How to Build a Great Rotation

Many… or at least some Dodger fans believe that this Winter, the Dodgers will do something they never have under Andrew Friedman and sign two or maybe even three starting pitchers to long-term deals. Let’s get this over with right now: It is not happening! If you look at Andrew Friedman’s past history, you will see that he rarely gives out long-term contacts – Mookie Betts was the lone exception. Starting pitchers are simply not a good long-term investment. There are exceptions… but not many. The road to failure is paved with long-term contracts for pitchers.

The Phillies hired Dave Dombrowski before the start of the 2021 season, and he brought the team to the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. He is known for winning in the short term by trading prospects, signing free agents, and saddling the team with longer-term deals that will be bad in the end. It happened to him in Florida, Detroit, and Boston. He knows how to assemble a team that can win in the short term, but he mortgages the future to do so. He is in the process of doing it again. He knows he has a short window opening, so he signed Aaron Nola to a 7-year deal yesterday. He won’t be around at the end of the contracts, and Nola will be someone else’s problem. Dombrowski will likely make a couple of more signings in an effort to win now.

Maybe it will work, but the odds are it won’t. Like it or not, the playoffs (as they are currently constructed) are as close to a crapshoot as you can get. In a year or three, the Phillies will tank, and Dombrowski will be fired and collect his salary until 2027. Most fans will say that it wasn’t worth it. That’s the antithesis of what Andrew Friedman is trying to do. He wants to be relevant and in the playoffs EVERY YEAR! So, if you think AF will sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto for ten years (unless it is a Kenta Maeda-type deal), or Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, or some other pitchers who will command a longer-term deal, you will be sorely disappointed!

It’s far more likely that he signs one or two pitchers at a much lower AAV and under three or four years. I am talking about the following pitchers:

• Kyle Gibson
• Luis Severino
• Tyler Mahle
• Jack Flaherty
• Michael Lorenzen
• Sean Manaea
• Michael Wacha
• Kenta Maeda
• Shota Imanaga
• Hyun-jin Ryu
• Martin Perez
• Seth Lugo
• Lucas Giolito
• Sonny Gray

If that surprises you, you haven’t been paying attention. Oh, he could traded for Corbin Brunes or Dylan Cease in the right deal (I think Cease is more likely as he has two years of control, and Burnes’ agent is the devil himself). Andrew Friedman has been building (stockpiling) minor-league arms and now has amassed an impressive array.

Last year we saw Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan – all three who will likely be in the rotation THIS YEAR. We also have Michael Grove and Gavin Stone (one of whom could go to the pen), and Walker Buehler, who will be back – the only question is how effective he will be. In 2025, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin will return, and then there are Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt (who may be a bullpen guy). Maddux Bruns is making strides and, along with Justin Wrobleski, could be the lefties Andrew Friedman covets. Then there are Kendall Williams, Peyton Martin, Jarrod Karros, and Hyun-Seok Jang. These are all pitchers with varying degrees of promise, and yes, not all will make it… but some will.

What Andrew Friedman is doing is not unlike what AJ Anthropolus has done in Atlanta. He stockpiles them; some breakout, and some just break, but he just keeps them coming. Friedman has gotten the Dodger farm system to this point. It is loaded with live arms, and it should start delivering a solid pipeline of pitchers each year.

Do the Dodgers need a Number One? Maybe not! Bobby Miller could be the guy, and Walker Buehler is a bulldog – don’t count him out. The Dodgers could use a LHP in the rotation, and they do not have one right about now, so Lugo, Ryu, or Imanaga could be desirable. If Imanaga gets four years, AF could be all in. On the other hand, AF may have ideas that we have never even thought of as yet! Freidman was all in on Gerrit Cole, but Cole is an exception to the rule. There are not many Cole’s on the market, and Cole wanted to be a Yankee since he was a kid. BTW, Corey Seager went to the team where he liked to hit the most. That part is true.

I can see a scenario where AF will trade at least some of the following players: Busch, Vargas (not both), Pages, Vivas, Cartaya, and Rushing (among others), but he will be loathe to trade some of the above pitchers, because he knows some of them will be good to great! That’s how you build a great starting staff – from within. You blend in an occasional Free Agent, like Tyler Anderson or maybe Dylan Cease, but the best rotations are homegrown.