Dodgers and Braves NLCS Preview

Today, the Dodgers face off against the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the 2020 NLCS.  The Dodgers have never faced the Braves for the pennant before.  They have faced each other three times in Divisional Series play.

1996 NLDS – Dodgers lost to Atlanta 3 games to 0

2013 NLDS – Dodgers beat Atlanta 3 games to 1

2018 NLDS – Dodgers beat Atlanta 3 games to 1

Before I get into the numbers and position comparisons, I would like to discuss how happy I am that the Yankees are out of the Playoffs.  There are three teams that I detest: SF Giants, NY Yankees, and Houston Cheaters.  Giants did not make the playoffs…Yaaaaay.  Yankees out after losing to Tampa Bay… Yaaaaay.  Unfortunately, the Asterisks get another series, but I cannot see them losing in a 7 game series to a much deeper and more balanced Tampa Bay Rays team.  Without going through an analysis, this feels like a Tampa Bay win in 5.

Now on to the NLCS.

There is a need for more pitching in a seven game no days off series than it was for the Wild Card or NLDS.  The Braves already had 15 on the LDS roster.  If they want to go 16, they could add Touki Toussaint probably as a long man for innings in a bullpen game.  I doubt that the Braves will get upset if they have to jettison Charlie Culberson or Pablo Sandoval to make room.  But let’s go with the NLDS roster for right now:

• RHSP (3) – Ian Anderson, Josh Tomlin, Kyle Wright
• LHSP (1) – Max Fried
• RHRP (7) – Shane Greene, Chris Martin, Mark Melancon, Darren O’Day, Jacob Webb, Bryce Wilson, Huascar Ynoa (Could be an opener to get some innings)
• LHRP (4) – Grant Dayton, Tyler Matzek, A. J. Minter, “The Other” Will Smith
• Catchers (2) – Travis d’Arnaud, Tyler Flowers (Back up)
• INF (4) – Ozzie Albies (2B), Freddie Freeman (1B), Austin Riley (3B), Dansby Swanson (SS)
• OF (3) – Ronald Acuna (CF), Adam Duvall (LF), Nick Markakis (RF)
• DH (1) – Marcell Ozuna
• Bench (3) – Charlie Culberson (INF), Pablo Sandoval (INF), Christian Pache (OF)

The Braves already have 15 pitchers on the roster.  Will they go to 16?  With only two proven starters, and three at the most, they are going to need pitching.  For the post season, only nine Braves have any ABs.  Culberson, Flowers, and Pache got into the game as a PR or for defense.  Do they really need Culberson and Sandoval?  Pache is the Braves designated PR, but he can also play defense, making him an upgrade over Terrance Gore who is strictly a PR.  Touki Toussaint is not much of an upgrade as a pitcher, but he does give them length on the bump, and that could prove to be more important than Pablo Sandoval coming off the bench; something he has not done in the post season.

The Dodgers could have a couple of changes in store for the NLCS.  First consideration is whether Edwin Rios is ready to come back as the DH/3B.  Originally, I got the impression that Doc did not think he would be down for both the NLDS and NLCS.  If considered healthy, Rios could replace Lux.  But a later observation is that Rios is only 75%, and that it is a “game time decision”. Next consideration is whether they need another long reliever to potentially eat innings (Alex Wood/Mitch White) or another short reliever (Scott Alexander/Josh Sborz).  I do not think they will carry the third catcher.  IMO they could use the additional pitching rather than a PR, but for whatever reason, the powers believe that a PR will be needed to score that important run at some point.  I see Gore remaining on the roster. I just do not think that Wood or Alexander are healthy enough, and I do not think that White or Sborz are trusted enough for the NLCS.  I have no idea how Rios’ injury is; however, I do not think that Rios is a game changer, I believe the Dodgers believe Rios has a strong future, so I do not think they take a chance of injuring Rios more. Maybe for the WS he will get better. Not having Rios in the NLCS is not going to change the results. I am going with Wood as a long reliever, and Lux back to the taxi squad.

