin flip on who’s next…
   
3. Tommy Kahnle – The easy call is to DFA Jake Reed and replace him on the roster. But, those years of control and options remaining might give him some life. Regardless, he’s off the active roster and he might slip through waivers this late in the season.
4. Tony Gonsolin – Now, it’s downright hard. Gonsolin will be back for sure, but who gets the Axe? Jorbit Vivas is my guess, assuming Reed was already DFA’d. But someone has to go from the Active Roster. My guess is Martin or Graterol gets optioned.
5. V-Gone – Doc recently said he’ll be activated at some point. Could it be that Andre Jackson gets the kiss of DFA’s death? On the active roster, Caleb or Vesia might get a rest with an option, kicking the can down the road as far as post-season options are concerned. Do you think they’ll dump Price?
6. Danny Duffy – I was shocked to hear he’s starting his rehab assignment. If he uses the whole 30 days, he’s come off for the 5-game series against the Rockies. Do they really want to DFA a player just to find out if Danny can pitch in a couple of games? I’m going to keep Duffy off the roster for this exercise. Barring another injury or someone completely falling off the cliff, I just can’t see him pitching this season unless the Dodgers already know who they’re going to DFA to make room for the next wave of Rule 5 guys.

I really don’t know if Almonte will crack the roster. It sure looks like he’s running out of time on the calendar to start and complete a rehab assignment. I think Almonte is out of options, so the Dodgers would have to option Martin or Graterol in favor of Almonte, and since you already had to option one of them for Gonsolin, both might have to wait it out in the minors until their ticket is punched for the post-season.

This is what the staff will look like when it’s all said and done…

The Final Product

Starting Pitchers
Tyler Anderson L
Andrew Heaney L
Dustin May R
Julio Urías L
Clayton Kershaw L
Tony Gonsolin R

Relief Pitchers
Blake Treinen R
Craig Kimbrel R
Chris Martin R or Almonte R or Brusdar Graterol R
Evan Phillips R
David Price L
Tommy Kahnle R
Alex Vesia L or Caleb Ferguson L
Victor Gonzalez L

Optioned
Brusdar Graterol R and/or Chris Martin R
Either Alex Vesia L or Caleb Ferguson L

Almonte and Duffy are off roster until the very end of the season

All of these pitchers are in play for post-season rosters. If we’re playing a team that’s better against lefties, we have the luxury to stack right-handers and vice versa for a team that crushes righties like the Mets. This pitching staff is going to be a monster for any playoff foe.

Now, I’m really wondering if they’ll dump Kimbrel or Price at some point. But, if you don’t have to, why not carry that depth for the postseason? This is the deepest 40-man roster I can ever remember.