Has San Diego Caught The Dodgers?

There has been a lot of talk by MLB fans in general how the Padres may have caught the Dodgers.  On the East coast, most in NY and Atlanta believe they have better 26-man rosters.  Dodger fans of course take offense at such a charge.  None of the four teams are finished completing their rosters, but I thought I would take a more in depth look at a Dodgers/Padres comp, from my perspective, such as it is.  It would be so easy to get on here and just say how each and every Dodger is better than each and every Padre (or Met or Brave). During the season, I am almost always emphatically Dodgers can do no wrong.  Yes, a pure Homer.  During the offseason, I try to be a little more objective.  Words are just words, and they do not make one team better than the other.  That has to be proven on the field.

As of right now, Dodger losses from their 2020 WS roster:

• Pedro Baez
• Jake McGee
• Alex Wood
• Kike’ Hernandez
• Joc Pederson
• Justin Turner – I still believe AF will sign JT so we can leave him out of this analysis.

Dodger additions:

• David Price
• Corey Knebel

I think Jake McGee and Alex Wood are the 27^th and 28^th man on the roster and will not be replaced.  Corey Knebel replaces Pedro Baez.  David Price will either move Tony Gonsolin to the bullpen or to AAA to continue starting.  Some believe it will be May, but I think the team is better with May in the rotation and Gonsolin in the pen.  I think there are other moves that AF will make before he finalizes the bullpen, so this is a moving target.  I HAVE ZERO BELIEF THAT TREVOR BAUER WILL BE A DODGER.   As it presently exists, the bullpen is good but not elite.  With limited financial flexibility, I doubt that a significant high leverage late inning addition is on the horizon, unless other high cost players are moved.  But then again, maybe the budget will not be a hindrance in the composition of the bullpen.

Zach McKinstry is the logical replacement for Kike’.  I do not have the confidence in Zach McKinstry many fans do.  I think he had a fantastic 2019 in AA and AAA and a good 2020 ST.  He has more than earned a chance to make the 26 man team.  But where Kike’ excelled, defense and an occasional clutch HR, I do not believe Zach has Kike’s defensive chops or his power ability. 

None of Matt Beaty, Luke Raley, or Zach Reks are an improvement over Joc.  The Dodgers need another RH bat (in addition to JT), so is DJ Peters an option?

Dodgerrick does not believe that Corey Knebel is an improvement over Pedro Baez.  And while I admire and respect Rick for his knowledge and ability to cogently articulate, it was he who gave Baez the moniker of EL Gasolino for his continuous inability to get inherited runners out, especially in playoff games.   At least Rick was the first person I ever heard refer to Baez as El Gasolino.  I am going to go with Corey Knebel as an improvement.

Even if the Dodgers do re-sign JT, he is an aging 36 year old 3B who has rarely been healthy enough for a full year.  He is nearing more of a DH role rather than 3B, meaning Edwin Rios will be platooning with JT.  I am not sure that a JT/Rios platoon is an improvement over a younger and healthier JT, but let’s consider this a wash.  JT is a Dodger fan favorite, as well as a clubhouse leader.  Without JT at all, this will be a very significant downgrade.

David Price is the big improvement as a #3.  There are certainly questions as to whether Price can return to top of the rotation after a year and a half.  We Dodger fans believe he will, but that does not make the questions any less poignant.

Now for the Padres.  Padres losses:

• Luis Patino
• Garrett Richards
• Trevor Rosenthal
• Ryan Weathers
• Mike Clevinger
• Zach Davies
• Luis Campusano
• Jason Castro
• Mitch Moreland
• Greg Allen

Padres additions:

• Blake Snell
• Yu Darvish
• Dinelson Lamet
• Joe Musgrove
• Victor Caratini
• Ha-seong Kim
• Brian O’Grady
• Jorge Mateo

Victor Caratini is an improvement because he is Yu Darvish’s personal catcher, and he could match up against Jason Castro offensively.  Campusano should eventually be the primary catcher, but not yet.  I am not sure where Kim eventually plays.  It is possible that SD will now have three super-utility players in Kim, Profar, and Cronenworth.  Certainly there are questions abound on Kim, but aren’t there also questions on Lux?  Both Kim and Cronenworth can periodically allow Tatis Jr. or Machado a day off, but it is more like all three will rotate around 2B, LF and DH (with Pham).  That is a bit excessive, and could present a problem.  O’Grady and Mateo are at least washes over Moreland and Allen. So the Padres improvement hinges on the pitching additions.

