Enjoy it While You Can!
It was both surprising and not surprising to me that the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker. That they can make it work is a tribute to the true genius of Mark Walter and Andrew Friedman. Enjoy it while you can, because it will end soon. In the upcoming CBA and talks among owners, MLB…
It was both surprising and not surprising to me that the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker. That they can make it work is a tribute to the true genius of Mark Walter and Andrew Friedman. Enjoy it while you can, because it will end soon. In the upcoming CBA and talks among owners, MLB will implement what we may call “The Dodger Restriction.” I cannot tell you for certain how it will be structured, but it will include the following:
- A Salary Cap – While it may not be called that, it will effectively limit what the Dodgers can spend on players. This could result in a prolonged lockout.
- More Revenue Sharing – You can hate this all you want, but the Dodgers possess the greatest buying power in MLB, even higher than the Yankees. Yes, some owners are cheapskates and penny pinchers, but the Dodgers may have 10 times their resources. The Dodgers and other strong teams in MLB will have to share revenue. Not fair? You can’t play and win without having other teams. It smacks of Socialism, but it has to happen.
- Eliminate Deferred Payments – Shohei Ohtani’s payment deferral is the ultimate smart deal. I think MLB will insist that teams be fiscally responsible and require payouts in the season they are playing.
The baseball team owners are going to insist on an overhaul of the game’s economic system to include a salary cap. Signing Kyle Tucker is the icing on the cake. Player leadership has indicated it won’t even consider a capped system. Be prepared for a Lockout that could last the entire 2027 season and even longer.
It is somewhat embarrassing to me that the Dodgers can so flagrantly taunt other teams with their financial strength, but they are playing within the rules. However, the rules are about to be changed because of them. What’s done is done. As hard as it may be, I look for the Dodgers to win the 2026 World Series. Three in a row may be it, as I can see a scenario whereby there is no World Series in 2027.
Once the new CBA is implemented (by 2028), here is what the Dodgers will face:
- Freddie Freeman will be gone.
- Mookie Betts will be 35 and in decline at 2B.
- Kyle Tucker will have a couple more years on his deal and be playing 1B or LF.
- Will Smith will be 33 and will have to rest more.
- Shohei Ohtani may be a freak, but he will be 33 in 2028 and may decline from the 1.000+ OPS he has put up the past three seasons.
The good news is that the Dodger Farm System is strong and should be producing prospects. This could be the lineup in 2028:
C- Smith/Rushing
1B – Tucker
2B – Betts
SS – Morales
3B – Wagner
LF – Quintero/DePaula
CF – Sirota
RF – Pages
DH – Ohtani
The farm is loaded, so the Dodgers may continue to be the envy of MLB, however, there will be major changes after next season. Bet on it!
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Discussion (68)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) Average Annual Value (AAV) for Kyle Tucker’s contract is $57.1 million. Due to their high payroll, the Dodgers are subject to a 110% luxury tax penalty, making the total actual cost of the contract to the team approximately $119.9 million per year in the 2026 season. Contract and Tax Details Contract Value $240 million over four years CBT AAV $57.1 million (after deferrals) Luxury Tax Rate 110% (highest tier offender) Total Annual Cost ~$119.9 million (AAV + tax) The Dodgers were already significantly above the highest luxury tax threshold for the 2026 season before the signing, triggering the maximum 110% penalty on any additional spending. This effectively doubles the cost of Tucker’s AAV for the team.
Actually I enjoy $4 dogs and $20 seats vs LAs cheapest seat at $150 since I live on the right coast in Florida and the northeast in the summer. With NYC Baltimore and Philly within 1.5 miles I get to watch the Blue play in enemy territory with about 49%of the stadiums wearing Dodger blue. In Daytona, I go to Miami and Tampa where the tickets are cheap and plentiful even for the Dodgers games and are heavily attended by the faithful blue A Giants Dodgers game in 2026 is $150 for a pavilion seat. Despite the great team we put together, not many SoCals can afford to go to a game. The $7 Dogs are really not the issue, the $600 seats for a family of 4 certainly is in LA. My first game was at Ebbets Field the last year the dodgers were in Brooklyn and have been a Dodger fan ever since. Thanks for ty he comments
My guess is Siani gets DFA and eventually Ward gets traded in a package for a draft pick.
