Buehler & Kimbrel – Same Worry, Different Reasons

By many pitchers’ standards, Walker Buehler’s numbers are pretty good, but they are certainly not up to his normal standards. As fans, it is easy to say that his fastball is declining, but that is a rather simplistic overview. Of course, over time a pitcher’s fastball will decline or if it doesn’t he will ultimately need Tommy John Surgery. It was never sustainable for Walker Buehler to pitch at 98 to 100 MPH. Walker is a strong man, but his frame is slight. Much like Pedro Martinez, who dropped some velocity in his prime, it is not surprising that Walker has dropped a few MPH on his 4-seamer.

Average Fastball Velocity over the years:

• 2017 – 98.2 MPH
• 2018 – 95.7 MPH
• 2019 – 95.9 MPH
• 2020 – 96.1 MPH
• 2021 – 94.4 MPH
• 2022 – 93.5 MPH

Walker threw much harder in his rookie year than any other year. In his second year, his velocity dropped by about 2.5 MPH. That happens a lot with young pitchers and Walker has said that he is trying to become more of a pitcher, instead of just a “thrower.” For some reason, we know that his spin rate is also down – maybe that has to do with not having “sticky fingers?” I am not sure about that one.

Here are some other interesting things to consider.

Average Exit Velocity

2017 – 90.2 MPH
2018 – 87.9 MPH
2019 – 89.3 MPH
2020 – 90.0 MPH
2021 – 88.2 MPH
2022 – 87.0 MPH

So, his exit velocity is the lowest of his career. Hitters are not sending the pitches out as fast, probably because they are not coming in as fast?

Breaking Ball Velocity

2017 – 85.5 MPH
2018 – 83.9 MPH
2019 – 84.0 MPH
2020 – 83.7 MPH
2021 – 82.5 MPH
2022 – 80.7 MPH

So his breaking balls are also down about 5 MPH from his rookie year, which seems logical because you do want “separation” from your breaking pitches and fastball. So, some fans want to believe that he has arm problems. Others say it is a mechanical issue, while others say it is a conscious effort to change the way he pitches. I say it is more than just “one thing.” Problems and solutions to those problems seldom present themselves in nicely wrapped packages. Issues such as this can be from multiple causes.

It does not appear that he is injured as he has logged extended innings and he can ht 97 MPH. Walker says that it is a “mechanical issue” and I do believe that is a part of his problem, but those who say he is not consciously trying to change the way he pitches ignore the fact that in 2020, Walker threw 53% fastballs. In 2021, that percentage dropped to 44%, and (so far) in 2022, his fastball percentage has dropped to 32%. That is not a mechanical issue – that is a conscious shift for some reason we are not privy to!

I do not believe there is one thing that is responsible for Buehler’s (under) performance. It’s more than a “mechanical problem” – although I do not doubt that is part of the problem. If you take Andrew Friedman, Dave Roberts, or Walker Buehler at their word, you are failing to see the real picture. Of course, they are not going to tell us what is happening. We can only look at the results and jump to conclusions, but I try and look past the obvious and I do not take Walker at his word that it is only a “Mechanical Issue.” We will know more as time passes. To me, it sounds like Walker needs some Driveline TIme with Rob Hill and Company. Stay tuned! At this juncture, I feel that Walker will break out at any time.

Craig Kimbrel

Craig has a history of pitching at a very high level and then inexplicably, pitching like crap. In April he had a 1.80 ERA versus a 6.30 ERA in May. In June and July of last year, he had 0.00 ERA, but in August it was 7.15. In 2020, he had a 0.00 ERA in September after having a 27.00 ERA in July and a 6.75 ERA in August. In 2019, he had a 12.27 ERA before the All-Star Break and a 5.29 ERA after the All-Star Break. I could go on and on, but you get the picture. I was never a fan of Craig, but here we are and I am hoping he pitches as he did in April. It’s just that you cannot expect that. History is not on your side. I wanted Kenley Jansen back. Yes, he was not perfect… he still isn’t.

However, Kenley has a 0.87 WHIP this year while Kimbrel is sitting at 1.40. You can take Craig, but I’ll take Kenley. That said, the Dodgers’ have Kimbrel as their closer, not Jansen, but they had better be looking for a replacement. History says it may be likely. So, you might say, “that’s negative, be positive!” “OK, I am positive that the Dodgers might need a replacement for Kimbrel.”

What we all need to remember is that “problems are opportunities in drag.” When you get lemons, sometimes you just make lemonade. Our Ace may arise from this and be even better and out of the ashes of Craig Kimbrel, may rise a new closer. This is the beauty of baseball. I love this game!

• Andrew Heaney and Clayton Kershaw both experienced positive results after throwing sessions. Both are expected back in the next two to three weeks.
• My son and I will be at the same tonight on Julio Urias Bobblehead Night. We are arriving early to take the special tour. He has never experienced that.
• Saturday night we will be in Rancho Cucamonga for the Quakes Game.