Are We Re-Experiencing Collusion by MLB?
Is there in fact collusion going on in MLB? With all of this backlash on the various trades, it is becoming more clear to me that if the MLBPA did not have Tony Clark as the union president, the union would clean the clock of MLB and it’s own lightweight, Rob Manfred. Boston is not hurting in revenue or operating income, and can certainly afford the salaries and resultant luxury
Is there in fact collusion going on in MLB? With all of this backlash on the various trades, it is becoming more clear to me that if the MLBPA did not have Tony Clark as the union president, the union would clean the clock of MLB and it’s own lightweight, Rob Manfred. Boston is not hurting in revenue or operating income, and can certainly afford the salaries and resultant luxury tax if they had retained both Betts and Price. But their owner, John Henry, stated that the goal was to get under the CBT threshold and reset the luxury tax clock. Why? That was also the stated goal for NYY and LAD a couple years back. Why? And the Chicago Cubs are fighting the same threshold as is Boston this year, and they want to make changes that are apparently being hampered due to salary restrictions. Why? Is there an unwritten rule amongst the owners after the 2016 CBA that teams needed to respect the threshold as a de facto salary cap? While MLB cannot mandate (a word avoided by all of the big spending teams) that they reset the tax at least once every three years, they certainly seem to get teams to adhere to it. Why? Are we seeing a version of collusion part deaux? Just exactly where is Peter Ueberroth?
NYY, LAD, Boston, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia, SF, and NYM are not small market teams and none should be trying to back away from the luxury tax if their team is helped. No team (business) wants to pay unnecessarily a tax, but if it is an investment in winning a WS, then these teams should not shy away from exceeding the CBT threshold, even for three consecutive years. The tax should not be an impediment to investing in one’s team. If the team can afford it, go for it.
That is why I believe that MLB is an accessory to this debacle (as Mark calls it). John Henry would not be trying to trade Mookie Betts if there was not some outside pressure to get under the threshold. If he could not afford it, he would never have agreed to the excessive contracts he has already inked for David Price, JDM, Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and Nathan Eovaldi. Mookie has never said that he wanted out of Boston, just that he wanted to test free agency. Henry should have kept Mookie and then told his agent to come back with the best offer and we will see what we can do. If he wanted to sign Mookie the ballplayer, he should never let the tax dissuade him, because he can afford it, UNLESS someone else is saying to do otherwise.
Since 2011, Boston’s operating income has been:
2011 – $25.4MM
2012 – $23.9MM
2013 – $25.3MM
2014 – $49.2MM
2015 – $43.2MM
2016 – $78.6MM
2017 – $86.0MM
2018 – $84.0MM
That is an eight year average of more than $50MM annually. Boston was over the threshold in 2018 and still made $84.0MM in operating income. We do not know what the 2019 operating income was, but by winning the 2018 WS, I would imagine the bottom line did not go down, even if the payroll went up (slightly).
The new CBT threshold began in 2016 and lo and behold, the operating income increased nearly 82% for Boston. Both NYY and LAD were over the threshold in 2016 and 2017, and they felt it necessary to be under the threshold in 2018, and both teams did. I do believe that the Dodgers had an extra incentive because of the debt service concerns and not knowing what MLB would do if they did not get under the threshold. But NYY had no such concerns and that was a goal of theirs as well. Now Boston’s owner says that the goal is to get under the CBT threshold to not exceed the threshold for the third consecutive year.
Doesn’t it seem odd that each of the three supposedly wealthiest teams work feverishly to get below the threshold so as not to exceed it three consecutive years, but then come back and say they will be able to go over the threshold again after they reset the penalty? Doesn’t it also seem odd that each team stated it was a goal, but they were under no MANDATE to do so? I am generally not a conspiracy theorist, but it sure seems like someone from MLB is telling them to get below, without saying it out loud. There is no way the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers are worried about a tax if they believe they can win with players that exceed the threshold.
Tony Clark needs to give way to a more expert union negotiator because the MLBPA should be in a position to increase the CBT threshold exponentially, and install a salary floor, or teams need to lose their revenue sharing. I am not a fan of the DH, but it is not going away, so the MLBPA should be able to insist that the NL institute the DH for the NL beginning in 2022. Even with the larger FA contracts being let this year, there were only four that exceeded $100MM, and not one small market team was able to grab any of them. This year followed a couple of weak years. Even last year’s big money boys, Harper and Machado, settled for less than what was expected. Mike Moustakas had to take back to back single year contracts. Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel did not sign until June. Scott Boras’ clients are happy, but how many others? The players are in a good position to extract some favorable negotiations if they handle it correctly.
