Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Preview
I am writing this preview while watching the A’s and Astros ALDS at Dodger Stadium. The NLDS is no surprise with the Dodgers and Padres. There is some surprise that the Cubs are out, and Marlins are in, in the second NLDS. But the Marlins are experienced at getting to (and winning) the WS as a Wild Card team, so maybe it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. For
I am writing this preview while watching the A’s and Astros ALDS at Dodger Stadium. The NLDS is no surprise with the Dodgers and Padres. There is some surprise that the Cubs are out, and Marlins are in, in the second NLDS. But the Marlins are experienced at getting to (and winning) the WS as a Wild Card team, so maybe it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. For the record, the Fish were a Wild Card team in both 1997 and 2003, beat Atlanta in both NLCS, and then went on to win the WS. Who are the Fish playing in the NLDS? Hmmmmm!
But I am going to concentrate on the other NLDS…LAD vs SDP. For San Diego, as of this writing, Mike Clevinger is expected to be available and pitching in the NLDS, but not Dinelson Lamet. The Padres had 14 pitchers in the Wild Card series, so I do not see any change in the numbers.
San Diego Padres Projected Roster
- RHSP – Zach Davies
- RHSP – Chris Paddack
- RHSP – Garrett Richards
- RHSP – Mike Clevinger
- RHRP – Austin Adams
- RHRP – Pierce Johnson
- RHRP – Emilio Pagan
- RHRP – Luis Patino
- RHRP – Trevor Rosenthal
- RHRP – Craig Stamman
- LHRP – Tim Hill
- LHRP – Adrian Morejon
- LHRP – Drew Pomeranz
- LHRP – Matt Strahm
- C – Austin Nola
- C – Jason Castro
- C – Luis Campusano
- 1B – Eric Hosmer
- 2B – Jake Cronenworth
- 3B – Manny Machado
- SS – Fernando Tatis, Jr.
- LF – Jurickson Profar
- CF – Trent Grisham
- RF – Wil Myers
- DH – Mitch Moreland or Tommy Pham
- Bench – Greg Garcia (INF), Jorge Mateo (INF)
If Mike Clevinger is added, I would expect either Austin Adams or Dan Altavilla being left off. Since Adams was used in the Wild Card Series, and Altavilla was the only SDP pitcher not used, I will go with Altavilla being left off.
Doc Roberts has already stated that he is going to go with 14 pitchers this round. I would suspect that means Dylan Floro will make the NLDS roster. He should replace either Joc Pederson or Terrance Gore. If Joc decides he wants to stay home for family purposes, Gore will remain on the roster. If Joc says he is okay to go to Texas, he will make the roster.
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Roster
- RHSP – Walker Buehler
- LHSP – Clayton Kershaw
- RHSP – Tony Gonsolin
- RHSP – Dustin May
- RHRP – Pedro Baez
- RHRP – Dylan Floro
- RHRP – Brusdar Graterol
- RHRP – Kenley Jansen
- RHRP – Joe Kelly
- RHRP – Blake Treinen
- LHRP – Victor Gonzalez
- LHRP – Adam Kolarek
- LHRP – Jake McGee
- LHRP – Julio Urias
- C – Will Smith
- C – Austin Barnes
- C – Keibert Ruiz
- 1B – Max Muncy
- 2B – Chris Taylor
- 3B – Justin Turner
- SS – Corey Seager
- LF – AJ Pollock
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Edwin Rios
- Bench – Matt Beaty (INF), Kike’ Hernandez (INF/OF), Joc Pederson or Terrance Gore (OF)
2020 Regular Season – Team offensive stats:
- Dodgers .256 (11th), .338 (5th), .483 (1st), .821 (2nd)
- Padres .257 (10th), .333 (8th), .466 (3rd), .798 (4th)
2020 Regular Season – Team Pitching Stats
- Dodgers – ERA 3.02 (1st), WHIP 1.06 (1st), Batting Average Against .213 (1st)
- Padres – ERA 3.86 (8th), WHIP 1.20 (3rd), Batting Average Against .234 (9th)
2020 Regular Season – Starting Pitching
- Dodgers – ERA 3.29 (2nd), WHIP 1.07 (1st), Batting Average Against .219 (2nd)
- Padres – ERA 3.46 (3rd), WHIP 1.13 (3rd), Batting Average Against .229 (7th)
2020 Regular Season – Relief Pitching
- Dodgers – ERA 2.74 (2nd), WHIP 1.04 (1st), Batting Average Against .207 (1st)
- Padres – ERA 4.38 (14th), WHIP 1.29 (13th), Batting Average Against .239 (18th)
The Dodgers hold slight leads in both offensive and pitching metrics, thus the slight 6 games to 4 games advantage in the season series is commensurate with the numbers.
