Dodgers and Brewers Preview

Admittedly I am writing this without knowing the submitted Playoff Rosters for either team, but I I am going to give it a go anyway.

I have already indicated who I thought would be on the Dodgers playoff roster.  But for consistency:

• 1B – Muncy
• 2B – CT3
• 3B – JT
• SS – Seager
• LF – AJ
• CF – Belli
• RF – Mookie
• C – Smith
• DH – Rios

Bench:

• Designated CK catcher – Barnes
• C – Keibert Ruiz
• Util – Kike’
• 2B – Lux
• 1B/3B/OF – Beaty
• OF – Joc

• RHSP – Buehler
• LHSP – Kershaw
• RHP – Gonsolin
• RHP – May
• LHP – Urias
• RHP – Floro
• RHP – Treinen
• RHP – Graterol
• RHP – Baez
• LHP – Gonzalez
• LHP – McGee
• LHP – Kolarek
• Closer (R) – Jansen

The Brewers have been using 14 position players and 14 pitchers for most of the season, so my best guess for the Brewers based on current rosters:

• 1B – Jedd Gyorko
• 2B – Keston Hiura
• 3B – Eric Sogard
• SS – Orlando Arcia
• LF – Christian Yelich
• CF – Avisail Garcia
• RF – Ryan Braun
• C – Omar Narvaez
• DH – Daniel Vogelbach

Bench:

• C – Jacob Nottingham
• 3B – Luis Urias
• RF – Jace Peterson
• RF – Tyrone Taylor
• DH – Ryon Healy or Ben Gamel

• RHSP – Brandon Woodruff
• RHSP – Adrian Houser
• RHP – Josh Lindblom
• RHP – Devin Williams
• RHP – Freddy Peralta
• RHP – Eric Yardley
• RHP – Drew Rasmussen
• RHP – Corey Knebel
• RHP – J. P. Feyereisen (Replacing Brandon Anderson)
• RHP – Justin Topa
• RHP – Ray Black
• LHP – Alex Claudio
• LHP – Brent Suter
• Closer (L) – Josh Hader

Below are the offensive slash lines for each of the projected position players on the respective rosters.

Brewers:

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
–
Jedd Gyorko	0.248	0.333	0.504	0.838
Keston Hiura	0.212	0.297	0.410	0.707
Eric Sogard	0.209	0.281	0.278	0.560
Orlando Arcia	0.260	0.317	0.416	0.734
Christian Yelich	0.205	0.356	0.430	0.786
Avisail Garcia	0.238	0.333	0.326	0.659
Ryan Braun	0.233	0.281	0.488	0.769
Omar Narvaez	0.176	0.294	0.269	0.562
Daniel Vogelbach	0.328	0.418	0.569	0.987
Jacob Nottingham	0.188	0.278	0.458	0.736
Luis Urias	0.239	0.308	0.294	0.602
Jace Peterson	0.200	0.393	0.356	0.749
Tyrone Taylor	0.237	0.293	0.500	0.793
Ryon Healy	0.143	0.143	0.143	0.286
Ben Gamel	0.237	0.315	0.404	0.718

Dodgers:

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
–
Max Muncy	0.192	0.331	0.389	0.720
Chris Taylor	0.270	0.366	0.476	0.842
Justin Turner	0.307	0.400	0.460	0.860
Corey Seager	0.307	0.358	0.585	0.943
AJ Pollock	0.276	0.314	0.566	0.881
Cody Bellinger	0.239	0.333	0.455	0.789
Mookie Betts	0.292	0.366	0.562	0.928
Will Smith	0.289	0.401	0.579	0.980
Edwin Rios	0.250	0.301	0.645	0.946
Austin Barnes	0.244	0.353	0.314	0.667
Keibert Ruiz	0.250	0.250	0.625	0.875
Kike’ Hernandez	0.230	0.270	0.410	0.680
Gavin Lux	0.175	0.246	0.349	0.596
Matt Beaty	0.220	0.278	0.360	0.638
Joc Pederson	0.190	0.285	0.397	0.681

There were two Brewers with batting averages north of .250 and one was picked up late after being released by two teams, Dan Vogelbach.  The other is SS Orland Arcia. For those of you who may not recall, back to 2018 NLCS, the Dodgers held Christian Yelich in check for most of the series, but had a tough time with Arcia who hit .360/.385/.600/.985.  However, throughout his career, he has not hit Dodger pitching all that well.  In 57 PA, his career batting metrics are .143/.158/.304/.461.

