Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Preview
I am writing this preview while watching the A’s and Astros ALDS at Dodger Stadium. The NLDS is no surprise with the Dodgers and Padres. There is some surprise that the Cubs are out, and Marlins are in, in the second NLDS. But the Marlins are experienced at getting to (and winning) the WS as a Wild Card team, so maybe it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. For
I am writing this preview while watching the A’s and Astros ALDS at Dodger Stadium. The NLDS is no surprise with the Dodgers and Padres. There is some surprise that the Cubs are out, and Marlins are in, in the second NLDS. But the Marlins are experienced at getting to (and winning) the WS as a Wild Card team, so maybe it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. For the record, the Fish were a Wild Card team in both 1997 and 2003, beat Atlanta in both NLCS, and then went on to win the WS. Who are the Fish playing in the NLDS? Hmmmmm!
But I am going to concentrate on the other NLDS…LAD vs SDP. For San Diego, as of this writing, Mike Clevinger is expected to be available and pitching in the NLDS, but not Dinelson Lamet. The Padres had 14 pitchers in the Wild Card series, so I do not see any change in the numbers.
San Diego Padres Projected Roster
- RHSP – Zach Davies
- RHSP – Chris Paddack
- RHSP – Garrett Richards
- RHSP – Mike Clevinger
- RHRP – Austin Adams
- RHRP – Pierce Johnson
- RHRP – Emilio Pagan
- RHRP – Luis Patino
- RHRP – Trevor Rosenthal
- RHRP – Craig Stamman
- LHRP – Tim Hill
- LHRP – Adrian Morejon
- LHRP – Drew Pomeranz
- LHRP – Matt Strahm
- C – Austin Nola
- C – Jason Castro
- C – Luis Campusano
- 1B – Eric Hosmer
- 2B – Jake Cronenworth
- 3B – Manny Machado
- SS – Fernando Tatis, Jr.
- LF – Jurickson Profar
- CF – Trent Grisham
- RF – Wil Myers
- DH – Mitch Moreland or Tommy Pham
- Bench – Greg Garcia (INF), Jorge Mateo (INF)
If Mike Clevinger is added, I would expect either Austin Adams or Dan Altavilla being left off. Since Adams was used in the Wild Card Series, and Altavilla was the only SDP pitcher not used, I will go with Altavilla being left off.
Doc Roberts has already stated that he is going to go with 14 pitchers this round. I would suspect that means Dylan Floro will make the NLDS roster. He should replace either Joc Pederson or Terrance Gore. If Joc decides he wants to stay home for family purposes, Gore will remain on the roster. If Joc says he is okay to go to Texas, he will make the roster.
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Roster
- RHSP – Walker Buehler
- LHSP – Clayton Kershaw
- RHSP – Tony Gonsolin
- RHSP – Dustin May
- RHRP – Pedro Baez
- RHRP – Dylan Floro
- RHRP – Brusdar Graterol
- RHRP – Kenley Jansen
- RHRP – Joe Kelly
- RHRP – Blake Treinen
- LHRP – Victor Gonzalez
- LHRP – Adam Kolarek
- LHRP – Jake McGee
- LHRP – Julio Urias
- C – Will Smith
- C – Austin Barnes
- C – Keibert Ruiz
- 1B – Max Muncy
- 2B – Chris Taylor
- 3B – Justin Turner
- SS – Corey Seager
- LF – AJ Pollock
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Edwin Rios
- Bench – Matt Beaty (INF), Kike’ Hernandez (INF/OF), Joc Pederson or Terrance Gore (OF)
2020 Regular Season – Team offensive stats:
- Dodgers .256 (11th), .338 (5th), .483 (1st), .821 (2nd)
- Padres .257 (10th), .333 (8th), .466 (3rd), .798 (4th)
2020 Regular Season – Team Pitching Stats
- Dodgers – ERA 3.02 (1st), WHIP 1.06 (1st), Batting Average Against .213 (1st)
- Padres – ERA 3.86 (8th), WHIP 1.20 (3rd), Batting Average Against .234 (9th)
2020 Regular Season – Starting Pitching
- Dodgers – ERA 3.29 (2nd), WHIP 1.07 (1st), Batting Average Against .219 (2nd)
- Padres – ERA 3.46 (3rd), WHIP 1.13 (3rd), Batting Average Against .229 (7th)
2020 Regular Season – Relief Pitching
- Dodgers – ERA 2.74 (2nd), WHIP 1.04 (1st), Batting Average Against .207 (1st)
- Padres – ERA 4.38 (14th), WHIP 1.29 (13th), Batting Average Against .239 (18th)
The Dodgers hold slight leads in both offensive and pitching metrics, thus the slight 6 games to 4 games advantage in the season series is commensurate with the numbers.