Position Comparison:
- 1B: Dodgers – Max Muncy – .192/.331/.389/.720
- 1B: Padres – Eric Hosmer – .287/.333/.517/.851
This was a very off year for Max Muncy. He did have 12 HRs and 39 walks, but he struck out 60 times. OTOH, Eric Hosmer, had a very productive bounce back year. He was out for 2-3 weeks due to an injury. He did have 9 HRs. I would not be surprised to see the reverse in the NLDS. Defensively, Hosmer is a 4X GG winner while Muncy (???). Advantage – Padres.
- 2B: Dodgers – CT3 – .270/.366/.476/.842
- 2B: Padres – Cronenworth – .285/.354/.477/.831
The above does not tell the whole story. For the month of September, CT3 batted .296/.374/.617/.991, while Cronenworth was .183/.275/.268/.543. CT3 got hot for September while it appears that pitchers looked to figure out how to get Cronenworth out. Advantage – Dodgers
- 3B: Dodgers – JT – .307/.400/.460/.860
- 3B: Padres – Manny Machado – .304/.370/.580/.950
Machado has a huge advantage on SLG, and the OBP advantage that JT has is not nearly has advanced. Machado is a better defensive 3B, but they both play a lot of shift and Machado is basically playing RF rover against the LHH. Advantage – Padres
- SS: Dodgers – Corey Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943
- SS: Padres – Fernando Tatis, Jr. – .277/.366/.571/.937
Offensively Seager holds a slight advantage (very slight) over Tatis, Jr. Tatis Jr. gets bonus points for his hot-dogging swagger. Tatis, Jr. is a better defensive SS and as a baserunner. Seager is my favorite Dodger, but Advantage – Padres.
- LF: Dodgers – AJ Pollock – .276/.314/.566/.881
- LF: Padres – Profar – .278/.343/.428/.771
2020 was by far the best year for Profar, but Pollock’s power gives him a 110 point OPS advantage. Advantage – Dodgers
- CF: Dodgers – Cody Bellinger – .239/.333/.455/.789
- CF: Padres – Trent Grisham – .251/.352/.456/.808
While the numbers seem to favor Grisham ever so slightly, for the last 14 days, Belli slashed .333/.480/.615/1.095 while Grisham slashed .147/.356/.382/.738. Belli is showing signs of life while Grisham seems to be regressing. Belli is also a GG OF. If both players play to their talent level, there is no question about the advantage. Advantage – Dodgers
- RF: Dodgers – Mookie Betts – .292/.366/.562/.928
- RF: Padres – Wil Myers – .288/.353/.606/.959
While Myers has a slight advantage on the offensive side for 2020, Mookie is a far better defensive RF. Myers has had a career year. But he is not nearly at the level of Mookie. Advantage – Dodgers
- C: Dodgers – Will Smith – .289/.401/.579/.980
- C: Padres – Austin Nola – .222/.324/.381/.705
- C: Dodgers – Austin Barnes – .244/.353/.314/.667
- C: Padres – Jason Castro – .188/.293/.375/.668
Smith has a 175 point OPS advantage over the late blooming Nola. Barnes’ primary position is the personal catcher for Clayton Kershaw, which he is expert at. He is still a superior offensive player with less power than the Padres Jason Castro. Advantage – Dodgers.
- DH: Dodgers – Edwin Rios – .250/.301/.645/.946
- DH: Padres – Mitch Moreland – .203/.247/.362/.609
- DH: Padres – Tommy Pham – .211/.312/.312/.624
With Padres starting pitching all RH, Edwin Rios figures to get most of the DH ABs. LAD has both RHSP and LHSP, so Moreland and Pham both figure to get ABs. Rios’ advantage is his huge power. Advantage – Dodgers
- Starting Pitching – Dodgers – Buehler/Kershaw/Gonsolin/May
- Starting Pitching – Padres – Clevinger/Davies/Paddack/Richards
The Dodgers have never faced Mike Clevinger so that is an unknown. Zach Davies has had good success against LAD with his soft stuff. Paddack has been hit hard of late. For his career Garrett Richards has also pitched well against LAD, but not as effectively in 2020. All four Dodgers starting pitchers have been outstanding against the Padres:
- Buehler – 1.36 ERA, 0.727 WHIP
- Kershaw – 2.03 ERA, 0.977 WHIP
- Gonsolin – 0.66 ERA, 0.585 WHIP
- May – 2.97 ERA, 0.956 WHIP
All four LAD starting pitchers have a WHIP south of 1.000.
