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Arsonist

Some people can’t stand prosperity. When August started, the Dodgers were 59-45 and two games up in the NL West. Now they’re 76-48 and 11.5 games up in the NL West. In yesterday’s Power Rankings from The Athletic, the Dodgers were ranked #2 behind the Braves in all of MLB…

By Mark Timmons4 min readJump to 117 comments

Some people can’t stand prosperity. When August started, the Dodgers were 59-45 and two games up in the NL West. Now they’re 76-48 and 11.5 games up in the NL West. In yesterday’s Power Rankings from The Athletic, the Dodgers were ranked #2 behind the Braves in all of MLB. However, that changed slightly, thanks to Caleb Ferguson, who is certainly no fireman… more like an arsonist! Bobby Miller was saddled with his 3rd loss as Caleb got his 4th Blown Save! Caleb is evidently trying to pitch himself off the playoff roster. You can question the move all you want – maybe Doc should have left Bobby in – but he’s a rookie who has thrown 97 pitches, and if he had left him in and he got scored upon, the same persons who would criticize taking him out would have questioned letting him in.

Bruce Bochy is regarded as a genius because the moves he made in three World Series worked (for the most part), but the reality of the situation is that if a manager makes a move that works, fans seem to think that makes him a genius. In reality, when players deliver, the manager looks like a genius… because the players made him look that way. Caleb Ferguson has a way of letting the team down on the biggest stages. Next man up!

Bryan Hudson and his 8.10 ERA are also underwhelming. Hudson and Ferguson are but two of the lefthanders in the bullpen who seem more like arsonists than firemen. Caleb can pitch when there is a lead and no pressure but seems to crumble under pressure more often than not. Victor Gonzalez has not exactly inspired confidence, either. Alex Vesia has been up and down as well and does not exactly inspire trust. Ryan Yarbrough is a LH long man, but without Ferguson and Hudson, Vesia is not a reliable choice in the bullpen. There are 38 games to sort this out, and other than Yarbrough, which lefty has your confidence? There are none on the horizon, so it would appear that at least two of the following LH pitchers will have to be on the playoff roster:

  • Bryan Hudson
  • Caleb Ferguson
  • Alex Vesia
  • Victor Gonzalez

That’s kind of like asking how you would like to die: Would you rather be burned at the stake or hung? Not a good choice! There is still time for some of these left-handers to step up, but it is getting late. In my opinion, the Dodgers are in good shape with the righthanded pitchers.

  • Ryan Brasier has a 1.11 ERA
  • Joe Kelly (who may not be back)has a 0.00 ERA
  • The Bazooka has a 1.53 ERA
  • Ryan Pepiot has a 1.80 ERA
  • Shelby Miller has a 2.40 ERA
  • Gus Varland has a 2.45 ERA
  • Evan Phillips has a 2.49 ERA

The Dodgers may be forced to go with Caleb Ferguson in the playoffs, but he makes me very nervous. While he has a decent 2.87 ERA, he has given up more hits than innings pitched and sports a 1.45 WHIP which is horrible for any pitcher, let alone a reliever! A gentleman who used to post here as “TheOldtimer” (R.I.P.) would say, “Under pressure, his sphincter gets tight!” Alex Vesia will likely make it, so as of today, we can see this playoff roster:

  1. Urias
  2. Kershaw
  3. Lynn
  4. B. Miller
  5. Brasier
  6. Graterol
  7. Pepiot
  8. S. Miller
  9. Varland
  10. Vesia
  11. Ferguson
  12. Yarbrough
  13. Phillips

That means that Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Yency Almonte, Blake Treinen, Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Cyr, Daniel Hudson, and Michael Grove are on the outside looking in. Some are injured and have no shot. Kelly could be out… who knows? Injuries could change the complexion of everything. It’s not time to panic, but it’s about time to figure this out.

Bobby Miller deserved a better fate last night. By the way, Bobby Miller is having a better rookie season than Clayton Kershaw did. This kid is special. But it’s up to Clayton to right the ship today! Ryan Pepiot will likely start on Thursday, with Bryan Hudson being demoted (again). I know that Dave Roberts said that Walker Buehler would only be used as a starter, but if can pitch, maybe he is an option out of the pen. Walker is very effective against LH hitters!

P.S. It sucks that the Dodgers could not blast Thor into oblivion. Thor has been a little better with Cleveland, but not close to good. He was flat-out “lucky” last night, as he should have been pounded! Mookie and Will did their share, but the rest of the team failed. Busch looked disadvantaged in his at-bats last night. I am sure he is pressing… but this game is results driven.