It amazes me how some fans have this innate ability to overvalue their own team’s player and undervalue the opposition, and justify it.  To seemingly most Dodger fans, Blake Snell is overrated.  Some of those same fans who think Blake Snell cannot make it back to 2018 think Corey Knebel is going to be outstanding this year, similar to 2017.  The difference?  One is a Padre, and one is a Dodger.  Me?  I think both will have very good years in 2021.

In 2018, Snell won the CY with the following stats:

21-5 (W-L), 180.2 IP, 1.89 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 221 K, 64 BB (3.45 SO/W), 217 ERA+, 5.6 H/9 (Best in MLB)

In Game 6, Snell was almost unhittable through 5.1 IP (73 pitches).  If it weren’t for Austin Barnes, Snell very well could have pitched another WS no-hitter against the Dodgers.  Maybe a little hyperbolic, but Snell flat out dominated.  He had 9 strikeouts including Mookie, Corey, and JT twice each.  Some point out that Snell is a five inning pitcher.  Is he?  He was for the Rays (as were all Rays starters), but maybe not for the Padres.  Come to think about it, how many Dodger pitchers are more than five inning pitchers?

Of course some of the same folks who are not impressed by Snell gush over Tony Gonsolin.  Tony, who also started Game 6,  is only 18 months younger than Snell.  In his 1.2 IP, he was effectively wild.  He did strike out 4 of the 5 outs, but he also allowed 3 hits and 2 walks, including a Randy Arozarena HR.  He was pulled so he would not have to face Arozarena again, and Dylan Floro came through.  I think Tony will be very good for the Dodgers, but why do fans think Gonsolin will be better than Snell?  Because one is a Dodger and one is a Padre.

Blake Snell will never approach Clayton Kershaw’s career.  Clayton Kershaw’s last year with those type of numbers over a full season was 2015.  He was excellent in 2016 and 2017, but not at the level of 2018 Blake Snell.  And Kershaw is HOF.  But he is getting older, and his back isn’t.  Kersh has been on the IL every year since 2016, and in 2014 after Game 1 to May 6. 

David Price is a former CY winner and has been an excellent starting pitcher for 12 years, but he has never had a year like Snell’s 2018.  Price has been on the IL quite a bit.  Three out of his last six years, he has spent a good deal of time of the IL.  He has not pitched any meaningful innings since July 2019. 

Walker Buehler is on his way to being an Ace, but he has never had a year like Blake Snell’s 2018.  Management significantly shortchanged him in their arbitration submittal.  How does Walker respond to that.  I think many can argue that Joc’s last season might have been hindered by the arbitration issue.

Julio Urias has been considered a top starting pitcher for how many years? He was epic in the post season, but he still needs to prove he can get out of the 1^st inning in less than 40 pitches as a starter.

Dustin May/Tony Gonsolin – Let’s let them put together a full month of consistent productive starts before calling them better than Blake Snell. You can feel that they will, but they have to prove it.

Walker Buehler is a CY winner in waiting, but you cannot make him better by putting Snell down.  There are still top years ahead for Kershaw, but that does not diminish how good Snell could be. 

David Price might have a fantastic 2021 season, but since the 2^nd half of 2019, it is hard to find a pitcher who has been better than Yu Darvish.  Darvish is a full year younger than Price.  And yet most Dodger fans just assume that Price will be good and Darvish not so much.

May and Gonsolin will have higher ceilings than Joe Musgrove, but Musgrove has already done it albeit with middling results for 3.5 years.  He will now be pitching for his home town team.  He will be a number 5.

As good as May and Gonsolin’s future may be, MacKenzie Gore’s ceiling is higher.  Adrian Morejon is at about the same grade/rating as Dustin May was, and higher than Gonsolin.  Morejon is 22. Just like May and Gonsolin, Gore and Morejon also have to prove it. Otherwise it is just talk.

It is irrelevant how Padres starting pitchers pitch against the Dodgers. Against the Dodgers, Zach Davies may be a better pitcher than is Darvish.  But probably not against the 18 other teams they will be facing.  It is hard to argue how good Darvish has been since the second half of 2019.

Dinelson Lamet was not on the NLDS roster, but we all know how good he was in 2020.  Will that continue into 2021?  It is just as likely as both May and Gonsolin will.

