Change is in the Air

When you get to the World Series, you have a good team and no matter what, you are in position to win it.  Ask the 1988 Dodgers.  It seems absurd to me to blame the guy who assembled the team that got to the World Series for the loss.  In 2017, they were the best team.  In 2018, the Red Sox were, but does the best team always win?  I think Clayton Kershaw summed it up: “We just have to play better.” Friedman got them there – it ‘s easy to say they need better players… 2% better, 8% better? What they need is for the players to play better! If you are good enough to get there, you are good enough to win. If you build a team capable of getting there, they are capable of winning.

Maybe it’s time to look at gameplanning and strategy.  Rick Honeycutt has always had great pitching staffs, but it seems like those staffs get exposed in the playoffs, like the Ace of the staff has been exposed at times in the past six post-seasons.  The Dodgers had a 3.38 ERA during the 2018 season while the Red Sox had a 3.75 ERA.  However, during the World Series, the Red Sox improved by allowing 1.20 runs a game less (2.55) ERA, while the Dodgers went the other direction: their team ERA rose 1.47 runs a game (4.85).  You might say the Dodger hitters failed to hit, but it’s pretty clear to me that a team that averages 4.85 runs a game is going to beat a team that averages 2.55 runs a game, and in the playoffs we have repeatedly seen that good pitching stops good hitting.

In 2017, the Astros and Dodgers had virtually the same ERA in the World Series (4.64 and 4.45), but the Dodgers Regular Season ERA was 3.38 (same as 2018) while the Astros team ERA for 2017 was 4.12.  Again, the Dodgers ERA in the Series increased by more than a run per game. The fact that the Series went 7 games is a testament to the fact that the pitching was pretty much a “push.”  This is a troubling pattern.  In 2016, the Dodgers regular season ERA was 3.70 but increased to 4.59 in the playoffs.  In 2015, team ERA was 3.44 and increased to 4.50 in the post-season. It was true in 2014 as well. The Dodgers 3.40 ERA in the regular season balloned to 4.76 in the post-season. 2013 was the anomaly.  In the regular season, the team ERA was 3.25 while it dropped to 3.19 in the playoffs.

Of course, you can also point to the offense.  The Dodgers hit .250 as a team in the regular season, only to drop to .180 in the World Series. The same thing happened in 2017, when they hit .249 in the regular season only to drop to .205 in the World Series. Is it the hitting, or the pitching?  I think it’s both, but with Turner Ward gone, it appears that the Dodgers may deviate from their previous hitting approach.  How much remains to be seen. Why Turner left may never be known, but I guarantee it was not “to be closer to his family.”  The Dodgers have been very quiet about possible replacements and wouldn’t hazzard a guess.

Remember, the Dodgers’ front office includes Joshn Byrnes and a ton of analysts, but it also includes the following baseball people:

• David Finley
• Ismael Cruz
• Galen Carr
• Billy Gasparino
• Brandom Gomes
• Gerry Hunsicker
• Pat Corrales
• Raul Ibanez
• Jose Vizcaino
• Ralph Avila

Those guys (many are former players) all have a “voice” as to the Direction the Dodgers take, but if Friedman ignored their input, they wouldn’t be there. I am sure that a lot of options are being discussed.  I can argue both sides of the Giancarlo Stanton acquisition.  There are lots of reasosn “For” and lots of reasons “Against” (about $270 million of them). Personally, I think most of the improvement can come internally, but I am not against acquiring another RH POWER BAT!

Some of you wonder why I am so quick to move Puig?  It’s because even though he hit’s RH, he is really a LH Hitter.  He hits RH pitching but whiffs on LH pitching.  Reverse Splits.  I also believe Alex Verdugo will shine as the Dodgers’ Right Fielder and leadoff hitter.  I have no idea if the Dodgers think that, but I suspect they do because they have been loathe to include him in any deal up until now.

Everyone (myself included) wants to dump Kemp’s salary, but it ain’t happening… unless he Dodgers take back something significant, like Stanton and his deal.  But, that’s assuming the Yankees want Harper AND are willling to pay the piper for him.  I’d say the odds of Stanton being a Dodgers are slim and none, but I think AC’s trade proposal is just about right. It’s just that there are too many moving parts for it to probably happen.

The Dodgers will say they are in on certain Free Agents, but they aren’t.  Not really… they just want to drive up the price.  Remember that three years ago, many Dodger fans were holding up the Giants (well, they did win 3 World Series)  and the Diamondbacks as successful organizational models because of their free agent signings, but look at them now.  Aging players, bad deals, big contracts to aging pitchers and they are in rebuild mode,   The Dodgers rebuilt while winning and yes, I would love to see a big bopper coming to LA, but in reality, what I hope for is incremental improvement from the core.

Maybe there will be a trade or two… Friedman is plotting… and who knows what will happen?  A free agent signing?  Maybe! We never know, but we try and guess anyway. One thing is certain:  Gameplanning and strategy need to be paramount.  Hitting strategy needs to change and so does the pitching strategy.  How many first-pitch home runs should you be willing to give up?  “Effectively wild” can sometimes be better than “pounding the strike zone.” Words to ponder, Rick Honeycutt!

However, the goal is still the same: Get Back to the World Series… but win this one!