Position Comparison:
- 1B: Dodgers – Max Muncy – .192/.331/.389/.720
- 1B: Padres – Eric Hosmer – .287/.333/.517/.851
This was a very off year for Max Muncy. He did have 12 HRs and 39 walks, but he struck out 60 times. OTOH, Eric Hosmer, had a very productive bounce back year. He was out for 2-3 weeks due to an injury. He did have 9 HRs. I would not be surprised to see the reverse in the NLDS. Defensively, Hosmer is a 4X GG winner while Muncy (???). Advantage – Padres.
- 2B: Dodgers – CT3 – .270/.366/.476/.842
- 2B: Padres – Cronenworth – .285/.354/.477/.831
The above does not tell the whole story. For the month of September, CT3 batted .296/.374/.617/.991, while Cronenworth was .183/.275/.268/.543. CT3 got hot for September while it appears that pitchers looked to figure out how to get Cronenworth out. Advantage – Dodgers
- 3B: Dodgers – JT – .307/.400/.460/.860
- 3B: Padres – Manny Machado – .304/.370/.580/.950
Machado has a huge advantage on SLG, and the OBP advantage that JT has is not nearly has advanced. Machado is a better defensive 3B, but they both play a lot of shift and Machado is basically playing RF rover against the LHH. Advantage – Padres
- SS: Dodgers – Corey Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943
- SS: Padres – Fernando Tatis, Jr. – .277/.366/.571/.937
Offensively Seager holds a slight advantage (very slight) over Tatis, Jr. Tatis Jr. gets bonus points for his hot-dogging swagger. Tatis, Jr. is a better defensive SS and as a baserunner. Seager is my favorite Dodger, but Advantage – Padres.
- LF: Dodgers – AJ Pollock – .276/.314/.566/.881
- LF: Padres – Profar – .278/.343/.428/.771
2020 was by far the best year for Profar, but Pollock’s power gives him a 110 point OPS advantage. Advantage – Dodgers
- CF: Dodgers – Cody Bellinger – .239/.333/.455/.789
- CF: Padres – Trent Grisham – .251/.352/.456/.808
While the numbers seem to favor Grisham ever so slightly, for the last 14 days, Belli slashed .333/.480/.615/1.095 while Grisham slashed .147/.356/.382/.738. Belli is showing signs of life while Grisham seems to be regressing. Belli is also a GG OF. If both players play to their talent level, there is no question about the advantage. Advantage – Dodgers
- RF: Dodgers – Mookie Betts – .292/.366/.562/.928
- RF: Padres – Wil Myers – .288/.353/.606/.959
While Myers has a slight advantage on the offensive side for 2020, Mookie is a far better defensive RF. Myers has had a career year. But he is not nearly at the level of Mookie. Advantage – Dodgers
- C: Dodgers – Will Smith – .289/.401/.579/.980
- C: Padres – Austin Nola – .222/.324/.381/.705
- C: Dodgers – Austin Barnes – .244/.353/.314/.667
- C: Padres – Jason Castro – .188/.293/.375/.668
Smith has a 175 point OPS advantage over the late blooming Nola. Barnes’ primary position is the personal catcher for Clayton Kershaw, which he is expert at. He is still a superior offensive player with less power than the Padres Jason Castro. Advantage – Dodgers.