We all have been perplexed by the slide this year by Belli and Muncy.  The Brewers have had their own disappointments.  Two huge disappointments are former NL MVP, LF Christian Yelich, and 2B Keston Hiura.  Yelich had back to back seasons with an OPS of 1.000 and 1.1000. Last year, Yelich led the NL in BA (.329), OBP (.429) and led MLB in SLG (.671) and OPS (1.100)  He had OPS+ of 164 and 179.  After his great start in 2018, Yelich fractured his kneecap in mid-September.  His 2020 campaign did not go as well as expected with an OPS of .786.

After a fantastic rookie season in 2019 when he batted .303/.368/.570/.938 with 19 HRs, he slumped miserably in 2020, with an OPS of .707.  Hiura is supposed to be a very good bat to ball hitter, but he led the NL in strikeouts in 2020 with 85 in 246 PA (34.6% K rate).

But just like with Belli and Muncy, Yelich and Hiura start all over on Wednesday.

Even with the down years for Belli and Max, the Dodgers had four players with a .900+ OPS (Smith, Rios, Seager, and Betts), and three others with a .800+ OPS (Pollock, JT, CT3).  The Brewers had one north of .900 (Vogelbach), and one north of .800 (Gyorko).  I have no problem including Rios on that list who had more PA than did Vogelbach had with the Brewers. 

As a team, the Brewers were 24^th in OPS, 23^rd in SLG, 21^st in OBP, and 26^th in runs. The Dodgers were 2^nd in OPS and 1^st in SLG, 5^th in OBP, and 1^st in runs.  The Dodgers had a run differential of +136 while the Brewers had a run differential of -17.

While closer, the Dodgers still outpaced the Brewers in pitching categories.  The Dodgers led MLB in ERA, WHIP, and Batting Average Against (BAA),  The Brewers were 11^th, 9^th, and 6^th in those categories, respectively.

Comparative Analysis:

1B – Muncy vs. Gyorko – Many of the pundits are looking at these comparisons from a career standpoint, or at least more than 2020.  Certainly looking the 2018 and 2019 seasons, there is little doubt that Muncy outshines Gyorko.  But this is 2020, and Gyorko had a better season than did Max.  Will Max continue to press?  Based on 2020 alone…Advantage (slight) Brewers.

2B – CT3 vs. Hiura – Hiura has gone backwards in 2020 while CT3 has had a very productive year offensively, and he is a far better defender than is Hiura. Advantage – Dodgers.

3B – JT vs. Eric Sogard/Luis Urias – JT had another fantastic season and just continues to shine when the Dodgers need him to.  While he is not as gifted defensively as he once was, he gets the job done.  Sogard and Urias have a combined OBP south of .300 and a combined OPS south of .600.  There really is no comparison. Advantage (Huge) Dodgers.

SS – Seager vs. Arcia – Seager is having a pre-injury season when he was considered one of the top three SS in the game.  He will get MVP vote consideration.  Yes he has had his defensive lapses, but it has not hurt the team. While being the most consistent Brewers bat in 2020 he is not at the same level as Corey Seager.  Defensively, Arcia is not having a GG season either at SS.  Per Fangraphs, Seager is a -2 DRS while Arcia is a -5. Advantage (Huge) Dodgers.

LF – Pollock vs Yelich – If you look at prior history, this is really a very easy pick.  Yelich is a former NL MVP (2018), and had an even better season until his injury the following year (2019).  AJ generally does not get through a season without a significant injury.  When healthy, AJ is considered one of the better offensive players in MLB.  This year was one of those years.  I do not want to diminish what AJ has accomplished this year or to forget who Christian Yelich was and can (will) be again.  Advantage – None

CF – Belli vs. Garcia – Even in a down year, Belli was superior both offensively and defensively to Avisail Garcia.  I have no idea what Cody Bellinger shows up for the playoffs, but I still think this is not close.  Advantage – Dodgers

RF – Mookie vs. Braun – Braun has been the face of Milwaukee for some time.  He is acknowledged as a former MVP, but his PED usage should have stripped him of the award.  It should have gone to Matt Kemp anyway, as he had a better year.  Mookie was the runaway AL MVP in 2018.  But this is 2020. Braun is a shell of what he used to be while Mookie continues to put up MVP numbers.  This really is not close .  Advantage (Huge) – Dodgers.

SP – Buehler, Kershaw, Gonsolin/May/Urias vs. Woodruff, Houser, ?? – I am assuming that neither Burnes or Anderson will be available for the Wild Card Series.  While Woodruff is a good SP, I have no problem whatsoever giving the nod to Buehler or Kershaw, whoever he faces.  After Woodruff…who?  Starting pitching is not a strength of Milwaukee and they cannot compare to the deep LAD starting rotation, even in a short series.  Advantage (Huge) – Dodgers

RP – Arguably, the Brewers have the two best relievers in all MLB in Williams and Hader.  The Dodgers do not have anyone that will favorably compare. But after those two, the remainder of the bullpen is chock full of hard strike throwing pitchers who have a lot of punch outs (242), but a fair number of walks (71).  Meanwhile LAD relievers are more ground ball pitchers that have accumulated 194 strikeouts, but have given up only 49 walks.  While the Brewers have the elite, the Dodgers have the depth.  Not one LAD reliever has an ERA north of 3.86, while the Brewers have five.  Not one LAD reliever has a WHIP north of 1.21, while the Brewers have six.  The Dodgers have six relievers with a WHIP of 1.00 or below, while the Brewers have four. 

