Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Preview
I am writing this preview while watching the A’s and Astros ALDS at Dodger Stadium. The NLDS is no surprise with the Dodgers and Padres. There is some surprise that the Cubs are out, and Marlins are in, in the second NLDS. But the Marlins are experienced at getting to (and winning) the WS as a Wild Card team, so maybe it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. For
I am writing this preview while watching the A’s and Astros ALDS at Dodger Stadium. The NLDS is no surprise with the Dodgers and Padres. There is some surprise that the Cubs are out, and Marlins are in, in the second NLDS. But the Marlins are experienced at getting to (and winning) the WS as a Wild Card team, so maybe it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. For the record, the Fish were a Wild Card team in both 1997 and 2003, beat Atlanta in both NLCS, and then went on to win the WS. Who are the Fish playing in the NLDS? Hmmmmm!
But I am going to concentrate on the other NLDS…LAD vs SDP. For San Diego, as of this writing, Mike Clevinger is expected to be available and pitching in the NLDS, but not Dinelson Lamet. The Padres had 14 pitchers in the Wild Card series, so I do not see any change in the numbers.
San Diego Padres Projected Roster
- RHSP – Zach Davies
- RHSP – Chris Paddack
- RHSP – Garrett Richards
- RHSP – Mike Clevinger
- RHRP – Austin Adams
- RHRP – Pierce Johnson
- RHRP – Emilio Pagan
- RHRP – Luis Patino
- RHRP – Trevor Rosenthal
- RHRP – Craig Stamman
- LHRP – Tim Hill
- LHRP – Adrian Morejon
- LHRP – Drew Pomeranz
- LHRP – Matt Strahm
- C – Austin Nola
- C – Jason Castro
- C – Luis Campusano
- 1B – Eric Hosmer
- 2B – Jake Cronenworth
- 3B – Manny Machado
- SS – Fernando Tatis, Jr.
- LF – Jurickson Profar
- CF – Trent Grisham
- RF – Wil Myers
- DH – Mitch Moreland or Tommy Pham
- Bench – Greg Garcia (INF), Jorge Mateo (INF)
If Mike Clevinger is added, I would expect either Austin Adams or Dan Altavilla being left off. Since Adams was used in the Wild Card Series, and Altavilla was the only SDP pitcher not used, I will go with Altavilla being left off.
Doc Roberts has already stated that he is going to go with 14 pitchers this round. I would suspect that means Dylan Floro will make the NLDS roster. He should replace either Joc Pederson or Terrance Gore. If Joc decides he wants to stay home for family purposes, Gore will remain on the roster. If Joc says he is okay to go to Texas, he will make the roster.
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Roster
- RHSP – Walker Buehler
- LHSP – Clayton Kershaw
- RHSP – Tony Gonsolin
- RHSP – Dustin May
- RHRP – Pedro Baez
- RHRP – Dylan Floro
- RHRP – Brusdar Graterol
- RHRP – Kenley Jansen
- RHRP – Joe Kelly
- RHRP – Blake Treinen
- LHRP – Victor Gonzalez
- LHRP – Adam Kolarek
- LHRP – Jake McGee
- LHRP – Julio Urias
- C – Will Smith
- C – Austin Barnes
- C – Keibert Ruiz
- 1B – Max Muncy
- 2B – Chris Taylor
- 3B – Justin Turner
- SS – Corey Seager
- LF – AJ Pollock
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Edwin Rios
- Bench – Matt Beaty (INF), Kike’ Hernandez (INF/OF), Joc Pederson or Terrance Gore (OF)
2020 Regular Season – Team offensive stats:
- Dodgers .256 (11th), .338 (5th), .483 (1st), .821 (2nd)
- Padres .257 (10th), .333 (8th), .466 (3rd), .798 (4th)
2020 Regular Season – Team Pitching Stats
- Dodgers – ERA 3.02 (1st), WHIP 1.06 (1st), Batting Average Against .213 (1st)
- Padres – ERA 3.86 (8th), WHIP 1.20 (3rd), Batting Average Against .234 (9th)
2020 Regular Season – Starting Pitching
- Dodgers – ERA 3.29 (2nd), WHIP 1.07 (1st), Batting Average Against .219 (2nd)
- Padres – ERA 3.46 (3rd), WHIP 1.13 (3rd), Batting Average Against .229 (7th)
2020 Regular Season – Relief Pitching
- Dodgers – ERA 2.74 (2nd), WHIP 1.04 (1st), Batting Average Against .207 (1st)
- Padres – ERA 4.38 (14th), WHIP 1.29 (13th), Batting Average Against .239 (18th)
The Dodgers hold slight leads in both offensive and pitching metrics, thus the slight 6 games to 4 games advantage in the season series is commensurate with the numbers.
