Coors Field Hangover

While most everyone was saying that DJLM was a guarantee to re-sign with NYY, there are comments emanating from Cashman that indicate that DJLM is not a slam dunk.  However, the negotiations have gone nowhere in a while.  Could it be that some other team is making headway into the negotiations causing Cashman some concern? 

I have been a DJLM advocate for nearly the last three years.  I was disappointed that DJLM ended up with NYY, while after the 2018 season many of the baseball pundits scribed how perfect a fit he would be in the LAD lineup.  Alas it was not meant to be.

There are a number of current pundits who are now hinting that LAD could be the perfect place for DJLM…again.  I have maintained for the last several years that DJLM should be a Dodger.  But he likes it back east, and everyone thinks that Cashman will find a way to get him signed.  I read over the weekend that NYY and DJLM were $25MM apart.  DJLM is looking for $100MM over 5 years, while NYY is offering 4 years at $75MM.  Signing DJLM could solve a lot of problems for the Dodgers.  Would they be willing to come closer to meeting DJLM’s demands?  It is not my money, so I don’t mind spending it.

I know some say that DJLM is a product of Yankee Stadium.  Of course that is what they said about him in Colorado.  The discussion was re-energized with the Nolan Arenado rumors.  Some Rockies players have grumbled in recent seasons about a lack of available resources in their attempt to overcome Coors Field and its inherent disadvantages. When they approached the front office for help, those players were often turned away by an analytics team overwhelmed with other duties.  The Rockies have not only not addressed the lack of analytical help, but they have also lost 6 more analysts.

Charlie Blackmon was especially getting tired of the change of conditions when leaving Coors.

  “The hardest part for me about playing in Denver is, when you leave Denver, the ball acts differently out of the pitcher’s hand,” Charlie Blackmon said. “The only variable is the atmosphere. But unfortunately, that one little variable is the difference between me getting a hit and me striking out on the same pitch.” 

The most extreme road trips were going from Denver to SF and sea level, and the huge adjustment the Rockies hitters had to face.

In 2018, in the midst of a run of 15 losses in 18 games, and Blackmon had had enough.  In NYY while facing off against his former teammate DJLM, he gathered his coaches in the office and went over his plans. Together with hitting coach Dave Magadan, they created an idea to cure the so-called “Coors Field hangover,” an effect that often sees the Rockies struggle at the plate over the first game or more on road trips, as pitches move differently at sea level compared to the thin air and high elevation in Denver.

Initially, the plan was strictly for Blackmon.  He was prepared to do the necessary pre-game changes to make it happen.  If it worked for him, maybe the rest of the team could pick up on it.  But those changes had to come from Manager Bud Black and his staff.  Per an article authored by Nick Groke, The Athletic,

Blackmon lobbied for a change in work habits, a rethinking of how they prepare before the first game of a road trip. On any given day during a season, Rockies hitters take batting practice on the field in a turtle shell cage. A coach lobs pitches from behind an L screen and hitters fall into the rhythm of their swings in a rotation of four or five batters at a time teeing off on 15 or so pitches apiece. On occasion, they will take individual instruction with a coach in a netted indoor batting room.

“If I go to practice, and I just murder every ball over the fence, that’s not how the game’s gonna be, right?” Blackmon said.

Blackmon devised a plan to speed up his adjustment on the road. He wanted to reset his strike zone sights, to feel what a hard slider or an elevated fastball might look like later that night. Instead of waiting for an at-bat or a game or even longer to tell him how to read pitches, he wanted to accomplish the same in a batting cage.

He started using a pitching machine that could duplicate pitches with high spin rates and velocity, a three-rotor machine he could tune to mimic that night’s pitcher. If Blackmon was set to face Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium, he could tune the machine for 12-6 curveballs and deep-diving sliders. If it was Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco, he could dial up sweeping fastballs.

Shortly thereafter, other players started to follow Blackmon’s approach.  Results? The metric that the Rockies used and that Groke wrote about was Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG).  xSLG was formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

2019 Road xSLG	Before NYC	After NYC
–
Charlie Blackmon	0.405	0.494
Nolan Arenado	0.418	0.457
Trevor Story	0.413	0.335
Ryan McMahon	0.338	0.431
Garrett Hampson	0.254	0.448

Coming in full circle, the discussion got back to DJLM.  Per Blackmon, “But not only is he the same player he was in Denver, he’s actually better. He’s better than he was when he was having to jump back and forth in and out of altitude.”  Ironically, Nolan Arenado also discussed DJLM.

“DJ is a perfect example of it. There are scouts and teams that get it, that Denver helps and hurts. Some of them understand the physical toll here and it crosses their minds that, ‘Hey, if we get him out of there, maybe physically he’ll be even better. ’You realize how good players are who play here and that they can play anywhere.”

LeMahieu, of course, is not the first former Rockies player to succeed outside of Coors Field. Ellis Burks played five seasons in Colorado then improved over his next three in San Francisco, even into his mid-30s. Larry Walker made a case for the Hall of Fame in a decade in Denver before getting traded to St. Louis, where he helped the Cardinals to a World Series appearance that season and an NL Championship Series in his final season. Most recently, Corey Dickerson became an All-Star in Tampa Bay after establishing himself as an effective hitter in Colorado before getting traded.

Maybe the Coors Field Hangover has more of an impact on the negative road metrics than a positive home metrics.  DJLM had less than a 10% K rate in 2020 and less than 14% K rate in 2019.  I doubt that Yankee Stadium assisted DJLM on making contact.  DJLM just adapts because he is an exceptional hitter.  With that as a preface, I fully expect to see DJLM back in a NYY uniform for 2021…

I have also wanted Corey Kluber for 3 years.  However, I am not blocking May or Gonsolin or Gray or any of the 2020 draft picks for Corey.  The word is that Kluber will either sign with NYY or Boston.  Again he is an East Coast guy.  Per Peter Gammons:

One of the most interesting figures for a Yankee-Red Sox scrum is Corey Kluber. He has been throwing at Eric Cressey’s facilities in Hudson, Ma. and Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Those watching him feel he will come back close to his 2018 level, as the shoulder procedure that ended his 2020 season was not considered complicated. Cressey is the Yankees’ director of conditioning and rehabilitation. Corey and Amanda Kluber and their daughters live in Winchester, Ma., not far from Pedro Martínez, and Kluber has worked out for several years with Cressey at his Hudson facility; Amanda grew up in Winchester, as well. Kluber has been a great pitcher, and he is potentially a tremendous influence on either staff’s young pitchers.

Plus, Kluber’s agent is also Chris Sale’s agent.  Boston is not ready to make any determination of their specific needs (they do need SP) and how to address all of them, so his agent is in no hurry until he can get some concrete feedback from Boston.  Kluber is planning on throwing in front of interested teams in January.  Kluber is a veteran and former CY winner.  He is not worried about not getting signed.  I have no doubt that he is going to get some offer in NY or Boston or DC or Philly…

I doubt that AF will spend more than one phone call on Kluber, and I doubt that LAD will have any significant scout at the throwing session .