Sure the larger market teams will be in a better position to compete annually because of their revenues, but it is time to tell the Pirates ownership to spend or sell, and to see what the Marlins can now do under new ownership. The A’s and Rays are showing that they can contend without being big market high revenue teams. The A’s could very well beat the Astros for the AL West crown, and while NYY is the heavy favorite to win the NL East, Tampa could very easily move ahead of Boston, especially without Mookie. Toronto, Cincinnati, and Chicago White Sox are showing signs that they are ready to compete beginning in 2020. KC won a WS in 2015.
If the tax is not onerous for the owners of the larger revenue teams, then why the need to get under the threshold? This is where I believe that there is an unwritten rule telling teams that they need to adhere to the luxury tax (as close as possible) and for sure to get under it at least once every three years. MLBPA can stifle this collusion by increasing the threshold so it is not a de facto salary cap, and minimizing the penalty. If I were negotiating for the MLBPA, and I was advised that the owners want to stabilize the smaller revenue teams, I would counsel the union to advise the owners that they should do it in a way that does not impede player salaries.
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Discussion (150)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I still like the deal. For all we know Downs or Wong could have been in the original deal and one of them had to be added to finish it off. Dodgers get who some are saying is the second best player in the MLB, a #3 SP for $16 million a year.
Downs and Wong have a lot of potential, but they are prospects. Verdugo hurts a little, but this trade is still a steal but not the felony type that was described originally. All-in-all I love it and can’t wait to see Price and Betts in Dodger Blue next weekend.
Even with Stripling and Maeda gone, here’s the Rotation Candidates:
Kershaw
Buehler
Price
Urias
May
Gonsolin
Wood
Nelson
Gray
I am both happy and pi**** about this deal. I am obviously ecstatic for getting Betts and Price. But there is nothing wrong with Graterol’s medicals and the commissioner should have told Boston they needed to live with the trade. The Dodgers had to throw in $10MM and another prospect (lower level) to keep Graterol. In effect they traded Downs, Wong, lottery pick and $10MM for Graterol and the 67th pick in June’s draft. Probably not out of line, but not as good as the original deal. If this was the original deal, I would have been okay. No pitching prospect, and dealing from two prospect strengths.
Boston cheated to a WS in 2018 and now reneged on a trade and got away with it.
For Boston’s punishment for cheating and reneging, the commissioner should tell them they cannot sign Mookie as a FA. $5MM is chump change to these owners, and losing draft picks as low as they are drafting means very little. If they are told they cannot sign FA, or limiting their FA budget, that would hurt.
AC always says that you can’t keep all your depth and Wong and Downs were depth. The Red Sox may have gotten three pretty good players, but if Price is Right, he could flourish in the NL with a light workload. Price is the crapshoot.
Graterol was the #32 ranked MLB prospect btyBaseball Prospectus. Dustin May (#8) is the only Dodger pitcher ranked higher. He could make the Opening Day roster… or not, but his stuff is filthy.
I think Freidman wasn’t too happy having to rework this deal, but to me he has proven once again that he is ALL IN this year, and he’s going for it. He was dealing from surplus players, which is one of the reasons he made that trade last year with the Reds, to get trading chips. Just used one. As some of you mentioned, if this guy from the Twins works out, that would be a plus plus. You can never have enough pitching.
The twins had agreed Graterol for maeda. But we say no let’s give you 10 million for a number 67 pick? Is that right? What am I missing here?
If Boston somehow re-signs Betts after this season, I will be quite upset. Otherwise, I’m fine with the deal, except for the Angels part, where we give up Pederson and Stripling for a utility infielder. It is irritating that we had to end up with Graterol, whom we didn’t want in the first place, but it’s better than the deal falling apart. And as I suggested yesterday, we should now just never deal with Boston again. Because we have traded Maeda and probably Stripling, we have lost three of our rotation starters from the beginning of last season, plus someone who could perhaps have filled in as #5. We did get Price, let us hope that he is able to win 12-15 games. And then we have to sign Betts long-term to make all of this really worthwhile.
I love this trade IF Graterol’s arm is, indeed, healthy (and we extend Mookie).
