Gavin, Belli, Doc, and Andrew

That is not the law firm defending Trevor Bauer, but it is the four most scrutinized members of the LAD organization.  I started to respond to Mark’s post from yesterday, but I got called away for errands. It then got too long for a response, so I decided to make it my own post. I am writing this before Game 1 with NYM, so this could all go to H*** before it gets published.

Gavin Lux is a 23 year old former MiLB Player of the Year, who has ALL of the skills, but right now he lacks confidence.  I was disappointed that the Dodgers selected Lux over Bo Bichette, and have written so ad nauseum.  But it wasn’t that I thought Gavin would be a bust. It was that I thought Bichette was closer to ML and would be better overall in his career.  So far, it looks like I was right.  But that does not mean that Lux cannot also be an AS.   He is not going to gain that confidence unless he is in the lineup.  As I have said before, anyone who watched Gavin at Tulsa and OKC saw a different approach.  He was reactive – more see ball hit ball hard.  And he hit all over the yard.  This team is coached to work the count.  I do not think Gavin works better in that environment.  Neither does Corey Seager, but Gavin is not Corey. I do not know how that concept is relayed in team meetings or thru coaches, but it is coached, and Gavin is having a tough time complying.  IMO, a light bulb will go on, and Lux will flourish. Let Gavin try to build some confidence before the playoffs. If he doesn’t, it will not matter.

Not every young player is Fernando Tatis, Jr., or Ronald Acuna, Jr., or Juan Soto.  Most are more like Dansby Swanson and Brendan Rogers, two guys I followed very closely in MiLB. 

As a 22 year old, after a brief positive callup in 2016, Swanson’s OPS regressed to two sub .700 OPS as a 23 and 24 year old.  As a 25 year old, he improved to a .748 OPS.  The Braves stayed patient, and for the last two years, Swanson has had an OPS of .809, with 24 HRs thus far in 2021.  How many would have quit on Swanson on this site?  I will not name names, but you can figure it out.

Brendan Rogers was even more acclaimed as a three time top 10 MiLB prospect and #14 a fourth year.  He was an excellent MiLB player.  He was lost as a 22-23 year old, but Colorado stuck with him and this year (at 24), Brendan is batting .286/.345/.471/.817.  I figure the confidence is growing every game, and next year, Rogers will be starting and playing where Trevor Story has the last six years.

Another player in that category is the Nationals Carter Kieboom.  Kieboom looked more like Kiebust as a 21-22 year old.  After a very brief start at MLB this year, Kieboom went back to AAA to work more on 3B and not sitting on a bench.  When he came back this summer, it was a different Kieboom.  For August, Carter is batting .304/.375/.500/.875.  Think the Nats are glad they held on to Kieboom?  It wasn’t that Mike Rizzo did not have offers.  He just said no.

It would have been so easy for the Braves, Rockies, and Nats give up on Swanson, Rogers, and Kieboom respectively, but all three are starting to show what patience will do.  They are not potential HOF players like Tatis, Acuna, and Soto, but they will be solid every day ML infielders.  Maybe Lux will not get that confidence in LA.  Not everyone does.  But AF and Doc are going to give him every opportunity to succeed at the ML level.  What else does he have to prove in MiLB?  As is so often stated here on this site, development is not linear.  Gavin will figure it out, and when he does, some team will reap the rewards of a gifted middle infielder.  Hopefully Doc will not follow fans knee jerk reactions and continue to keep him in the lineup, and AF will not give up on this player.

Belli has said that after consultation with his coaches and looking at film, they determined that his shoulder is just not strong enough yet to replicate his 2019 season.  He needs to continue to stay in the lineup and build the shoulder up.  He is making more contact, even if he fouls them off.  Eventually the timing and strength will come.  And when it does, how valuable will his bat be in the lineup.  In the meantime, Belli is providing GG defense.

There were some believers, but how many AJ Pollock non-believers were on this site?    AJ has put up back to back excellent seasons.  He is more than earning his $12MM AAV this year.  His 2.4 WAR so far, calculates to a $19.6MM value (per Fangraph’s).  It has been said that if AJ stays healthy, he can be a huge asset.  Maybe the Dodgers’ plan for planned rest days are working for AJ.  His .881 OPS last year has been followed with a .878 thus far in 2021.

The Dodgers have won 7 straight, 12 out of their last 13, and yet have gained only 1.5 game on SFG.  So LAD is doing their part.  LAD has three more with NYM, an open date, and then three with SDP.  The rotation is setup so that Urias will come off the IL and pitch Tuesday, followed by Buehler and Scherzer against the Pads.  If it all works as currently configured, Buehler and Scherzer will face Atlanta, and then Urias, Buehler, and Scherzer will be lined up for the Giants.  It sure is a good thing that the “contusion” Urias suffered allowed the Dodgers to put him on the IL and then lineup the rotation they have. 

An MLB organization is supposed to be built to endure a 162 game season.  During that time, games will not be considered more important than the season.  So when JT does not come off the bench in a winnable 2-1 game against Philly, neither Doc nor AF were giving up the game, but they were not about to risk losing JT for the season if he tore his groin.  Would JT have torn his groin?  Probably not.  But what if he did?  Was it worth the risk?  He has had groin concerns in the past, and really has not been a picture of consistent health in his career.  Billy McKinney is a ML hitter, and as we found out last night, he can deliver. In addition, there is no guarantee that JT would have delivered.  Even JT fails 7 out of 10 ABs.  In a PH situation the next night, he struck out.  If this were a playoff game, I am sure it would have played out differently. And please, I am not comparing McKinney to JT. Under normal situations, I would prefer JT 10 times out of 10 over McKinney.