• RHSP (1) – Walker Buehler (Announced Game 1 Starter)
• LHSP (1) – Clayton Kershaw (Announced Game 2 Starter)
• HYBRID SP/RP (3) – Dustin May (RH), Tony Gonsolin (RH), Julio Urias (LH)
• RHRP (6) – Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Brusdar Graterol, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen
• LHRP (4) – Victor Gonzalez, Adam Kolarek, Jake McGee, Alex Wood
• Catchers (2) – Will Smith, Austin Barnes (Backup)
• INF (4) – Max Muncy (1B), Chris Taylor (2B), Corey Seager (SS), Justin Turner (3B)
• OF (3) – AJ Pollock (LF), Cody Bellinger (CF), Mookie Betts  (RF)
• DH (1) – Joc Pederson
• Bench (3) – Kike’ Hernandez (INF/OF), Matt Beaty (1B/PH), Terrance Gore (PR)

Final Record – Seeding

• Dodgers – 43-17 – (1)
• Braves – 35-25 – (2) – 3^rd best record behind LA and San Diego

Offense as a team:

Runs Scored:

• Dodgers – 249 (1)
• Braves – 248 (2)

Run Differential:

• Dodgers – +136 (1)
• Braves – +60 (Tied for 3^rd with Tampa Bay and White Sox)

Home Runs:

• Dodgers – 118 (1)
• Braves – 103 (2)

Note: This will probably not be a major consideration because of the park they will be playing in.

Offensive Comparisons – Season

Team/Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall
Dodgers	.256	.338	.483	.821
MLB Ranking	(11)	(5)	(1)	(2)
–
Braves	.268	.349	.483	.821
MLB Ranking	(2)	(1)	(2)	(1)
–
RISP
Dodgers	.291	.408	.547	.955
MLB Ranking	(2)	(1)	(2)	(2)
–
Braves	.264	.365	.426	.791
MLB Ranking	(4)	(6)	(9)	(5)
–
RISP w/2 outs
Dodgers	.298	.408	.547	.955
MLB Ranking	(1)	(1)	(2)	(1)
–
Braves	.264	.365	.426	.791
MLB Ranking	(4)	(6)	(9)	(5)

Pitching Comparisons – Season

Team/Split	IP	ERA	WHIP	BAA	K/9	BB/9
Overall
Dodgers	538.2	3.02	1.06	.213	8.64	2.42
MLB Ranking		(1)	(1)	(1)	(23)	(1)
–
Braves	524.1	4.41	1.36	.247	8.69	3.78
MLB Ranking		(15)	(17)	(20)	(22)	(19)
–
Starters
Dodgers	276.1	3.29	1.07	.219	8.44	2.28
MLB Ranking		(2)	(1)	(2)	(19)	(2)
–
Braves	251.2	5.51	1.45	.258	8.01	4.04
MLB Ranking		(28)	(27)	(21)	(28)	(28)
–
Relievers
Dodgers	262.2	2.74	1.04	.207	8.85	2.57
MLB Ranking		(2)	(1)	(1)	(23)	(1)
–
Braves	272.2	3.50	1.28	.236	9.31	3.53
MLB Ranking		(4)	(12)	(17)	(17)	(9)

Outside of strikeouts, the Dodgers are in the top two in each of the above categories. I did review the post season numbers, but because of the small sample size (5 games), and because of the difference in competition, I did not find them meaningful.

Catcher:

Dodgers – Will Smith – .289/.401/.579/.980

Braves – Travis d’Arnaud – .321/.386/.533/.919

Dodgers – Austin Barnes – .244/.353/.314/.667

Braves – Tyler Flowers – .217/.325/.348/.673

Travis d’Arnaud had a career year, but still trails Will Smith in OBP, SLG, and OPS.  Smith has an OPS+ of 164 and a bWAR of 1.3, while d’Arnaud has an OPS+ of 138 and bWAR of .6.  Defensively, Smith is considered a better behind the plate with 1 passed ball compared to 5 for d’Arnaud, and has a stronger arm with a 23% CS% to d’Arnaud’s 11%.  D’Arnaud has had a terrific post season, but so has Smith.  This is a close comparison, but – Advantage – Dodgers.

1B:

Dodgers – Max Muncy – .192/.331/.389/.720

Braves – Freddie Freeman – .341/.462/.640/1.102

Freeman is the projected MVP, and has been exceptional all year, while Muncy never really recovered from his ST 2.0 injury, and has been mired in a season long slump.  Freeman has not had a very good post season, but neither has Muncy.  I am trying to find a silver lining in this, but there really isn’t one.  Advantage (Huge) – Braves.

2B:

Dodgers – Chris Taylor – .270/.366/.476/.842

Braves – Ozzie Albies – .271/.306/.466/.773

Chris Taylor has won the 2B job because of his season long production.  CT3 had an excellent September with .296/.374/.617/.991 – 6 HR and 23 RBI.  At the beginning of the season, Ozzie Albies would have been on many if not most top 2B in the league lists.  But like many others in this weird year, Albies was a bit off.  CT3 had an OPS+ of 128 and a bWAR of 1.8, while Albies had an OPS+ of 99, and a bWAR of .6.  This is an unexpected, but well deserved – Advantage – Dodgers.