Position Comparison:
- 1B: Dodgers – Max Muncy – .192/.331/.389/.720
- 1B: Padres – Eric Hosmer – .287/.333/.517/.851
This was a very off year for Max Muncy. He did have 12 HRs and 39 walks, but he struck out 60 times. OTOH, Eric Hosmer, had a very productive bounce back year. He was out for 2-3 weeks due to an injury. He did have 9 HRs. I would not be surprised to see the reverse in the NLDS. Defensively, Hosmer is a 4X GG winner while Muncy (???). Advantage – Padres.
- 2B: Dodgers – CT3 – .270/.366/.476/.842
- 2B: Padres – Cronenworth – .285/.354/.477/.831
The above does not tell the whole story. For the month of September, CT3 batted .296/.374/.617/.991, while Cronenworth was .183/.275/.268/.543. CT3 got hot for September while it appears that pitchers looked to figure out how to get Cronenworth out. Advantage – Dodgers
- 3B: Dodgers – JT – .307/.400/.460/.860
- 3B: Padres – Manny Machado – .304/.370/.580/.950
Machado has a huge advantage on SLG, and the OBP advantage that JT has is not nearly has advanced. Machado is a better defensive 3B, but they both play a lot of shift and Machado is basically playing RF rover against the LHH. Advantage – Padres
- SS: Dodgers – Corey Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943
- SS: Padres – Fernando Tatis, Jr. – .277/.366/.571/.937
Offensively Seager holds a slight advantage (very slight) over Tatis, Jr. Tatis Jr. gets bonus points for his hot-dogging swagger. Tatis, Jr. is a better defensive SS and as a baserunner. Seager is my favorite Dodger, but Advantage – Padres.
- LF: Dodgers – AJ Pollock – .276/.314/.566/.881
- LF: Padres – Profar – .278/.343/.428/.771
2020 was by far the best year for Profar, but Pollock’s power gives him a 110 point OPS advantage. Advantage – Dodgers
- CF: Dodgers – Cody Bellinger – .239/.333/.455/.789
- CF: Padres – Trent Grisham – .251/.352/.456/.808
While the numbers seem to favor Grisham ever so slightly, for the last 14 days, Belli slashed .333/.480/.615/1.095 while Grisham slashed .147/.356/.382/.738. Belli is showing signs of life while Grisham seems to be regressing. Belli is also a GG OF. If both players play to their talent level, there is no question about the advantage. Advantage – Dodgers
- RF: Dodgers – Mookie Betts – .292/.366/.562/.928
- RF: Padres – Wil Myers – .288/.353/.606/.959
While Myers has a slight advantage on the offensive side for 2020, Mookie is a far better defensive RF. Myers has had a career year. But he is not nearly at the level of Mookie. Advantage – Dodgers
- C: Dodgers – Will Smith – .289/.401/.579/.980
- C: Padres – Austin Nola – .222/.324/.381/.705
- C: Dodgers – Austin Barnes – .244/.353/.314/.667
- C: Padres – Jason Castro – .188/.293/.375/.668
Smith has a 175 point OPS advantage over the late blooming Nola. Barnes’ primary position is the personal catcher for Clayton Kershaw, which he is expert at. He is still a superior offensive player with less power than the Padres Jason Castro. Advantage – Dodgers.
- DH: Dodgers – Edwin Rios – .250/.301/.645/.946
- DH: Padres – Mitch Moreland – .203/.247/.362/.609
- DH: Padres – Tommy Pham – .211/.312/.312/.624
With Padres starting pitching all RH, Edwin Rios figures to get most of the DH ABs. LAD has both RHSP and LHSP, so Moreland and Pham both figure to get ABs. Rios’ advantage is his huge power. Advantage – Dodgers
- Starting Pitching – Dodgers – Buehler/Kershaw/Gonsolin/May
- Starting Pitching – Padres – Clevinger/Davies/Paddack/Richards
The Dodgers have never faced Mike Clevinger so that is an unknown. Zach Davies has had good success against LAD with his soft stuff. Paddack has been hit hard of late. For his career Garrett Richards has also pitched well against LAD, but not as effectively in 2020. All four Dodgers starting pitchers have been outstanding against the Padres:
- Buehler – 1.36 ERA, 0.727 WHIP
- Kershaw – 2.03 ERA, 0.977 WHIP
- Gonsolin – 0.66 ERA, 0.585 WHIP
- May – 2.97 ERA, 0.956 WHIP
All four LAD starting pitchers have a WHIP south of 1.000.
