Corey the Key To the Playoffs?

The Dodgers will be entering the playoffs as the overwhelming favorite to capture their first World Series championship since 1988.  They will start the playoffs as the best team in MLB; however, there have been more than a handful of Wild Card teams that have won the WS, and by definition they were not the best team in MLB for the season.  But they were the best at the end.  Thus, getting out of the Wild Card round will be the most daunting, especially this year.  The Reds have a fantastic opportunity with their three starters in Bauer, Castillo, and Gray to make it to the NLDS. It is a bit comforting that the Dodgers will not face the Reds in the Wild Card series.

I believe the Dodger pitching is outstanding, but even though their numbers may disagree, I do not believe they are elite.  As a team they are exceptional, but none of the players are at the elite level in 2020, and every one of them is vulnerable.  So if the Dodgers are going to win, they are going to need their bats.  I am not saying they have to outscore the pitching, but they do have to continue their 5-6 runs per game in order to ensure success.

For the past several years of playoffs, the stars have not always shown up.  But this year, they are going to need to.  Mookie is the difference maker in this 2020 roster, and he has certainly been better than advertised IMO.  But the team will need at others to step up. 

This season, JT has been his outstanding self, and he will be needed to continue in that role.  CT3 and Will Smith had break through offensive years, and either one is capable of being the offensive leader of this team.  AJ Pollock has shown again why he is a terrific run producer when he is healthy, and he appears to be healthy this year.  Neither Cody Bellinger nor Max Muncy have had what they would consider a productive year indicative of their talents.  However, October brings a new season, and both are capable.  If one, or preferably both get hot, the team will score more than enough runs to win.

That brings me to who must stand out this playoff season for the Dodgers to win it all…Corey Seager.  Corey has had an outstanding season and is worthy of MVP votes.  He will not get it, but should be in the top ten.  For his first three years, he was considered one of the top three SS in all of baseball, and then the injuries set in.  He had a TJ surgery and a hip surgery in 2018.  He spent 2019 trying to regain the health and strength he had prior to his surgeries.  And yet he still led the league in doubles.

2020 has been a resurgent year for Corey and he has had to do it without his use of the video room which has been banned for in-game review.  When not batting, playing defense, or in the On Deck circle, Seager was looking at video of his previous AB.  While he has been productive throughout the game, as can be seen by his production from innings, he has been more productive in innings 1-3.

• Innings 1-3 – .333/.386/.753/1.139 – 10 HRs
• Innings 4-6 – .328/.343/.597/.940 – 4 HRs
• Innings 7-9 – .302/.397/.434/.831 – 1 HR

Corey takes a lot of time after the game to review his ABs to see where he needed adjustment.  He has always felt comfortable going on feel,

“But sometimes feels are wrong,” he said. “I go to look at the film after the game, and I thought I was doing one thing and I really wasn’t. There’s definitely a lot of ABs that, if I had film, I would’ve been able to change things.”

If the players are allowed to view video during the games next year, Seager will be reviewing after his first AB and continue throughout the season.

Seager has reached base in 44 of the 48 games he has batted at least twice.  His wRC+ is 64 percent better than league average which places him 9^th among qualified hitters, just ahead of Mike Trout.  Seager and Trout were tied for fourth-best average exit velocity across baseball.

Batting second, Seager figures to get up maybe 5 times a game.  For 2020, his metrics for 2 outs, RISP is .448/.500/.724/1.224, so there is a chance that Seager will be coming up in a critical situation, and there isn’t anyone else the Dodgers would rather see, or opponents not see come up,  in that situation.  He doesn’t always come through, as nobody does.  But he has been successful in that role.  For his career, his metrics for 2 outs, RISP is .342/.416/.586/1.002.

Like many Dodger stars, Seager has not been very productive during the playoffs, but hopefully 2020 will be different.  IMO, Seager is the key to winning the WS.  He does not have to be MVP in any of the series. Maybe it will be Mookie, or CT3, or Fresh Prince, or Max, or JT, or Belli, or whoever gets overly hot during a series, but Corey just needs to be consistent.

Last night’s game was a meaningless game that the Dodgers were still able to win.  Gonsolin had one very poor inning as he did last game.  While I think Gonsolin for one inning can be unhittable in a late inning high leverage situation, he still needs to be considered for the #3 starter.  I think the Dodgers can select either May, Urias, or Gonsolin as the #3, and they will be fine. 

Sunday will be more fun scoreboard watching than another meaningless game.  I just want San Diego to beat the hated ones.  I do not want the Giants in the playoffs.  I will be more than happy to take my chances with Milwaukee or Philadelphia or St. Louis.