SS:

Dodgers – Corey Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943

Braves – Dansby Swanson – .274/.345/.464/.809

I love the name Dansby Swanson.  It has a very southern gentleman sound to it.  Swanson had a fantastic season both offensively and defensively.  Corey had a MVP consideration season offensively, but was not strong defensively.  Corey had an OPS + of 152, compared to 110 for Swanson.  Seager’s bWAR was 1.9 while Swanson’s was 2.6.  The difference was predominantly due to the superior defense of Swanson.  Seager still has a great arm, but sometimes loses concentration.  It is the playoffs, and Seager has had a clean post season, while Swanson has one error.  With his 42 OPS+ advantage this is Advantage – Dodgers.

3B:

Dodgers – Justin Turner – .307/.400/.460/.860

Braves – Austin Riley – .239/.301/.415/.716

This was is not close.  JT has been one of the most consistent hitters on the Dodgers roster since he came to LA in 2014.  He has also been consistently productive in the post season.  This is Riley’s 2^nd year, and he has been below replacement level since his debut.  JT has an OPS+ of 135 and a bWAR of 1.3, while Riley has an OPS+ 86 and a bWAR of -0.7.  Neither 3B distinguishes themselves defensively.  This one is not close – Advantage – Dodgers.

LF:

Dodgers – AJ Pollock – .276/.314/.566/.881

Braves – Adam Duvall – .237/.301/.532/.833

Duvall has had a pair of 30+ HR seasons, while AJ had a high of 21 going into the season.  However, both LF had 16 HR’s in 2020.  AJ had a superior offensive season in every slash metric. And while he did have an error in the NLDS Game 3, he is considered a better defensive OF who can play CF when Belli plays 1B.  AJ had an OPS+ of 134 and a bWAR of 0.6, while Duvall’s OPS+ was 113 and an identical bWAR of 0.6.  LF is an offensive position, and AJ clearly had a better season.  Advantage – Dodgers.

CF:

Dodgers – Cody Bellinger – .239/.333/.456/.789

Braves – Ronald Acuna – .250/.406/.581/.987

Ronald Acuna will get MVP consideration, while 2020 was a forgettable year for Belli. Belli has had a very good last two weeks and post season. Acuna outpaced Belli in all offensive slash categories.  His OPS+ was 155, while his bWAR was 2.1.  Belli’s 2020 OPS+ was 113 and his bWAR was 1.4.  Both players are considered GG caliber CF.  Even considering the small sample size, Belli continues to show signs of breaking through with a post season slash line of .316/.381/.579/.960, compared to Acuna’s of .273/.360/.500/.860. And while this should have been a closer decision, it really is Advantage – Braves.

RF:

Dodgers – Mookie Betts – .292/.366/.562/.928

Braves – Nick Markakis – .254/.312/.392/.704

Nick Markakis is a fine player who has had a very good 15 year career in Baltimore and Atlanta.  He is at the tail end of his career, while Mookie Betts is in the prime of his career and will get considerable MVP voting.  There is no comparison offensively or defensively between these two. Advantage (Huge) – Dodgers.

DH:

Dodgers – Edwin Rios – .250/.301/.645/.946

Braves – Marcell Ozuna – .338/.431/.636/1.067

Marcell Ozuna is yet another having a MVP caliber year while Edwin Rios is just learning.  Rios has a powerful bat, but needs to learn pitch recognition and plate discipline. Advantage (Huge) – Braves.

Bench:

Dodgers – Joc Pederson, Kike’ Hernandez, Matt Beaty, Terrance Gore

Braves – Christian Pache, Charlie Culberson, Pablo Sandoval

I do not believe that either team’s bench will be much of a factor, but the Dodgers’ bench is superior to the Braves.  Joc Pederson seems to come to life for the playoffs and while he may continue to hit well in post season, he could just as likely strike out every AB.  Joc does seem to know October.  Kike’ is a great defensive replacement and is another Dodger who started slowly but had a good September.  Matt Beaty will be a LHH off the bench, and Gore is the PR.  The Braves do not use their bench.  Such as it is Advantage – Dodgers.