Starting Pitching – Advantage Dodgers
Relief Pitching. – The Padres have a good to very good bullpen, especially with Drew Pomeranz and Trevor Rosenthal at the back end. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been solid for most of the year, and have better numbers as a team than those of the Padres. The Dodgers have 15 saves and 10 blown saves., while the Padres have 13 saves and 11 blown saves. If both bullpens pitch to their talent, the Dodgers have a deeper pen that can be dominant. I think that youngsters, Victor Gonzalez from the left side and Brusdar Graterol from the right side, have the potential to be game changers.
I recognize that LAD cannot match up with Pomeranz and Rosenthal at the back end, but with their depth, overall, I think the Dodgers bullpen is better. No Advantage.
All games are at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
- Game 1 – Tuesday – 6:38 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
- Game 2 – Wednesday – 6:08 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
- Game 3 – Thursday – 6:08 PM PT (Padres Home)
- Game 4 – Friday – 6:08 PM PT (Padres Home)
- Game 5 – Saturday – 5:08 PM PT (Dodgers Home)
I am picking the Dodgers in 4, and my dark horse MVP would be CT3.
Editorial Question – Why didn’t AF make a better play for DJLM?
Discussion (108)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Clevinger’s pre-mature exit was predictable.
Dodgers look jittery. Buehler having command problems. I’m not sure he’ll go more than 3 innings if his pitch count continues to climb. Pads seem loose, ready to have a good time. I was really surprised to see Clevinger. He doesn’t look like a Dodger. The pressure is all on our Bums.
Gore on the team still. This is what drives me crazy about Doc. He goes with speed and defense over offensive production sometimes. Has Gore ever gotten a base hit in the major leagues.
Posted this earlier but it seems to have disappeared so I’ll try again.
Jim Callis posted this article about some of our better prospects and how they did at the alternate site this summer. It’s an interesting read and makes me all the more anxious to see some of these guys in action somewhere, somehow at some point.
I’m already a big Jake Vogel fan just based on what I’ve read about him. This isn’t the first time I’ve seen a comment about how hard he hits the ball and it looks like he’s a talented outfielder as well.
Other comments in the article about Hoese, Busch, Ruiz and a lot of the pitchers.
Open on www.mlb.comhttps://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/dodgers-alternate-site-reportFor those of us who like to follow the prospects, here’s an article from Jim Callis on how some of them did at the alternate site this summer.
I’m really anxious to see Vogel at some point, somewhere, somehow.
In any case, it looks like we have some guys who will be able to fill in some holes in the not-too-distant future.
Open on www.mlb.comhttps://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/dodgers-alternate-site-report2020 continues to be a bitch… Eddie Van Halen RIP
Ladies and gentlemen Start your Engines!!!
I have a half glass full feelin that Muncy plays a big part in this series… I will now go light a few votive candles…
I know CT3 is multi dimensional but why not give him 2B for the next couple years…
Get well Edwin!!! We will miss what could have been…
Can’t wait to see who steps up offensively for Dodgers. And please give some better 2strike swings! Can’t believe Clevinger will be sharp. Wait for mistakes
More from Doc,
Beaty is capable to play 3rd, but the first choice would be Muncy at 3rd and Beaty to 1st. Belli could also play 1st, but they do not want to take him out of CF.
No Buehler script or pitch count. Buehler will be monitored throughout the game.
Will Smith is currently scheduled to DH tomorrow.
Rios is a loss. He would have been part of the discussion for DH had he not been injured.
With Gore, it is more of an issue that what IF they needed him and he wasn’t there. He may never get in a game, but if he is needed they now have the speed to get a run IF needed.
If needed, Doc indicated that Treinen and Kolarek are both capable of going back to back to back.
Per Doc, Rios tweaked his groin which is why he was left off the NLDS roster. Hope to have hom back for NLCS. He is better today, but probably will not be available.
We really need Joc or Muncy to wake up to make this lineup scary.
1. Mookie RF
2. Corey SS
3. JT 3B
4. Mad Max 1B
5. Fresh Prince C
6. Cody CF
7. AJ LF
8. Joc DH
9. CT3 2B
Striker – Pitching
Tonight’s Dodger lineup:
Betts RF
Seager SS
Turner 3B
Muncy 1B
Smith C
Bellinger CF
Pollock LF
Pederson DH
Taylor 2B
Buehler SP
Jorge Castillo LA Times – ‘Ríos was excluded from the roster after suffering an unspecified injury during the Dodgers’ workout Sunday, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. He won’t be available at all in the NLDS.’