Joe Musgrove – It seems so easy to dismiss him.  I remember a lot of discussion on how Musgrove seems to have improved last year, and how many were predicting that he would be moved to a contender that believed in his improvement.  But what brought about the improvement and will it continue?  After the 2019 season, the Pirates let pitching coach Ray Searage go and brought in Oscar Martin.  This change may not work for the team, but it may give Musgrove a huge bump. Searage has a fastball heavy sink philosophy, while Martin believes in emphasizing the pitchers strengths.  Musgrove is not a strong fastball pitcher, but his secondary pitches are his strengths.  Below is an article on how Musgrove is prime for a significant improvement for a change in philosophy.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/joe-musgrove-is-an-intriguing-trade-target/

It is a somewhat technical article, but if you can stray away from the Baseball-Reference you might discover what baseball executives may see in who they may trade for.  Will Musgrove become a dominant pitcher?  Probably not, but he should become a quality starting pitcher on a contender.  Or Not.

I do not think Chris Paddack will be in the rotation all year.  Maybe not even two months.  I have seen MacKenzie Gore pitch at Modesto.  I wanted to see him pitch, and made the trek. If he believes in himself, he is on his way to becoming a top of the rotation starting pitcher.  If anyone believes that either Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin are top of the rotation pitchers, Gore is considered a can’t miss and better prospect than either.  Adrian Morejon also is a prime candidate for a future rotation spot.  But like young Dodger pitchers who do not make the rotation but can become relievers until a spot opens, that role also fits Morejon.

Make no mistake, I THINK THE DODGER STARTERS ARE THE BEST IN MLB.  But you cannot ignore the questions, and downplaying the Padres starters does not make the Dodger starters better.  Both starting rotations should be in the top three in MLB.  I think that Eno Sarris, The Athletic, has SDP now rated #1 and LAD #2.  He is not a Dodgers fan or Padres fan. He takes a sabermetric approach to his analysis. Anyone can argue that point, but to some, SDP starting pitching is ahead of LAD.  What makes it great is that no matter how much bravado is spewed about either staff, it has to be won on the field.

Position players?  Many will disagree, but IMO:

• Eric Hosmer > Max Muncy
• Jake Cronenworth/Ha-seong Kim > Gavin Lux/CT3
• Manny Machado > JT/Edwin Rios
• Fernando Tatis Jr. > Corey Seager
• Will Smith > Austin Nola
• AJ Pollock > Jurickson Profar/Jake Cronenworth/Ha-seong Kim
• Cody Bellinger > Trent Grisham
• Mookie Betts > Wil Myers

I can argue Max over Hosmer, and Seager over Tatis.  I personally prefer Seager to any MLB SS.  But it can be argued the other way around.  Bottom line, the offenses are close, while the defenses clearly benefit the Padres.  The production delta between most of the comps are minimal with the exception of Mookie over Myers and Machado or JT/Rios.  Cody needs to get back to 2019, otherwise…Smith over Nola would be the next logical widespread.  However, Smith has to do it more than one year and Nola’s offense can be very good and his defense is only going to get better the longer he plays the position. 

I do not think either bullpen is finished.  However, Drew Pomeranz, Pierce Johnson, and Emilio Pagan could be very good and as good as Treinen, KJ, and Knebel.  Or not.  Bullpens are fickle and one year does not indicate how good the next year will be.  I think Tony Gonsolin and Victor Gonzalez could be the difference makers in the pen.  But if the Padres get Trevor Rosenthal to re-sign, that could be a huge improvement over what they currently have.  We still have to wait and see.

THE DODGERS ARE STILL THE BEST TEAM IN MLB, but they are not necessarily improved over 2020.  Don’t take my word for it. Look at Vegas odds. The Padres are improved, but they have not caught the Dodgers.  And while I do believe that Dodger players can and will improve over 2020, I also do not necessarily believe that Padres players will regress as many Dodgers fans believe.

I think this could prove to be a great 2021 season.  It is conceivable that the race will go all the way to the end, and that can only help the Dodgers.  In previous years, the season was over by September 1, and the team took their foot off the gas.  It is not easy to wind down and then turn it on again.  Stay competitive all year then enter the post season. I think it was Molly Knight, The Athletic, who wrote a fantastic article on that subject.

Now I expect there to be a lot of push back.  But my primary point is that just because players wear the Dodgers jersey does not inherently make them better. Because Dodger fans “feel” that Garrett Cleavenger is going to have a great year (based on what I do not know), does not make them any more correct than the Padre fans who “feel” that the Dan Altavilla is going to have a great year.  Because I think Brandon Morrow is going to have a very good year, is simply an opinion, I do not have a crystal ball. The players have to prove it.  And a SD fan (or NYM or Atlanta) have their own teams and games to embellish. That is what makes the games fun.  Let’s hope we have a full 162 games to brag about our teams accomplishments rather than a shortened season, because  I am certainly running out of things to write about.