Starting Pitching – Advantage Dodgers
Relief Pitching. – The Padres have a good to very good bullpen, especially with Drew Pomeranz and Trevor Rosenthal at the back end. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been solid for most of the year, and have better numbers as a team than those of the Padres. The Dodgers have 15 saves and 10 blown saves., while the Padres have 13 saves and 11 blown saves. If both bullpens pitch to their talent, the Dodgers have a deeper pen that can be dominant. I think that youngsters, Victor Gonzalez from the left side and Brusdar Graterol from the right side, have the potential to be game changers.
I recognize that LAD cannot match up with Pomeranz and Rosenthal at the back end, but with their depth, overall, I think the Dodgers bullpen is better. No Advantage.
All games are at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
- Game 1 – Tuesday – 6:38 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
- Game 2 – Wednesday – 6:08 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
- Game 3 – Thursday – 6:08 PM PT (Padres Home)
- Game 4 – Friday – 6:08 PM PT (Padres Home)
- Game 5 – Saturday – 5:08 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
I am picking the Dodgers in 4, and my dark horse MVP would be CT3.
Editorial Question – Why didn’t AF make a better play for DJLM?
Discussion (108)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The announcers keep discussing how long Doc will stick with May. I say pitch him for a few more innings. Win this one first before worrying about games 4 and 5.
Only Mookie and Cory hit against the Brewers. Now they’re regressing back to the rest of them. Must be a virus going around!
Why do some of the Umps look like bloated pigs? Unhealthy body, unhealthy mind. Can’t wait for the electronic strike zone.
Until now!
Walking Smith to pitch to Bellinger! WTF! Make ’em pay, Cody.
Pathetically incredible!
If anything from this game, I saw a couple nice swings by Muncy and Belly (with 2 strikes)
Is Bellinger actually developing a two strike approach! I like it! I know Jeff. My son was going crazy. You walk a guy that looks like a little leaguer to get to the reigning mvp! But Belly delivered!
Muncy is making good contact. Oh no here comes Jansen.
Good win Great job by the pen. May was filthy. Kenley had movement. A blown strike three on Myers cost them a shutout.
Quite a few balls to the warning track by the offense.
Got there in the end.
This stadium is not gonna help the Dodgers chances.
You got to love the way they broke out in the 6th inning. That’s situational hitting. Not just going for the long ball, keeping the line going. And the pitching was tremendous, despite Buehler not having his best command. What I liked the most:
They didn’t give up or get discouraged. They believe that they can win any game.
Their patience. They kept grinding it out. Even when they had no hits, they kept taking walks.
They are having fun and staying loose. That thing that Mookie does with his hands – that double hand wave – is contagious.
Keep it going, boys!
Great win, May and Gonzalez looked fantastic.
Lets keep it rolling Kersh!
Gotta love the fight in Buehler. He was obviously struggling but he came up big time when he had to. Great pitching in game one. Let’s see if Kersh can keep it going tonight. Let’s see if our offense can break out against a depleted Padres staff! Make it an easy night for Kersh
The turning point was Buehler striking out 2 Padres after they had loaded the bases. That was critical. As for being no hit until the 6th, remember that Cueto did that to them, and then a misplayed ball in left, and they were off to the races. Turner’s oppo field single was huge, and this proves they can win with small ball too. Ball does not fly well in that park. But in Dodger Stadium, they are playing HR derby. Springer hit 2 more there yesterday and now has 5 post season HR’s in Dodger Stadium. Greinke is battling arm soreness and will not get a start today. Phillies GM stepped down. Lakers up 3-1. Close game but they won it.
There were lot’s of opportunities to criticize Roberts last night, but the outcome eliminated the criticism.
• Muncy is starting to look like he is getting comfortable and with a double you see why Doc left him at #4.
• If you thought it was dumb for Doc to take out May after 27 pitches, it was just the opposite. May is slated to start game 3 or 4 and those 27 pitches were just his “side session.” He’s fresh and rested to make his start, and go deeper into the game.
• Jansen closed out the game just fine but his velocity is nowhere close to what it was in early September. He will not close exclusively, but he is a lefty-killer. That’s why Doc took out Trienen and had Jansen face the two lefties. Lefties OPS .518 against Jansen, while Righties have a .706 OPS. I think Doc will try and spot him for lefties.
• In The Athletic today, Ken Rosenthal wrote this:
“Think about it: The Dodgers parted with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill last offseason, lost David Price when he opted out of the season and traded Ross Stripling at the Aug. 31 deadline. Yet, they are one of the few teams in the game that actually can run out five quality starters, a critical advantage in these pandemic playoffs, when both the Division Series and NLCS will be played straight through, with no days off.”
• Now, with one great start tonight, Clayton can repair his reputation immensely. He either will or he won’t but Doc has nothing to do with it. I would imagine if Clayton goes 7, Doc will not let him come out for the 8th.