I am not as concerned about the playoffs.  Gavin knows that if he does not perform, he is not going to be on the playoffs roster, and shouldn’t be.  Who are you going to pitch around in a lineup of:

Mookie Betts

Corey Seager

Trea Turner

Max Muncy

Justin Turner

Will Smith

AJ Pollock

Cody Bellinger

The bench will probably be CT3, Austin Barnes, Tio Albert, Matt Beaty, and Gavin Lux or Billy McKinney. I figure 13 pitchers and a 5-man bench.  Maybe a 6 man bench in a best 3 of 5 NLDS.  I know there are those who prefer McKinstry over Lux.  I do not.  Just my opinion. 

I have come to expect many are consumed by the results on a game-by game basis.  I just think it is short-sighted.  I hear that Doc is not managing with urgency.  I remember in 2017 after LAD built up a 21 game lead on August 24, they proceeded to lose 16 out of their next 17 games.  The same “not managing with a sense of urgency” claim was yelled at high decibels.  They proceeded to finish the season with a rather pedestrian 11-6 record.  They then swept AZ in three for the NLDS, and crushed Chicago 4-1 in NLCS.  They should have won the WS had it not been for the Cheaters.

The Dodgers organization has a plan, and it is discussed with Doc to implement.  It may change depending on circumstances (injuries/suspensions), but the plan is designed to win in a 162 game season.  If they end up in a one game WC situation, I am sure they have thought that out as well.  How many other contenders have suffered an 80% loss in their opening day rotation, lost five of the eight relievers on the opening day roster (and only Knebel returning thus far), and played without arguably their three best position players for much (if not most) of the year; Mookie, Belli, and Seags.  And still they have the second best record in MLB.  Doc seems to be doing something right.

Before I forget, I have to write about something I would not have believed in at the beginning of the season. I was not a fan of the bullpen, especially when they were bringing in the AAAA pitchers. But the winter acquisition of Alex Vesia and the acquisition of Phil Bickford have been outstanding. I was cautiously optimistic about Bickford because I liked him when he was with SF. The results may not have been there, but he had good stuff. Alex Vesia? I did not see it, but how wrong I was. Since Alex was recalled on July 9, all he has done is pitch in 15 games, 17.0 IP, 0.53 ERA (1 run), 0.471 WHIP (5 hits/3BB) , batting against line of .093/.138/.130/.268, 0 HR, 20K/3BB. That is flat out domination. The one questionable caveat, is that Alex has done this primarily in a middle relief role. He has not been asked to pitch in late game high leverage situations, until last night. Maybe he gets more chances in September to see if he can step it up for playoffs. I for one would like to see what he can do in a game save situation.

Phil Bickford has been a quality reliever all year, but for August he has been on a different level. 9 games, 9.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.667 WHIP, 13K/2BB, batting line against .129/.182/.129/.311. For the year, Phil has inherited 19 runners and 1 has scored. How reliable is that?

Blake Treinen has been outstanding all season, but since July he has been other-worldly. 21 games, 22.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 0 HR, 26K/5BB, batting line against .086/.147/.100/.247. For the season, Blake has inherited 23 runners and 3 have scored. Since July, 12 inherited runners and 1 has scored.

Corey Knebel should be well rested for the playoff run. David Price will move into the bullpen for the playoffs. Mitch White will get additional opportunities to show that he belongs on the roster. Hopefully when VGon returns, he will be healthy enough to finish strong. He looked better last night. The team will have 6-7 weeks to evaluate Neftali Perez, Evan Phillips, and Shane Greene to see if any of them have anything left. They will have about 2 weeks to determine if Danny Duffy can pitch in relief. Yes, I know the elephant in the room is Doc’s apparent achilles heal…KJ. Doc has not been enamored with KJ in recent prior year playoffs, so he is not afraid to go others to pitch where KJ would figure to. Last night Treinen closed in spectacular fashion in a spot normally setup for KJ.

Do the Dodgers have their warts?  Of course they do, and they could come to bite them in the behind during the playoffs.  The team is not built for small ball.  They do not do well in moving runners over or getting runners home from 3B with less than 2 outs.  It is frustrating for most of us, but it is who they are.  Last year the HRs were there (thank you Corey Seager).  Belli also had some very clutch HRs.  They do not hold runners on base very well, and in a playoff game that can be a huge liability.  Doc does make some strange pitching changes.  I still want to forget Game 2 of the 2017 WS.  I disagree with Mark with the 2019 NLDS.  Adam Eaton hit a good Kershaw pitch for his HR. But there is no way Clayton should have pitched to Soto.  Adam Kolarek owned Soto in that series.  There was no 3 batter limit, so Maeda could have come in to finish the 8^th and 9^th.  I will NEVER be convinced that Clayton should have pitched to Soto.   Could Soto have hit a HR off Kolarek?  Of course.  Nevertheless I liked the odds better with Kolarek.  But I am not the manager.  However, last year he did not miss many.  Bringing in Floro to face Arozarena in the 2^nd inning of Game 6 was money.  Everyone remembers Doc leaving Julio in for the final 2.1 innings for the championship.  I know it was a surprise to many, but it was not for me.  I remember back to Game 7 of the NLCS when Julio finished the final 3 innings to beat the Braves.  How un-Doc like to leave Urias in to finish the two most important games of the season with multi-inning closes.  Nonetheless he did for Game 7 of the NLCS, so he had confidence in Julio for Game 6 of the WS. 

Can we get a repeat for 2021? I like the Dodgers chances, but that is why they have to play the games. Even the best teams lose in a short series (or a one game WC game). This team is built for the marathon 162 game season with seemingly never ending changes, but do they have the basis to win in a short playoff series? With that lineup and a Buehler, Scherzer, Urias, Kershaw rotation, what team is better equipped to win it all.