- DH: Dodgers – Edwin Rios – .250/.301/.645/.946
- DH: Padres – Mitch Moreland – .203/.247/.362/.609
- DH: Padres – Tommy Pham – .211/.312/.312/.624
With Padres starting pitching all RH, Edwin Rios figures to get most of the DH ABs. LAD has both RHSP and LHSP, so Moreland and Pham both figure to get ABs. Rios’ advantage is his huge power. Advantage – Dodgers
- Starting Pitching – Dodgers – Buehler/Kershaw/Gonsolin/May
- Starting Pitching – Padres – Clevinger/Davies/Paddack/Richards
The Dodgers have never faced Mike Clevinger so that is an unknown. Zach Davies has had good success against LAD with his soft stuff. Paddack has been hit hard of late. For his career Garrett Richards has also pitched well against LAD, but not as effectively in 2020. All four Dodgers starting pitchers have been outstanding against the Padres:
- Buehler – 1.36 ERA, 0.727 WHIP
- Kershaw – 2.03 ERA, 0.977 WHIP
- Gonsolin – 0.66 ERA, 0.585 WHIP
- May – 2.97 ERA, 0.956 WHIP
All four LAD starting pitchers have a WHIP south of 1.000.
Starting Pitching – Advantage Dodgers
Relief Pitching. – The Padres have a good to very good bullpen, especially with Drew Pomeranz and Trevor Rosenthal at the back end. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been solid for most of the year, and have better numbers as a team than those of the Padres. The Dodgers have 15 saves and 10 blown saves., while the Padres have 13 saves and 11 blown saves. If both bullpens pitch to their talent, the Dodgers have a deeper pen that can be dominant. I think that youngsters, Victor Gonzalez from the left side and Brusdar Graterol from the right side, have the potential to be game changers.
I recognize that LAD cannot match up with Pomeranz and Rosenthal at the back end, but with their depth, overall, I think the Dodgers bullpen is better. No Advantage.
All games are at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
- Game 1 – Tuesday – 6:38 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
- Game 2 – Wednesday – 6:08 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
- Game 3 – Thursday – 6:08 PM PT (Padres Home)
- Game 4 – Friday – 6:08 PM PT (Padres Home)
- Game 5 – Saturday – 5:08 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
I am picking the Dodgers in 4, and my dark horse MVP would be CT3.
Editorial Question – Why didn’t AF make a better play for DJLM?
Discussion (108)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Clevinger listed as the starter for the Padres. He has not faced any hitters in a game in over a week. Dodgers have never seen him, and he has never seen the Dodgers, that makes it even. Leaving Rios off of the roster is a mistake. Gore should not even be on the team in my estimation. Rios is not injured. He would not be on the taxi squad if he was. I do not think Lux is a better PH option. I do not think Lux is that big of an improvement defensively either. If Turner’s hammy goes south, he can be replaced on the roster, but he would have to miss the NLCS if they get that far.
Willis Reed starting for the Padres.
I was of the belief that Clevinger was facing TJ surgery. Cortisone shots can only do so much. If he makes it through the Dodger lineup once I’ll be surprised, but then again none of us are really privy to the medical reports and the seriousness of the injury.
On another note, Peter Gammons has an interesting piece in the Athletic today (subscription) on the “Randomness” of post season baseball. He has a few quotes on the Dodgers from Dave Roberts and “a Dodger Official”.
Regarding the Dodger’s previous playoff losses – “For anyone to suggest it is the fault of Doc (Roberts) is ridiculous,” says one Dodger official. “For one thing, it is a total misrepresenting of what essentially has been a building process the last five years, and the current team has been built by a collaborative organization group. We have gone out and traded for Yu Darvish and Manny Machado to try to win it all; it didn’t happen to work.”
Says Roberts. “If something happens to us this October, and anything is possible, then it will ignore the way these Dodger players went at it all season. They played the game hard, they played it right, they dealt with every protocol, every extra night in hotel rooms, every loss of the routine with which they’ve played all their lives was special.”
“As the Division Series begins, there have been suggestions that if the Yankees lose, there could be questions about Aaron Boone. If the A’s lose to Houston, another Beane team bites the dust. If they beat the Astros, it will be another Dusty Baker October loss. If the Dodgers don’t win with the best team in the sport, there might be another round of questions raised about Dave Roberts.”
Well there’s my first WTF reaction for this year’s playoff decisions. As to the 2nd round playoff roster.