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers:

• Walker Buehler (R) – 36.2, 3.44, 0.95, .178
• Clayton Kershaw (L) – 58.1, 2.16, 0.84, .194
• Dustin May (R) – 56.0, 2.57, 1.09, .220
• Julio Urias (L) – 55.0, 3.27, 1.15, .220
• Tony Gonsolin (R) – 46.2, 2.31, 0.84, .193

Braves:

• Max Fried (L) – 56.0, 2.25, 1.09, .211
• Ian Anderson (R) – 32.1, 1.95, 1.08, .172
• Kyle Wright (R) – 38.0, 5.21, 1.55, .243
• Josh Tomlin (R) – 39.2, 4.76, 1.21, .263

The Braves have a very good starting 1-2 in Max Fried and Ian Anderson.  Anderson is a rookie, and it would not be the first time that a rookie succumbed to the pressure of a Championship Series.  However, he was outstanding in the Wild Card and NLDS, so I suspect he will take on the challenge very well.  But after Fried and Anderson, it gets light.  Kyle Wright will go in as the #3, but all of the publications are touting him because of his last couple of starts, including a gem in the NLDS against a very woeful offensive Miami Marlins squad.  I expect Josh Tomlin to be #4 and then ?????  On the other hand the Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and then Tony Gonsolin/Dustin May/Julio Urias in some fashion.  

This is a seven game no off day series, so depth and length in the starting pitching will be key.  The Dodgers depth is considerable compared to the Braves, even though Fried and Anderson can pitch on any MLB rotation.  With Gonsolin/May/Urias compared to Wright/Tomlin/?, the Dodgers appear to be better set at Starting Pitching – Advantage – Dodgers.

Relief Pitchers:

Dodgers:

• Pedro Baez (R) – 17.0, 3.18, 1.00, .159
• Dylan Floro (R) – 24.1, 2.59, 1.11, .250
• Victor Gonzalez (L)  – 20.1, 1.33, 0.74, .176
• Brusdar Graterol (R) – 23.1, 3.09, 0.90, .225
• Kenley Jansen (R) – 24.1, 3.33, 1.15, .211
• Joe Kelly (R) – 10.0, 1.80, 1.50, .235
• Adam Kolarek (L) – 19.0, 0.95, 0.79, .164
• Jake McGee (L) – 20.1, 2.66, 0.84, .187
• Blake Treinen (R) – 25.2, 3.86, 1.21, .240

Braves:

• Shane Greene (R) – 27.2, 2.60, 1.12, .229
• Chris Martin (R) – 18.0, 1.00, 0.61, .129
• Mark Melancon (R) – 22.2, 2.78, 1.28, .262
• Darren O’Day (R) – 16.1, 1.10, 0.80, .136
• Jacob Webb (R) – 10.0, 0.00, 1.20, .200
• Bryce Wilson (R) – 15.2, 4.02, 1.72, .286
• Huascar Ynoa (R) – 21.2, 5.82, 1.66, .277
• Grant Dayton (L) – 27.1, 2.30, 1.21, .214
• Tyler Matzek (L) – 29.0, 2.79, 1.14, .211
• A.J. Minter (L) – 21.2, 0.83, 1.11, .200
• The Other Will Smith (L) – 16.0, 4.50, 0.94, .190

This is a tough one.  The Braves have superior back end high leverage bullpen options, but may not have the horses necessary in bullpen games.  Chris Martin, Will Smith, and Mark Melancon are as good of a back end bullpen combination as there is.  Right now, the Dodgers back end is unknown.  The middle relievers and situational relievers probably favor the Dodgers as they do not have one reliever (pitcher) with an ERA north of 3.86, while the Braves have three.   Although I am not a big believer in the importance of ERA for relievers, especially in a short season.  As a team, the Dodgers bullpen is better in every metric.  The Dodgers have the depth to go deep into bullpen, while the Braves will be relying on their big three (Smith, Martin, Melancon) with Matzek, O’Day, and Green as the B team.  I have become a Tyler Matzek fan as he has seemingly come out of nowhere to be a strength in the pen.  The Dodgers will put one of the three (May, Gonsolin, Urias) into the bullpen for this series.  I do not have all of the facts, and I have not spoken to any of the coaches, but in a vacuum, I would put Tony Gonsolin at the back end of the bullpen.  Of the three, IMO he has the best pitching repertoire to succeed in high leverage situations.  He can help win a WS ring this year as a back end high leverage reliever, and get back to starting next year. I would still have an opener for Urias, so he does not have to pitch the 1^st.  I like the Braves back end, but I also like the Dodgers depth.  I am going to call this a draw because of the unknown usage in a 7 game no off day series.  Advantage – Even.

The Dodgers faced a far tougher opponent in the NLDS but did not have to play more than did the Braves.  The Braves faced two of the weakest offensive teams, while the Dodgers faced off against an offense (San Diego) as good as LAD or ATL.  I have no idea what kind of rivalry exists between the Braves and Fish, but I doubt that it is nearly as intense as with the Dodgers and Padres.  The Braves have a couple of big advantages over the Dodgers at 1B and DH, and a slimmer advantage in CF.  But the Dodgers figure to dominate the other positions and overall pitching. 

I pick the Dodgers in 5.