And that’s why Yimi no longer pitching for Dodgers! Ouch!
Eddie Van Halen dead at 65! R.I.P. Eddie
Open on www.cnn.comhttps://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/entertainment/eddie-van-halen-dead/index.htmlMarlins 4 Braves 3 in the 7th. Old friend Yimi Garcia on the mound for the Fish.
Padres hit .311 at Arlington in their 2 game series earlier this season. They hit 5 homers and scored 20 runs. Of course that was against Texas pitching. The Dodgers hit .250 there, hit 5 homers and scored 16 runs in 3 games, one of which they lost when the pen imploded. As for Tatis and Machado, they hit .207, and .227 against Dodger pitching respectively. The Padres as a team hit .224 against the Dodgers with 15 homers and they scored 36 runs. The Dodgers hit .227 against the Padres and scored 46 runs, and also hit 15 homers. Myers hit .333 against the Dodgers with 3 homers, but all of them were solo shots. It should be a close series. I think the ball park, and the better pitching both teams bring to the table will limit huge offensive outputs. Dodgers in 5 and most of the games will be decided by just a couple of runs. The Dodgers had the only blowout during the regular season. An 11-2 win in San Diego. They also had the only shutout. A 6-0 game in the same series.
I, for one, have no problem with the Dodgers choosing Lux over Rios. I’m not privy to the reasoning used by the front office and staff, and I’m going to assume they had their reasons. Rios is a nice player, but as of yet, I don’t view him as a difference maker. Moreover, if the Dodgers lose this series simply because Rios wasn’t on the roster, then folks, the Dodgers have much more serious issues to address in the future.
By the way Jeff, nice thorough write up on the teams today. Very well done. Sorry we both missed on the unusual roster moves that came out today.
There was lots of justifiable criticism and information on Andel Hernandez yesterday. I also think CD Bucknor is behind the dish today for the Ray – Yankees. That should be a lot of fun. Nothing like having the 2 worst umpires having playoff assignments. I guess the actual or threatened discrimination suits do carry some weight with MLB.
I get not needing Ruiz. I have no idea why Lux was chosen over Rios, however. Maybe he has some insane splits in his short time. That’s head-scratcher.
Floro was an easy choice.
I don’t like keeping Gore, but I think it falls into the category of “I’d rather have him and not need him than need him and not have him.” It will be either a genius or moronic move. Stay tuned! I am betting that he is working stealing 3B very hard.
I’m not sure I really care about why Friedman didn’t pursue LaMahieu, but if I had to guess I don’t think the team puts value into 2B.
Defensively it can be positioned effectively to offset some issues. And offensively is there really that big of a delta between the top 10% and top half? I’m wondering, I haven’t checked….
This should be a great series, let’s hope the good guys get lucky and win.
It appears no one on this thread is in agreement with these moves. Neither am I.
I wonder if we might get a rebuttal sometime today?
“The guy on Twitter”?
Regarding medical reports and the seriousness of the injury – people obfuscate, misdirect, avoid answering or flat out lie every day. Perhaps we all know of someone who is guilty of that.
In the final analysis I doubt Lux or the lack of a down roster reliever will make a difference. We are the superior team and if we play like it we will win this series and the one to follow.
By the way, was that 50 push up bet for only the first series? If so I expect a double or nothing offer soon, and the answer is “drop and give me 50”.
Someone (can’t remember who) on Twitter was guessing that they plan to DH Pollock most of the series and play CT3 in left because of the huge outfield in Texas. If true, that would mean they might want an extra guy to use at second and therefore they turn to Lux.
I would still rather have Pollock in left and CT3 at second rather than start Kike or Lux at second. I guess we’ll find out soon enough what kind of lineup Doc throws out there. The guy on Twitter could have been wrong.
No use in complaining about it now. What’s done is done. Chad Moriyama said the Pads will sweep. And he is supposed to be a Dodger guy. I just want the team to play good baseball. I want solid defense and consistency out of the hitters. Any playoff is a crapshoot. Especially this year.
Why Gore is on the team is unbelievable. Rios is not This is why Doc and management opens themselves to criticism. Just like putting Muncy as a lead off hitter to open the season. Just like trying Joc at 1st base. I will bet 99% of us would of started Mookie as lead off to start the season. But not Doc. I know a lot of the decisions are collaborative. However, if I am the manager, I want final say about my team. If not, they need to find someone else to manage. I just wish for the good old days.