Dodger Farmers

  • Miguel Vargas has rebounded and, after a 2-5 last night, has his BA up to .295. Whether he gets the call in September is the question.
  • Gavin Stone pitched three innings in relief of Alec Gamboa (the opener). Gamboa is a 26-year-old LH who has had a nice season: – 9-1 with a 2.29 ERA. His walk rate is a little high with OKC, but on the year, his WHIP is 1.00. We could see Gamboa and Stone in September. Ken Giles and Shelby Miller also pitched last night for OKC.
  • Diego Cartaya (.191 BA) was 1-5 with his 18th HR – a two-run shot.
  • Josue De Paula (still 18) was 4-5 last night (.288 BA) for RC.

Discussion (117)

Disagree, not disagreeable

Be civil — moderation is real. Links may need a moment of review.

  1. John DollAugust 24, 2023

    Like to get Mark or Bear’s opinion or anyone else. Doesn’t our lineup seem much shorter than in the past couple of years? Especially without Martinez. After our four top players in the lineup the consistency doesn’t seem to be there. Losing the Turner’s Bellinger before he hurt his shoulder, the lineup seem lethal from 1 to at least 8. I don’t know the answer but we could use better and more consistency from Martinez down. It’s real noticeable when they give Smith a breather. Do you guys feel it’s more noticeable this season? I interested in your thoughts.

  2. OldBear48August 24, 2023

    Learned something on MLB’s Phillies broadcast today. Verducci is Joan Hodges, Gil’s wife, nephew.

  3. OldBear48August 24, 2023

    Ohtani pulled from his start after 26 pitches. Arm fatigue. If that issue persists, his only value to any team will be as a hitter.

  4. ZekeAugust 24, 2023

    Game is called for tonight rescheduled for tomorrow 9 AM and then tomorrow’s regular scheduled game.

  5. CassidyAugust 24, 2023

    Why do we have our RH lineup in against a RHP?

  6. OldBear48August 23, 2023

    What?? Tarp on the field.??? Means if there is a long delay, Kersh is not coming back out for this one.

  7. porpoiseboyAugust 23, 2023

    Not looking good if the weather radar is correct

  8. CassidyAugust 23, 2023

    A lot of ugly OPS numbers in this Cleveland lineup. Kersh is back livin at 90 mph on his fastball. Hopefully he can build that back up by October.

  9. nonicnamebumfanAugust 23, 2023

    Is it just me, or does Outman get a bad strike call almost every at bat ?

    Usually a back door breaking ball well off the plate.

  10. CassidyAugust 23, 2023

    Well I guess that’s why Kiki is starting over Busch tonight! Does Robert’s get any love when a move works out or just grief when it doesn’t?

  11. philjonesAugust 23, 2023

    Doc will have to come up with some lefty he can trust in higher leverage situations, or not. If he can’t trust any of them, the brain trust needs to find his best RHRP who has the best splits against LHB, at least to pitch out of jams. It’s unconventional but in those situations you go with your best option., even against the book.

    Multi inning closers of yesteryear came in and were effective against any hitters, left or right.

  12. CassidyAugust 23, 2023

    LADT complains when Robert’s takes a starter out and similarly complains when he leaves one in.

  13. Richard WeyukerAugust 23, 2023

    I just checked Baseball Reference.com. Caleb Ferguson has the highest leverage index in the entire bullpen – higher than Phillips or Graterol.

    League average for inherited runners scoring is 32%. For Ferguson it’s 35%. Phillips 11%, Graterol 28%, Almonte 18% (in low leverage work), Brasier 0%, Vesia 33%. There’s a reason that Phillips gets the toughest assignments.

    Ferguson’s numbers have taken a significant dive in the 2nd half. His WHIP before the All Star Break was 1.206 – since then it’s 1.977. OPS against was .611 before the break, .856 after. Your eyes do not deceive you – he’s getting beat up lately. August has been the worst – his OPS against is .987 in August – it’s like it’s Mookie or Freddie up there when he’s pitching.

    But what choice does Roberts have when he needs a lefty? It’s not like bringing in Vesia or Gonzalez is a better option right now.

  14. Dodger DaveAugust 23, 2023

    I was shocked. I say shocked when Miller came out of the dugout for the 7th. Then when Roberts pulled him with 2 on. That is exactly how old school managers did it for decades.

    Unfortunately, the bullpen did not do the job.

    Noting the Dodgers are about 4 and a half back of the Braves I would be playing every game to win. Roberts should keep his pitchers on a tight leash. Including the bullpen.

  15. Andrew Vincent ForteAugust 23, 2023

    DODGERS MINOR LEAGUE NEWS

    Dodgers minors: Blake Treinen begins rehab assignment,

    Dodgers pitcher Blake Treinen pitched in his first game of the season on Tuesday, starting a minor league rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League.

    Treinen struck out his first two batters faced and induced a flyout in a perfect first inning against the Cubs at Camelback Rancho. It was the first game for Treinen since undergoing right shoulder surgery in November to repair his labrum and rotator cuff.