As I sit here this morning reading the hate and anger in other fans concerning the Dodgers, I wonder why people don’t mind the success the Astros and the players who cheated their way to the 2017 World Series championship. The Dodgers haven’t broken any rules. Haven’t cheated anyone they played in winning the World Series 3 of the last 6 years. Haven’t had anyone suspended for peds. Haven’t had anybody arrested. Haven’t had their manager suspended or fired. Yet George Springer is beloved I Toronto. Altuve is a treasure in Houston.( not surprising). Bregman was coveted by many teams and is considered a “leader “ on any team that he’s on. Alex Cora is considered a great manager and leader of men. AJ Hinch is hailed as a genuis. They all cheated the game. They all are very highly respected and paid. But yet the Dodgers are evil. They spend money. The owners reinvest the profits. Players want to play in LA. Do you honestly believe any of those I mentioned wouldn’t jump at the chance to play for the Dodgers? But yet the Dodgers are the bad guys. That’s fine. As Mark stated earlier, baseball will probably change the rules on deferred payments. Even though it’s been going on for years. It does take just a little joy out of the celebrations. , but hell I can live with that. It’s better than waiting 32 years for another championship!
I’m rooting for Ward to get to Dodger Stadium with a new team….and slam 3 HRs.
A very expensive treat if you ask me. And not getting any cheaper. I will guarantee you there are fans, avid fans who cannot afford to attend games.
A very expensive treat if you ask me. And not getting any cheaper. I will guarantee you there are fans, avid fans who cannot afford to attend games.
Not the point Matt. The point is that going to a game has gotten extremely expensive. Last time I went to Dodger Stadium, just the tickets for four of us were 140 dollars. Parking was 40 bucks. We went to a Quakes game, got box seats for 13 dollars each, parking was 5. Many people are priced out of attending a game. Especially older people on retirement. Oh, you can sit up there in general admission for 25 dollars, but the players look like ants. I spend around 100 for my MLB.TV since I am a veteran, and I can watch the game from the comfort of my living room. If I want to see major league baseball, I have to go to Denver, 125 miles away, fight the traffic, yeah, we have that here too, pay 30 bucks to park. The difference is, I can get seats in the left field bleachers at Coors for under 20 bucks.
Interesting…. I hope Gonsolin has more in the tank. Maybe the Halos will give him a shot.
One of the two, Siani or Ward, is likely to be DFAd when Tucker’s signing is official. They won’t keep both. Dodgers signed Nick Robertson to a minor league deal.
I expect Kike to return when the timing best suits the Dodgers. The OF now seems set, with Call as the 4th OF and both Edman and Kim able to help out. If Siani has a strong spring, perhaps he’ll be considered, but he’s likely headed for OKC. Ryan Ward, at 27, needs to be traded (probably for a prospect) to a small-market team that can use power. Ward sticks around, I think, only if the Dodgers decide to deal Teo–but why do that? The top four OF prospects aren’t really expected until the ’27 season. Even if they play great this season, they are likely blocked–though an injury could provide an opportunity. Tibbs seems closest to The Show as he has already succeeded in AA ball and is a bit older than the more hyped prospects. Perhaps Rushing can get some starts in left to help him get more ABs. Perhaps he could get some starts at 1B too to give Freddie’s aging bones some rest. Miggy should be Max’s platoon partner. I’m hoping that Kim gets plenty of runway at 2B–something he was denied in ’25. If he falters, both Edman and Miggy will be there. Plus the new guy whose name I forget. And, once again, Freeland should be the first infielder up from OKC. Considering the abundance of prospects who may never wear Dodger blue, as well as the front office’s willingness to spend megabucks on top talent…. when will the Dodgers add Tarik Skubal?