Here was my comments yesterday about the roster:
* If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Folks can complain about Muncy, especially in the 4 hole, and they have a case on that one. But he’s gonna play. Who else would. Please don’t tell me we’d be better with Joc in left, Pollock in center and Belli at 1st. Joc is not an improvement in the line up and should be a pinch hitter only. He’s overweight, not a good defender and strikes out too much. Oh, and he can’t hit.
* I would add Floro and drop Gore. That’s 14 pitchers and 14 position players.
* I like the idea of keeping K-Bear as a 3rd catcher for the simple reason is when Barnes catches CK, Smith should DH and K-Bear can catch in case and can pinch hit. Yeah, I know. No experience but I like him there in case.
Rios must be hurt or this makes zero sense. JT better not pull that hammy again. I don’t want Muncy at 3rd and Joc in left. The K-Bear deal is worse. I love Smith at DH when Barnes catches and a 3rd catcher just makes sense.
So, yes I am second guessing this deal and it might be very true that I don’t have enough information. Like, is Rios is injured? And of coarse I don’t have any credentials to question the GM and Skipper. But I’ll stand behind my original statement yesterday: “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
Clevinger is listed as the starting pitcher today, and if he is effective, it makes the task more difficult. I have no idea why Lux was added, but maybe he’ll suddenly become the player he was touted to be, though it seems to be a longshot in this situation.
The Padres won that galvanizing come from behind game against St. Louis, and then went on to win the series decider. They have confidence and momentum, and are loose, nothing to prove, while the Dodgers carry the weight of expectations and past playoff losses. The Dodgers have a better team, we are 45-17 this year, and beat SD 6-4 in mostly close games this season. But we have not faced Clevinger, and in two games against Milwaukee we scored seven runs total, two on bases loaded walks. So we have to show that we can score significant runs against the better pitching staffs in a short series. I won’t make a prediction, not that I have any aversion to predicting, but there are just conflicting elements at play, and it really could go either way. I will say that whoever wins the first game will win the series, which of course is not saying anything remarkable, but isn’t always the case.
The head scratcher is GORE. Why he is even a Dodger is a mystery. And from what I have read, he is simply there as a possible pinch runner. One writer said Lux was added for his defense, which I find totally puzzling since he has been very iffy in that sense this year. Kike is a much better defender than Lux. Padres have not submitted their roster yet which I thought was supposed to be in by 10 am EST. They still have not decided if Clevinger is going to be on the roster.
Rios? That’s a head scratcher!
What a great analysis of the two teams, AC. Thank you. Looking forward to the game tonight. Glad Floro is back on roster. Not sure about Rios not on it though. Oh well, not my decision. Good luck to all the Dodgers. Have a good game and beat those Padres.
Shaking my head
Ríos and Ruiz out
Floro and Lux in
Gore still on roster
Floro is the only one that makes sense to me. Can someone help me out?
Rios and Ruiz is off the roster. Lux and Floro added.
Let the fun begin! 2 evenly matched teams going toe to toe!!
Cassidy said it best- if the Dodgers score more runs than the Padres each game- they’ll win. Here’s to more runs!
OK, I’ll bite on DJLM – he has been amazing as a Yankee, and with 429 career AB’s in Yankee Stadium, he has a .359 BA and .414 OB% – OPS is 1.042.
In Dodger Stadium, in 198 AB’s he hits .242 with .284 OB% and .612 OPS.
So, while I think he has been great in Yankee Stadium, I do not believe he would have been that good in Dodger Stadium. Still, probably better than Kike, CT3, and Lux!
Just my 3 cents!
Comparisons of both teams are in, everyone has their idea of who will win and why, my thinking is if the Dodgers hit with runners on base, they win in 4 games, if not, trouble.
Hope Roberts has Bellinger or anyone not named Muncy in the 4th spot. Play Ball.
The Dodgers are a great road team. Dodgers in 4.
Why didn’t every team in baseball not make a better play for DJLM? He’s awesome! Who hits better after they leave Colorado? I say we sweep Pads! Not enough starting pitching and Dodger bats make them pay!
I am guessing that DJLM is LeMaheiu. I wondered that myself. And Your analysis of the matchup is exactly the same as MLB.coms.