Changes in Baseball Are Coming!

It looks like the Dodgers holding the Marlins hostage to Stanton isn’t going to work. I wouldn’t be surprised if the don’t acquire either Stanton or Ohtani. I think I would settle for Yelich or Inciarte, a durable RHSP and resigning both Watson and Morrow.

Many Dodger fans have said that the team needs a #2 starting pitcher. I believe the Dodgers already have that #2 in Wood/Hill. What I have said the Dodgers do need is a legit innings eater at a reasonable cost. I do not care if that pitcher is #2 or #5. Maeda and Ryu are currently the #4/#5, but neither one qualifies as a potential innings eater. It is also 4 LHSP and 1 RHSP. That should also be more balanced.

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I have previously asked what defines a #2, and who should be targeted by the Dodgers for their #2, and would he be better than Wood/Hill? The only names I can remember seeing are Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, and Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani would be a Dodger if that is what he wants. I am sure the Dodgers put on their best dog and pony show, but Ohtani is going to decide based on HIS criteria. Right now that seems to be either the Mariners or Padres, and not the Dodgers. I am sure that can change, but there isn’t any pot that the Dodgers can sweeten to further persuade Ohtani. The Dodgers will not pay $150M and 6 years for Darvish, and yet somebody will.

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Chris Archer is the other name that continues to surface. I do not believe that Archer is a better pitcher than Wood or Hill, but I do believe he will pitch more innings. Archer has had back to back seasons with an ERA north of 4.00. His career ERA is 3.63 and career WHIP is 1.21. His GO/AO ratio is 1.02. What makes Archer in such high demand is that he dependable and has such a team friendly contract with team control up to 4 years including 2 club options ($6.25M, $7.5M, $8.25M option, $8.25M option).

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And yet when Yardbarkers suggested that the Dodgers may look at Gerrit Cole, that suggestion was not as well received as a potential Chris Archer. Cole and Archer are the same pitcher. They both throw 4 seam fastballs 95-96. Archer has a slightly tighter spin rate, but a slightly higher exit velocity. Cole did pitch 200+ innings but had a disappointing ERA of 4.26, with a previous high of 3.88. He has a career ERA of 3.50, career WHIP of 1.22, and GO/AO ratio of 1.22. He is more of a ground ball pitcher than Archer.

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Cole’s disappointed elevated ERA is undoubtedly due to 31 HR’s allowed. That is a very high number for one year, especially considering that he allowed only 36 in the previous 4 years combined. Contrast that with Archer’s 27 HR’s last year and 76 in his previous 4 years combined. Both pitchers’ best year was 2015.

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Cole 208 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 4.59 SO/W

Archer 212 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 3.82 SO/W

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Cole is 2 years younger. He has two more arbitration years. 2018 is estimated to be $7.5M. He has a higher ceiling than Archer. Cole is from Orange County and went to school at UCLA, after turning down the Yankees who drafted him in the 1st round 3 years earlier. Both Archer and Cole have impeccable character. It would be fun to watch Cole pitch against his Brother-in-law (Brandon Crawford). There really is not much difference between the two, so if Archer qualifies as a #2, so does Cole. If Cole is not a #2, then neither is Archer. The prospect cost to acquire either pitcher will be untouchable.

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So if not Darvish/Ohtani/Archer/Cole, who can the Dodgers get to be a #2? That pitcher is a year away…Walker Buehler. Julio Urias will probably be a #3 in 2019 making Wood/Hill the new #4/#5. Hill could be replaced by Maeda, Ryu will be gone.

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What top of the rotation pitcher who is both available and a better pitcher than either Wood or Hill that the Dodgers can and will go after?

Ohtani is signing with Anaheim.

As long as Ohtani did not go the Giants, Padres or D-Bags, I don’t case, He’s not a winner in my opinion anyway.

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Cross that off the list!

Not having the DH always seemed to make it an uphill battle for NL teams.

Iannetta 2 yr for $8.5 million to go back to Colorado.

Trading Puig, unless he brings back a kings ransom, would be a mistake. There’s a lot to like about Joc Pederson, and just as much to dislike. Sure, Joc has 40 Hr potential, but so does Puig. After his surge in power this past year to 28, I see Puig as having the potential to hit 30-40 bombs. If Puig builds on his 2017 accomplishments as he enters his prime years, I have little doubt that he has a lot more to show us. And to top it off, he’s the best defensive right fielder in the game.

If the Dodgers get Stanton or even another right handed hitting power bat (e.g., Ozuna), then there lineup (with Puig in it) will be extremely formidable. There would be no place to pitch around anyone. In fact, as much as I would like to have Stanton, it could easily turn out that Ozuna is preferable.

And based on the stuff I’ve been reading lately, Mark may well be right about Ohtani.

If the Dodgers trade for Stanton, sign Chacin and re-sign Morrow, I would have a Merry Christmas.

Hey, no one mentioned that Scott Barlow was now a KC Royal and that he has a shot at their rotation.

SF & Cards out on Stanton.

Dodgers are Stanton’s top choice. But they not only have luxury tax issue but could move into debt-service issue. These issues plus knowledge of being top choice would affect any offer.

Per Heyman

Ohtani picked the Angels, because he thought he had a good bond with the Angels.

It must be because the Angel’s bench coach, speaks Japanese.

I can’t think about any other type of bond the Angels could give Ohtani.

Chris Camello tweeted that the Dodgers are willing to move any prospect not named Buehler. The hang up is getting Miami to accept back salary like Kazmir or McCarthy. The Cardinals were willing to take on $300 million worth of salary. You have to think this gets done at the Winter meetings. I wouldn’t necessarily give them 12 hours to decide but the Dodgers can put together different offers where Kazmir, McCarthy, Gonzalez, and Arruburena are moved. If I were the Marlins I would take McCarthy. They only have to pay him $10 million next year and he can pitch. He also has a $5 million club option for 2019 due to his injuries with the Dodgers. As much as I didn’t like the McCarthy deal he’s worth $15 million over the next two years for a cost cutting team like Miami.

More reports of Yankees getting close to deal.

This is one time I wish I was wrong. I was actually looking forward to Stanton in the Dodgers lineup. I have not seen the list of prospects but it sounds like the Yankees sent Starling Castro and “good” not top prospects to Miami for Stanton.

Let’s not criticize until we see it all play out. I wanted Stanton, but always had in my mind the fear that taking on a player for 10 years, who has an injury history, was in itself a huge risk in spite of the potential upside. Given luxury tax ramifications the overall cost was potentially gong to be about a half Billion dollars, not $295 Million.

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For now the Dodgers still have all of their prospects, and the flexibility to add on significant pieces. Maybe they’re considering a deal for Ozuna or someone like him, and myriad other moves that remain possible given that they’re not committing a large part of their payroll to just one player.

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Maybe when it’s all over I’ll be profoundly disappointed, and maybe not. I still have a lot of faith in FAZ, and know that if they have a plan A, they also have plans stretching a lot deeper into the alphabet. For now I am holding my judgment until I see this thing play out.