  16. Andrew Vincent ForteAugust 23, 2023

    Tuesday scores

    Albuquerque 9, Oklahoma City 6

    Tulsa 7, NW Arkansas 4

    Great Lakes 5, Fort Wayne 2

    Rancho Cucamonga 10, Lake Elsinore 1

    Wednesday schedule

    4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Adolfo Ramirez) vs. Fort Wayne (Henry Baez)

    5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Mike Montgomery) vs. Albuquerque (TBA)

    5:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Kendall Williams) at NW Arkansas (Tyson Guerrero)

    6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Jared Karros) vs. Lake Elsinore (Jose Reyes)

  17. Andrew Vincent ForteAugust 23, 2023

    7:10 PM ET

    Dodgers (76-48)

    Guardians (60-66)

    SP Clayton Kershaw L

    11-4 2.48 ERA

    SP Xzavion Curry R

    3-1 3.24 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup

    RF Mookie Betts R

    1B F. Freeman L

    C Will Smith R

    DH Max Muncy L

    LF Chris Taylor R

    3B E. Hernandez R

    CF James Outman L

    2B Amed Rosario R

    SS Miguel Rojas R

    81° Wind 10 mph Out

  18. MarcusAugust 23, 2023

    Caleb seems to perform better when he gets to start his own inning. When he comes in with men on base he tends to sh*t the bed. Not cut out to be a leverage guy it seems. Thought Doc should have pulled Miller after the 6th.

  19. OldBear48August 23, 2023

    Syndergaard knows the Dodgers are a great fastball hitting team. So, after giving up three runs in the first three innings, he changed his strategy and began using his off-speed stuff more. Result, less hard-hit balls, more soft contact, and the hitters did not adjust. Muncy hit three balls very hard, not one of them fell for a hit. I felt Miller was done after six. He should not have been sent out for the seventh inning. I trust Ferguson more when he starts an inning than when he comes in with men on. I also think the Dodger catchers, usually Smith, when Miller is pitching, should immediately head out to the mound after he gives up a hard-hit ball or a walk, and get his head back in the game. He seems to lose concentration. The kid has great stuff. He needs to have a tougher mentality set. Shelby Miller could be back soon. Treinen might even make it back. But if they do not, I trust Vesia more than I do Ferguson. I think the reason Gonzalez has not been very efficient or effective is simply because he is not pitching much. 38 games left. D-Backs getting hot again. From Cleveland, aka, the mistake by the lake to Beantown next. They need to win four of the next five at least.

  20. CassidyAugust 23, 2023

    Gonzalez was huge for us in 20 and pitched well in some big moments. I still have some hope for him to pull it together this year.

  21. philjonesAugust 23, 2023

    * Some losses sting more than others and yesterday’s loss left a bad taste in my mouth solely because we let Syndergaard have a quality start. I thought we’d knock his ass off the mound and run wild. We kinda did. For 3 innings.

    * Our top 4 were 5 for 15 but 5 – 9 forgot how to hit with 2 days off. 1 for 21 was a surprise I didn’t expect.

    * Like Orel, I thought something special was in store for Bobby Miller. His stuff early, was awesome. Then in the 4th he went from Cy Young to Sayonara. He hasn’t figured out yet how to minimize the causalities and stay away from a big crocked number. He got it back the next 2 innings and went 3 up, 3 down, which was nice to see. I love his stuff and his make up and he’ll figure it out. His line became worse as Ferguson was horseshit.

    * Just one of those days and we have had few.

    But I thought we would feast off Noah and I’m disappointed that we missed an opportunity.

    Let’s hope CK brings it today.

  22. sbuffaloAugust 23, 2023

    Every time Caleb Ferguson comes in, I get nervous. His lack of consistency is problematic.

    I’m sure Michael Busch feels like he’s auditioning for next year. What they need to do in 2024 is give him the opportunity to start and allow him to get comfortable. Maybe then he performs at a high level and earns a starting position. Building confidence is the key and I think he can play, given fair opportunity like the Dodgers accorded Miguel Vargas.

    With JD Martinez out the Dodgers need another hitter in the line-up, that’s obvious. Not just a mix and match hitter, but somebody who is in the line-up everyday. Not sure who that would be so I guess it’s a mix and match line-up until Martinez returns.

    Love Bobby Miller’s stuff. The more experience, the better he will get. Amazed how many really good young pitchers the Dodgers have in the system.

    Since the team went to Guardians as their name, shouldn’t Groot be the mascot? After scoring early, the Dodgers just couldn’t get untracked last night and Thor was better, but not great.

    No question Diego Cartaya has had a season to forget, but with a couple of adjustments he should get back on track. I still believe he has big upside.

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