Construction of A 40 Man Roster Part One

The Hot Stove League is always fun for us armchair GMs, allowing us to look at ways of improving a reigning World Series championship team.  Not just a WS championship team, but THE consensus choice of the best team in MLB for 2020.  But changes must be made.  Nothing can stay at the top by being stagnant.  Changes can come internally or externally.  AF is a master as to building the team, and hopefully the team’s makeup is of strong character and confidence at being the best.

Before we can look at any potential changes, we need to first review where the team currently sits.  Before a builder can frame a house, they must first have a sound foundation.  For a MLB team, that is the 40 man roster.  Currently the LAD 40 man roster sits at 31.  None 2020 LAD players are no longer on the 40 man:

• Pedro Baez – FA – (RHRP)
• Jake McGee – FA – (LHRP)
• Blake Treinen – FA – (RHRP)
• Alex Wood – FA – (Swing Pitcher)
• Justin Turner – FA – (3B)
• Kike’ Hernandez – FA – (INF/OF)
• Joc Pederson – FA – (OF)
• Jimmy Nelson (RHP) – LAD declined option with $500K buyout
• Terrance Gore (OF) – LAD outrighted

No Dodger received a Qualifying Offer of $18.9MM, and all are free agents.  That is almost a 25 % reduction of the 40 man roster, and will need to be replenished.  The current structure of the 40 man roster is as follows:

• 16 Pitchers
• 3 Catchers
• 6 Infielders
• 6 Outfielders

While Caleb Ferguson will not be playing in 2021, he will be included on the 40 man when they are set for the Winter.  He will not be allowed to be placed on the 60 day IL until ST.  There are nine open spots, and potentially more if need be. 

Fortunately, only one of the FA figured to be a front line player in 2021, and he is a 36 year old 3B. While JT is a quality 3B, he no longer plays at the AS level, and has played in 80%, 64%, 83%, and 70% of the games for the last four years.  While his defense was stellar in the WS, there is no question that JT has a plus gear in October. However, he no longer possesses the plus defense he once flashed, and JT is probably better suited for DH.  Regardless, JT is a staple for the Dodgers and for the LA community.  I think it is entirely plausible (and even likely) that JT and AF will come to a favorable agreement keeping JT in LA for the entirely of his career.  It could be two more years and then a Chase Utley type final contract.

AF is very loyal to his players, but is not emotional.  So while I might expect Joc, Kike’, and any of the four relievers to get offers from the Dodgers, I would not expect any of the Dodger FAs to get any above market offers.  That will be especially true after the losses the Dodgers incurred in a 60 game season, and what looks to be a reduced schedule for 2021, and then a potential labor issue shortening the 2022 season.  Thus, potentially that could be three consecutive seasons with significantly reduced revenues.  The Dodgers will be able to cover the losses, but with no revenue sharing in 2020, and looking to be off the table again for 2021, several organization’s ability to pay for free agents is threatened.     

FA contract offers will be down because of revenue concerns.  However, both Joc and Kike’ seem to be on short lists for many teams and likely looking to get starting roles and 2-3 year contracts, neither of which the Dodgers will offer.  Both Joc and Kike’ have been very good Dodgers, but both will be moving on.

As far as the relievers go, three of the four were very much counted on for 2020, and the 4^th had some positive moments in the playoffs.  The Dodgers relief needs are primarily in late inning high leverage situations.  The Dodgers did not use Jake McGee in that role during the playoffs, giving a strong indication that, right or wrong, they do not look at Jake as a late inning high leverage reliever.  I do not see a role for Jake as a Dodger reliever in 2021.

Blake Treinen is quite possibly a more predictable late inning high leverage option than is Kenley Jansen, but is he enough to give a multi-year contract to?  The Dodgers are already on the hook for $28.883MM for two relievers (KJ and Joe Kelly).  It seems unlikely that the Dodgers will compound that with another multi-year high contract amount for a reliever in 2021. Relief pitching seems to be the most coveted position on team wish lists, so if there are going to be any above market offers from teams, look for relievers to get those offers. Blake Treinen could fit in that role.   That will be especially true from teams where the bullpen was the biggest weakness in 2020.  Think Philadelphia, Blue Jays, Nationals, Marlins, Mariners…

The current Dodger bullpen makeup is:

• Dylan Floro (RHP) – Middle
• Victor Gonzalez (LHP) – Rookie late inning
• Brusdar Graterol – Rookie late inning
• Kenley Jansen – Former closer
• Joe Kelly – Bridge from middle to late inning
• Adam Kolarek – Middle

Others on the 40 man are Scott Alexander (LHP), Dennis Santana (RHP), Josh Sborz (RHP), Mitch White (RHP).

Alex Wood has outwardly stated that he would absolutely consider a relief role for the Dodgers in 2021.  After losing Ross Stripling, the Dodgers do not have a veteran swing man, and Alex Wood can fill that role.  Both AF and Doc are comfortable with Pedro Baez, and Baez is very comfortable with LAD.  The Dodgers are going to need middle relief, and Baez can fit that role, if he does not have his sights set on a more high leverage role.  Dodger management needs to understand that Baez is not the person to bring in with runners on base.  Have him start the 6^th or 7^th; he could be very effective.  I can see AF making an offer to both Wood and Baez, but not huge contracts.  There will be plenty of like kind relievers on the market.  Neither figure to be an upgrade, and both pitchers’ ceilings are limited, so it is also just as conceivable that neither will be offered a contract. 

While the Dodgers may have exposed the overworked Rays bullpen, Tampa Bay proved that an organization can build a quality bullpen without high priced relievers.  I do not think any of the Dodger relievers on the 40 man that did not make the playoff roster are options for any late inning options.  It could be that the bullpen will have a makeover it 2021. The one pitcher I very much look forward to seeing on the roster is 23 year old Brett de Geus.  I have been on the bandwagon for de Guess for three years now.  For me, he is the right hand version of Caleb Ferguson.

With an abundance of capable starting pitching on the active roster (Buehler, Kershaw, Price, Urias, May, and Gonsolin), one of May or Gonsolin will be designated to the bullpen.

The Dodgers have nine openings for their 40 man, and there could be players currently on the 40 man that may find themselves being designated for assignment.

Players who could potentially find themselves DFA:

• Josh Sborz
• Scott Alexander
• Dennis Santana
• Luke Raley

Nine MiLB players will get some consideration for Rule 5 draft protection:

Pitching (5)

• Andre Jackson (RHP)
• Edwin Uceta (RHP)
• Gerardo Carrillo (RHP)
• Marshall Kasowski (RHP)
• Brett de Geus (RHP)

Infielder (1)

• Omar Estevez (2B)

OF (3)

• Zach Reks (LHH)
• Cody Thomas (LHH)
• Jeren Kendall (LHH)

Not all of the nine will get protected.  Maybe only one (de Gues).

Mark previously broke down his pitcher analysis, and I will attempt to provide my pitching analysis and depth chart in my next post.