Contract Extensions The New Free Agency?
It must have been painful for some of these free agents going through contract negotiations the last couple of years. Led by AF, most teams are not all that keen on signing over age players/pitchers to long term $100MM + deals, and the players’ agents are having a rough time talking their clientele into accepting a deal much less than what they originally believed would be available, but probably closer
It must have been painful for some of these free agents going through contract negotiations the last couple of years. Led by AF, most teams are not all that keen on signing over age players/pitchers to long term $100MM + deals, and the players’ agents are having a rough time talking their clientele into accepting a deal much less than what they originally believed would be available, but probably closer to their fair value. Not wanting to experience what Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are experiencing right now (and Moustakas the last two years), some of these players are re-evaluating their desire to enter free agency and looking into signing extensions before they get to that status. It sure seems like the extensions are coming hot and heavy this year. And this year they are not reserved strictly for youngsters with the club buying out arbitration and FA years.
To the best of my knowledge, the following have signed significant extensions:
Aaron Nola – Phillies RHSP – 4 years $45MM; 2023 club option $16MM, $4MM buyout.
Luis Severino – NYY RHSP – 4 years $40MM; 2023 club option $15MM, $2.75MM buyout.
Aaron Hicks – NYY OF – 7 years $70MM (2019-2025); club option 2026, $1MM buyout.
Brandon Lowe – Tampa 2B – 6 years $24MM; club option 2025 $10.5MM, $1MM buyout; club option 2026 $10.5MM, $500K buyout.
Nolan Arenado – Rockies 3B – 8 years $260MM, with opt out after 2021 season.
Mike Trout – Angels OF – 12 years $426.5MM.
Blake Snell – Tampa LHSP (2018 CY Winner) – 5 years $50MM.
Alex Bregman – Houston 3B – 5 year $100MM (2020-2024).
Miles Mikolas – Cardinals RHSP – 4 years (2020-2023) $68MM
Carlos Carrasco – Indians RHSP – 4 years $47MM
Eloy Jimenez – ChiSox OF (Rookie – No service time) – 6 year $40MM + 2 option years at $32MM ($3MM buyout); $43MM guaranteed; $75MM maximum if both options exercised.
Justin Verlander – Astros RHSP – 2 years $66MM (2020-2021).
Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals 1B – 5 years $130MM (2020-2024).
Chris Sale – BoSox LHSP – 5 years $145MM (2020-2024); opt out after 2022 season.
Kyle Hendricks – Cubs RHSP – 4 year $55.5MM (2020-2023); Vesting option 2024 $16MM, $1.5MM buyout.
Jacob deGrom – Mets RHSP – 4 year $120MM (2020-2024).
Other extensions with less grandiose contracts include:
Sonny Gray – Reds RHSP – 3 years (2020-2022) $30.50MM
Max Kepler – Twins OF – 5 years $35MM
Jorge Polanco – Twins SS – 5 years, $25.75MM
Raisel Iglesias – Reds Closer – 3 years $24.125MM
Ryan Pressly – Astros RHRP – 2 years (2020-2021) $17.5MM
Whit Merrifield – KC 2B – 4 years $16.25MM
Jose Leclerc – Rangers Closer – 4 years $14.75MM
Tampa Bay is a leader in these early extensions and have two more that they are likely to vigorously pursue; Willy Adames (SS), and Brent Honeywell (RHSP). The Yankees are looking to extend Dellin Betances (RHRP). There have been multiple players who have declined to discuss extensions, with Mookie Betts being the biggest name. Although I do expect the BoSox to go full out to get a deal done with Mookie.
What if anything does that portend for the Dodgers. AF is not at all opposed to signing players to extensions, even some large dollar extensions. I can see the Dodgers reaching out to Scott Boras to try and tie Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Julio Urias to long term extensions. Would Seager sign a deal somewhere between Jose Altuve (a Boras client) at 5 years, $151MM and Alex Bregman at 5 years $100MM?