So, it looks like the Dodgers are flexing their financial Muscles again by sending $10 Million and Maeda to the Twins for Graterol.
Twins get Maeda and $10mil. We get Gatterol, a lower level prospect, and the rights to the 67th pick in the June draft.
Now we’ll see what the Angel deal is all about
Not a great deal for the Dodgers. It looks like we overpaid, but I trust AF that this is better than the alternative.
I’d rather have Graterol than Downs. He was blocked! We have much more need for a top reliever! I think it’s even a better deal for us
IDK what to make of this breaking news, as I did not think Dodgers would have to part with someone like Downs to get this deal done. It makes it a bit of an overpay for a 1 year rental but maybe I am missing something. In the case of Wong being also included, well Dodgers have a plethora of good catching prospects so there is that. But if Dodgers are thus getting Graterol from Twins in this case, i am OK since Boras Graterol’s agent seems to think there is nothing too medically wrong with him
Allegedly, it’s Bettes and Price and half of Price’s salary for Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.
Still don’t know for sure about the Twins or Angels deals…
It’s not as sweet as the first deal, but other than Verdugo, whom I really like, the other two players are potentially utilitymen.
It does look like Price is in the deal. And Connor Wong. Hate to see him go. I think Wong has a lot of potential.
Not sure how I feel about this.
Not the same deal.
No Price. Jeter goes to Boston.
Can’t see Strip being in the Angels trade.
What a mess. I don’t like this nearly as much as the original. Boston just got rewarded for being raging asshats.
Sorry yall I think this is a fabulous trade we got betts price and grateral, any thoughts
What I just read does not include Price.
1) Did we now send less cash to Boston?
2) we basically flipped the Twins relieve for Jeter Downs
oh, and 3) F boston
Jeter Downs heading to Boston
Deals coming together.
Dodgers are in agreement with Twins, pending medical review – Maeda and cash would go to MIN for Graterol and another prospect. Other elements perhaps.
Meanwhile, per Passan:
LAD and RedSox in agreement on Betts and Price for Verdugo & Jeter Downs + more.
Olney:
Olney’s perspective:
“ There’s so much at stake for the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox in the potential Mookie Betts swap that you would assume that some way, somehow, the two sides will find a way to push the negotiations across the finish line. …
But the longer this takes to finish, anxiety within the Boston leadership seems to be building. At the time that elements of the deal were first reported, a rival executive noted that Derek Falvey, who leads the Twins’ baseball operations, has a deep understanding of pitching, and in this exec’s eyes, if Falvey is willing to give up Brusdar Graterol, the hardest thrower in the minors, then there must be some doubt about him. The Red Sox might have some concern about that, or Graterol’s medical history. Or perhaps it’s the natural revulsion some of their fans feel about trading Betts, one of the best players in the game. Or the word going around that Alex Verdugo, the big piece that the Red Sox would get, hasn’t been a perfect teammate.
But multiple evaluators with other clubs believe that Boston’s end of the proposed deal is pretty good — adding in the savings on Price’s contract, close to $50 million of the $96 million remaining. Price is 34 and pitching with some kind of mitigating condition in his elbow.
“What you have to ask yourself is, what would Price get if he was a free agent today?” said one official. Some estimates on that ranged from one year at $12 million, to $18 million over two years.
If the Betts deal with the Dodgers falls apart, then the Red Sox will be faced with exactly the same quandaries they’ve had all winter. If you start the season with Betts on the roster and the team is on the fringe of the wild-card contention in July, do you run the risk of angering the fan base even more by dealing him in the middle of a playoff race? Do you run the risk of retaining him and then seeing him walk away for almost nothing when he becomes a free agent next fall? And what do you do with the expensive group of starting pitchers — Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale — if they struggle in the first half or break down? There are just not going to be a lot of opportunities for the Red Sox to trim their payroll in a meaningful way.”
I know that Graterol throws hard, but so have a lot of other pitchers who never amounted to much. He may turn out to be great, or not., or something in-between. I’ve already seen Gonsolin, and I know that I like him.
And like I posted yesterday, sweetening the pot for Boston is distasteful to me.
But at this point I’ll leave the decision to AF, because he knows a lot more than I do, and because I trust his judgment.
I like the idea of Graterol in the Dodger’s bullpen. Who would the Dodgers send to Boston instead? Gray?