Baseball is amazingly healthy. Nothing wrong with the game. Yes, the Dodgers spend money and win. They make lots of money and they put a great deal of it back into the team and the stadium. Good for the game. MLB needs an evil empire to compete against. The Yankees served that purpose for decades. The players aren’t going to accept a salary cap. Why should they? A strike would cripple the game, impact revenue streams and disrupt the growing popularity of baseball. The World Series was a huge success, ratings up by 20 percent, game seven drawing 51 million viewers, Shohei Ohtani is the most popular sports star in the world and the game has never been healthier financially. It’s not like the Dodgers blew away the league. Milwaukee won more games. The World Series went seven games and into extra innings. Great series. People are still talking about it. Lots of teams spend money. No guarantees. The reason the Dodgers win is pretty simple. The organization is run by incredibly smart people. Eventually, the Dodgers will suffer a decline. It’s inevitable. Maybe they won’t be the “Beast” they are now, but my guess they’ll still be pretty good. Many other teams will find something to complain about. Whining and pointing fingers is the real national pastime.
I’m cool with it. Always be upgrading. It’s doubly hard for us with our exhausted core. They have been going all out for a while. Paid off though.
Yes, I mean mediation. I miswrote.
Teo hitting 6th. max hitting 7th. Pages hitting 8th. That’s pretty impressive! Kim, Edman, Rojas, alternating in the 9th spot. That’s impressive! Listening to the mlb network, several guys are saying that what the Dodgers did isn’t bad for baseball. Nobody’s really saying much about Bichette’s contract. Supposedly he turned down the Phillies offer of 7 years for around 240 million. Every sport needs a villain. We dodgers fans waited 32 years for another World Series title. So why apologize for the success that they have had since 2020? If George Steinbrenner was alive the Yankees would be spending just as the Dodgers are. The Mets plan on using Bichette at 3rd base. Can’t wait to see how he performs there. The plan for their team was to improve their infield defense. Not sure they did if that’s their plan for 3rd. After losing out on Tucker, sure seems like a panic move to me. Gavin lux to the rays? I guess maybe he gets another shot at second base. Hope he does a good job there. Is there any chance kike gets back before June? Maybe one of young outfielders gets a chance till then if Edman isn’t ready? Which one would it be?
I read an interesting article about how right now we can well afford Tucker. Payroll down from 416 to 413 mil because…… Michael Conforto ($17 million), Kirby Yates ($13 million), Chris Taylor ($13 million), Clayton Kershaw ($7.5 million), Kiké Hernández ($6.5 million), Michael Kopech ($5.2 million), Evan Phillips ($6.1 million), Tony Gonsolin ($5.4 million) and Austin Barnes ($3.5 million) made a combined $77.2 million last year and are now off the team via free agency, trades, non-tenders or retirement. Thought it was an interesting take.
Everybody talks about how much money the Dodgers spend, but very little is publicized about how much money the small market teams get from the big boys in revenue sharing and then stuff in their pockets rather than improving their own teams.
We got our outfielder.
They would be happy in that case if there was a gop cap but if they have to share more revenue they will want to make sure the other teams are spending not pocketing the money.
Possible
Sooooo….. Minor leagues still play? If I were the owners, I would have my AAA team play in every major league ballpark for a 162 game season plus playoffs.
no chance a labor dispute does to arbitration, do you mean mediation? If the owners continue to refuse to open their books, I fail to see how the players should see this as a good faith negotiation Rosenthal touches on this for The athletic ($$$) https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6976696/2026/01/16/dodgers-kyle-tucker-lockout-mlb-labor/?source=user_shared_article The Dodgers not only outspend every team by a wide margin, but also outsmart and outperform them. In the current system, their success prevents them from picking high enough in the draft to access future stars like Paul Skenes, Bobby Witt Jr. and Tucker, who went fifth overall in 2015. Thus, the Dodgers are denied the best avenue to the most precious resource in the sport: young, controllable star talent. The only way for them to access such players is through trades and free agency. Now that they are awash in money thanks to Shohei Ohtani, they’re supposed to stop trying their hardest to get good players?
Just to be clear, it is possible that if there is a lockout in 2027 and Tucker exercises his option to opt out, Tucker will only be with the Dodgers for one year (2026.)
Good question. Signing bonuses are not affected.
Mark, you made the following statement above with regard to a salary floor: “The Top Team Owners will insist.” I disagree. The top teams (Dodgers, Yanks, Mets, etc.) would be more than happy to let the A’s of the world spend very little since that would just make them less competitive. It’s the Player’s Union who would insist on a salary floor. For the good of the game, both Tony Clark and Manfred should resign at the end of this season so that two new people who haven’t built up such animosity can take charge of the negotiations.