Would Cody sign somewhere between Aaron Hicks and Paul Goldschmidt? Would Urias and Buehler sign for something slightly north of Aaron Nola and Luis Severino? $40MM to $50MM is nothing to sneeze at, but it would be dwarfed by what all four pitchers could make if they stayed healthy for their arbitration and pre-arbitration years. Both player and team accept some level of risk when entering these extension negotiations. But both player and team do not have to worry about contract negotiations or arbitration cases for the next several years. Most of these extensions occur during the players early earning years and they are hopeful of getting some of that back once they reach FA and can sign for the big dollars. The club is trying to hold onto that prized player/pitcher for as long as they can, so the dollars they expend to get out of the arbitration and one-two-three years of FA seems worth the overpay in the early years.
But those big dollars are drying up for the 30+ group. Paul Goldschmidt signed an early contract extension and was looking to sign a sizable FA contract next year to make up for it. The Cardinals stepped up and I do not believe that Goldy could have garnered much more than what he ultimately signed for. MadBum signed a very team friendly (as it turns out) long term extension with very affordable options and is now due to enter FA as a 30-year-old with some questions. He is not going to get a Zack Greinke contract. Not a David Price/Marx Scherzer contract. He is not going to even get a Stephen Strasburg contract. Somebody will pay him in the range of Chris Sale and/or Jon Lester, and they will get a quality pitcher for two to three years. It would be more realistic if Bumgarner was offered and accepted a Clayton Kershaw 3 year $93MM contract. However, I would not be at all surprised to see MadBum traded to Atlanta this summer and then AA signing him to a 5-year extension.
Besides the big names (Corey, Cody, Walker, Julio), who else could be candidates for extensions? Two that come to mind are Joc Pederson and Kike’ Hernandez. Would Joc accept a deal somewhere around a Max Kepler contract? Would Kike’ accept a deal between Polanco and Merrifield. What about Max Muncy?
With $80MM plus coming off the books this year, this winter seems to be the perfect time to try to lock up some of these players to fixed long term deals. The Dodgers were not too frugal when it came to JT, Hill, or Kenley, so I do believe that any extension offer would be at FMV. Scott Boras is the agent for several key Dodgers, so it might be unrealistic to expect all of Seager, Belli, and Urias to sign before FA, but if at least two of them could be extended, that makes the team less reliable on what they may have to pay for in the open FA market.
I thought Ryu was a perfect three-year candidate this past winter. 3-4 years at 33 (next March)? With shoulder surgery history? Does not seem likely, but I give Ryu credit. He is at least gambling on himself being a big success this year. If so, the Dodgers will be the big benefactor.
Extensions could be the new FA deal. Time will tell. But more importantly the players and management are going to need to aggressively address this issue before the next CBA.
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Discussion (117)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Some poster on here are in for a long season, the Dodgers may lose another 60 games before this season is over! No team wins every game. All teams lose some games they should have won.
I agree with the tone of your post, Mark. But I fear what the long term impact could be.
The changing marketplace in baseball seems to be to lock up your young stars (or potential stars) to a long term, less than maximum value contract playing on their fear of injury or some sort of social faux pas which would dramatically impact their earning potential. The game of the owners seems to be designed to keep players from becoming unrestricted free agents before they have moved into their thirties.
Because everyone now assumes that these players will have rapidly declining skill sets and are thus a terrible investment on a four or five year contract, the marketplace for the proven professional has been significantly reduced. There have been numerous contracts of this nature signed late in the free agent season and just before the start of the regular season.
The more often this occurs, the more reluctant all players become to test the free agent market and the more easily the owners can force even aging stars who have proven ongoing performance stats and limited injury history to accept short term contracts at $$$ below their value in an open marketplace.
Should this trend continue into the next labor contract, I see this as a real issue that the players would be driven to want rectified because it will eventually effect every player at one or more points in their careers. I also fear that this issue would drive the best athletes in America and other nations of all ages to pursue other sports through their teen years and avoid the sport which would decrease the quality of players in the decades ahead.
The owners need to think of what is best for the sport of BASEBALL for the next 150 years rather than what is best for their wallets now and in the short term. I wonder if there is a need for the players to have a person with the same decision making power as the Commissioner so that decisions have to be equitably agreed upon by a 2/3 majority of all parties involved. Just a thought to be pondered, don’t you think?
59, If you were in charge. the Dodgers would have an exhausted pitching staff by the time they get to mid-May. Check out the schedule, relax and enjoy the ride. I don’t know if we have a good manager the results overall make me glad that I’m a Dodgers fan.