I know a lot has been discussed about the decline of KJ.  We Dodgers fans see him a lot, and for so many, perfection is the standard.  In 27 games this year, KJ has had two absolutely horrendous outings: September 8 at Arizona and September 12 against Houston.  While he had nothing in his game against Houston, part of the blame has to go with Doc as he did not have anyone backing him up when it was obvious he was not going to get anyone out.  But in the other 25 games (23.0 IP), KJ has allowed 2 earned runs in 2 games.  He has inherited 9 runners, and none have scored.  His average exit velocity is 82.7 mph which places him in the top 1% of the league, and his xwOBA of .255 also puts him near the top of all pitchers in MLB.  Ken Gurnick has written the following:

Ken Gurnick…”Speaking of relievers, quit blaming closer Kenley Jansen for everything and accept him for what he still is – one of the best in the business, even if he’s not what he was three years ago. He’s not Mariano Rivera. Get over it. There’s plenty of blame to lay before the game ever gets to Jansen.”

Looking at Hader, in 21 games, Josh has had one horrendous game.  In the other 20 games, Hader has allowed four earned runs in 3 games.  Hader has inherited only three runners, and none have scored.  Both KJ and Hader have 2 blown saves.  Hader has 13 saves and KJ has 11.  While Hader has the more potential to dominate, the 2020 results are strikingly similar.

Devin Williams is another Eric Gagne, and the Dodgers have nothing at that level.

Considering Williams and Hader, Milwaukee has the advantage.  After that, the Dodgers have the advantage.  Although I do like Freddy Peralta for the Brewers.  Because of Williams and Hader, I will give the RP advantage to Milwaukee.

Brewers Relievers:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
–
Devin Williams	27.0	0.33	53	9	0.63
Freddy Peralta	26.1	3.08	44	10	1.10
Eric Yardley	23.1	1.54	19	10	1.24
Drew Rasmussen	15.1	5.87	21	9	1.70
Corey Knebel	13.1	6.08	15	8	1.73
J. P. Feyereisen	9.1	5.79	7	5	0.96
Justin Topa	7.2	2.35	12	0	0.91
Ray Black	3.0	3.00	3	3	1.67
Alex Claudio	19.0	4.26	15	6	1.26
Brent Suter	18.2	4.34	22	1	1.34
Josh Hader	19.0	3.79	31	10	0.95

Dodgers Relievers:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
–
Blake Treinen	25.2	3.86	22	8	1.21
Dylan Floro	24.1	3.33	33	9	1.15
Brusdar Graterol	21.0	3.00	9	2	0.86
Pedro Baez	17.0	3.18	13	7	1.00
Dustin May	9.1	0.96	11	3	0.86
Jake McGee	20.1	2.66	33	3	0.84
Victor Gonzalez	19.1	1.40	22	2	0.72
Adam Kolarek	19.0	0.95	13	4	0.79
Julio Urias	6.0	1.50	5	2	0.67
Kenley Jansen	24.1	3.33	33	9	1.15

I recognize that the game is not played on paper or the computer.  But even with Williams and Hader, this looks to be a 2-0 sweep of Milwaukee in the Wild Card Series.

My other Wild Card Picks.  These are the picks I submitted in the MLB Playoff Contest:

• Tampa Bay vs. Toronto – Tampa Bay
• Cleveland vs. NYY – Cleveland
• Minnesota vs. Cheaters – Minnesota
• Oakland vs. ChiSox – ChiSox
• San Diego vs. St. Louis – San Diego
• Cubs vs. Miami – Cubs
• Braves – Reds – Reds

• NLDS – Dodgers over Padres and Cubs over Reds
• ALDS – Tampa Bay over Cleveland and ChiSox over Twins

• NLCS – Dodgers over Cubs
• ALCS – Tampa Bay over ChiSox

• WS – Dodgers over Tampa Bay

Randy Meisner said in the documentary History of the Eagles: “The line ‘take it to the limit’ was to keep trying before you reach a point in your life where you feel you’ve done everything and seen everything, sort of feeling, you know, part of getting old. And just to take it to the limit one more time, like every day just keep, you know, punching away at it. So with respect to Meisner, Don Henley, and Glenn Frey, here is hoping that the Dodgers Take It To The Limit One More Time…But this time finish it!!