One thing I found humorous last night, if anything can be humorous in last nights game, was the big smile on Bellinger’s face when Ryu hit the first pitch foul into the Right field stands. It was a foul ball. Go Dodgers.
Blue Mom, yes that was pretty sweet. And Ryu had a pretty contained, but telling, grin jogging back to the dugout. He thought it was pretty funny.
A Tale of Two Dodger Teams.
Hopefully tonight Godly’s curve isn’t working for him, because that is mainly what can make him a tough pitcher to hit.
And if he doesn’t have his curve, he is very hittable.
I do not remember who wrote it, but somebody intimated that we should not second guess Doc for taking out Strip because after all he was only starting because of injuries. While technically that is true, Strip was in the rotation from the beginning of Spring because he was replacing Kersh who did not pitch at all. Strip started 5 games and led the team in innings pitched with 16.1. So he was not simply in the game because someone got injured at the end of Spring. He has been lengthened as a starter since the beginning of ST.
I do not expect management to discuss when they plan on taking out a pitcher, but a computer print out should not dictate when that should be either. Strip was sailing along, and any manager/pitching coach should be able to determine if the pitcher still has what it takes to get outs. That is what they are there for. It used to be that the manager/pitching coach went to the catcher to ask whether the pitcher still had it. Now it seems to be black and white…pitch to the pitch limit or # of times thru the order and you are gone.
There was also a comment that the relievers were well rested. Well that is true, since only three pitched more than 8 innings all spring…Garcia (9.2), Ferguson (8.2), Floro (8.1). Maybe they were TOO well rested. Right or wrong, this team uses the first month of the season as extended ST. It has worked to a point in a weak league/division. It would not work in the more competitive AL or any of the divisions other than AL Central. IMO they would not have made the playoffs if they were in the AL East or AL West or NL Central. It is a 162 game schedule not a 136 game schedule. All early season games count the same as late season games in the standings.
I recognize that it was only the second game of the year, and I fully expect the team to rebound tonight. I fully expect Joe Kelly to have a good season, but when he is off, he should come out, and when a pitcher is on, he should stay in. My guess is that it Robbie Ray were a Dodger, he would have been gone after three innings.
I just found out that Chicken Strip was fine and nothing was wrong. Roberts decided to take him out with one gone in the sixth simply because a LH batter was up next.
I have just one thing to say to Dave Roberts about that ONE move:
Well last night Joc made an out, and hit the ball about 150mph. Seems he is LOCKED in right now, so let him play and stay in!
Toast to Bums…
Memo to Doc – Don’t platoon Joc!!
Joc is streaky so let’s see.
I am impressed with RVS.
I hate to say it, because Bums will be unsufferable… but Joc Pederson may be ready for a breakout year.
This is just the third game, so let’s see.
But I still think Mark was right about Robbie Ray.
This is the third game and I can already see a difference to the hitting approach.
Maeda is killing it.
Well Ham, Maeda has 59 pitches thru 4. When does itchy finger Doc freak out and pull him???
OK Everyone. Calm Down on JOC. Santa Ana Winds were blowing out to right field at Gale Force 7MPH lol
By the way, this Virginia Purdue game is great!
Bellinger and Joc. Joc and Bellinger. These two will hopefully have those breakout seasons together.
And Corey and Turner are hitting 167 right now.
AJ hit by pitch. Joc HBP. Taylor HBP. Time for revenge!!!!!
Am I the only one still up?
Brock Stewart. Now this man has a name worthy of greatness. Not living up to his name.
Brock for example, brings back memories of the great base stealer and Cardinal outfielder Lou Brock. The Chicago Cubs made a monumental error by trading Lou for Ernie Broglio and Bobby Shantz. Brock would go on to greatness for the Cards and the Cubs, well….
Stewart. Well, Dave Stewart comes to mind. Remember Dave Stewart?? Former Dodger who these Dodgers traded away for our Pitching Coach Rich Honeycutt. Dave Stewart would go on to have a great career. World Series MVP.
This is the revenge for the HBP’s. CODY. CODY. CODY.
You’re a good man, Ham, but don’t worry you don’t need to send me anything. I’m just glad Itchy Finger let Maeda pitch