Andrew Friedman s Ten Commandments
The key thing that Andrew Friedman will not do is Panic! It s time for countermoves but it s not time to panic. Maybe countermoves is not the right term. Maybe the moves that Freidman will likely make would have been the same moves he makes anyway. I have no way of knowing. I am sure that David Price will be back and that makes the Dodgers better.
When Andrew Friedman was named President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers it was a dream come true for me. Let me be clear: I do not claim to know what he knows, but in my business I always hire people smarter than me (that narrows it down to 98% of the population), and Andrew is most certainly smarter than me… probably you too!
When he was hired, Stan Kasten charged him with winning by improving the farm system while winning at the MLB level as well. He was not allowed to “tank” for even one season, let alone multiple seasons, like just about every other team. Now, I have never read anyone who has published Andrew Friedman’s Ten Commandments, nor have I talked to him about them, but by observation, I am pretty sure that I have them exactly as he would word them.
#1 – “You must remain competitive year-over-year“. This is the most important commandment. Fans need to be engaged every year and it is Andrew’s responsibility to deliver that to Dodger fans – EVERY YEAR! The Dodgers are in a major market and in order to maximize income, they need to the relevant every year and they have been since he arrived on the scene. Being relevant puts butts in seats and those fans buy stuff like food and drink and Dodger swag! They would like to have a sellout every day.
#2 – “You must have a strong preference for versatility.” Players who can play multiple positions are regarded higher than players who can play only one position. It is something that is catching on all across baseball. When players can play multiple positions competently, then the Manager has a lot more flexibility and opportunities to exploit matchups.
#3 – “You must draft the best available player, regardless of need.” Well, in reality, you can’t always do that, but it holds up most of the time. The Dodgers have not drafted too many Left-Handed Pitchers lately, primarily because they have had opportunities to draft other players that they deem “the best player available.” Recently, they have added a number of large, workhorse-type Right-Handed Starting Pitchers. The only deviation of this was a spate of catchers drafted in the last six years because they were very thin at that spot.
#4 – “You must remember that college players are closer to the show than high school players.” Logan White had a strong preference for High School players, but it is much harder to project them as they take many years to fully mature and refine their skills. The Dodgers do take some high schoolers now (Jake Vogel one of the latest examples), but they draft a lot more College players as they are more mature and this, more projectable.
#5 – “You should not sign free agents that require draft pick compensation.” This is the only commandment that does not have the word “must” at the beginning – Rather it has the word “should.” In other words, stay away from signing players to whom a team has extended the Qualifying Offer. This should generally preclude signing DJ LeMahieu and/or Trevor Bauer. Every time you give up a draft pick, you are risking losing out on a star player. Of course, not all draft picks pan out, but the more high draft picks you keep, the more success you will have. It’s the simple law of averages.
#6 – “You must remember that International free agents can be very beneficial.” This is the commandment that Friedman has not mastered, as Friedman’s record with this group is bad (I can’t sugar-coat it). He needs to improve it… by a lot! I think he has by surrounding himself with a better staff of International Scouts and talent Evaluators. The Dodgers have one of the largest (if not THE largest) front office staffs in all of baseball. I think this will emerge as another quality source of players for the Dodgers.
#7 – “You must as many players off the Bone Pile and Dollar General as makes sense“. Probability and statistics are the mathematics used to understand chance and to collect, organize, describe, and analyze numerical data. Talent evaluators need this area of mathematics to help them judge the correctness of forming an argument supported by seemingly persuasive data. Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past events.
No one is perfect at this, but Insurance Companies make their money on the Law of Large Numbers to help estimate the value and frequency of future claims they will pay to policyholders. When it works perfectly, insurance companies run a stable business, consumers pay a fair and accurate premium, and the entire financial system avoids serious disruption. However, the theoretical benefits from the law of large numbers do not always hold up in the real world. The same is true with signing players whose value is depreciated by injury or happenstance. Some will pan out some will not.
This offseason the Dodgers have signed or traded for several reclamation projects, namely Tommy Kahnle, Corey Knebel, Andrew Schwaab, Brandon Morrow, Jimmy Nelson, James Pazos, and Carlos Asuaje. They have obligations of around $10 Million for all of those players… in total! Kahnle is only being paid $750,000 (only) not to play this year as he recovers from surgery, but all of the others have a shot at being good to great. Maybe all, maybe most, will not make it, but if a couple of Dollar General players do, then Friedman might have struck gold as he did with Morrow in the past.
#8 – “You must overstock the Farm System and be loathe to trade Top Prospects.” And keep it that way! The Dodgers have a “Top 5” Farm System and Andrew wants to keep it that way. He will make an occasional trade with prospects, but generally, it’s not the top-prospects. This is a fine balancing act, because to stay relevant in the future, you can’t trade away the future.
#9 – “You must keep a lot of smart people around you at all times.” There is strength in numbers and in a multitude of counselors, there is wisdom. If the Dodgers don’t have the largest Front Office, Analytics, and Scouting Personnel Departments in baseball, then I don’t know who does. Here’s a partial list:
Sr. Vice President, Baseball Operations: Josh Byrnes
Vice President & Assistant General Manager: Jeffrey Kingston
Vice President & Assistant General Manager: Brandon Gomes
Vice President, Scouting: David Finley
Vice President, International Scouting: Ismael Cruz
Vice President, Amateur Scouting: Billy Gasparino
Vice President, Player Personnel: Galen Carr
Sr. Director, Baseball Administration: Ellen Harrigan
Sr. Director, Team Travel: Scott Akasaki
Director, Baseball Operations: Alex Slater
Director, Player Development: William Rhymes
Director, Baseball Resources: Duncan Webb
Director, Baseball Systems Applications: Brian McBurney
Director, Baseball Systems Platform: John Focht
Director, Performance Science: Megan Schroeder
Director, Quantitative Analysis: Scott Powers
Director, Specialized Performance Programs: Eric Potterat
Director, Clubhouse Operations: Alex Torres
Assistant Director, Player Development: Matt McGrath
Assistant Director, Amateur Scouting: Zachary Fitzpatrick
Special Assistant to the President: Chase Utley
Special Assistant to the GM: Raul Ibanez
Special Assistant to the GM: Pat Corrales
Special Assistant, Baseball Operations: Joel Peralta
Special Instructor, Infield : Jose Vizcaino
Senior Developer II, Baseball Systems: Jonathan Funkhouser
Senior Analyst II, Performance Science: David Hill
Senior Scouting Advisor, Dominican Republic: Ralph Avila
Manager, Baseball Strategy: Michael Voltmer
Manager, Baseball Analytics: Ben Zauzmer
Manager, Baseball Operations: Ethan Levitt
Manager, Minor League Administration: Adriana Urzua
Manager, International Scouting: Javier Camps
Manager, Visiting Clubhouse: Mitch Poole
Manager, Umpires Clubhouse: Jerry Turner
Assistant Manager, Clubhouse: Jose Castillo
Coordinator, Minor League Field: Clayton McCullough
Coordinator, Strong Mind Program: AJ LaLonde
Cultural Coordinator, Strong Mind: Leo Ruiz
Coordinator, Minor League Strength & Conditioning: Brian Stoneberg
Coordinator, Minor League Medical: Kevin Orloski
Coordinator, Baseball Contracts & Finance: Albert Gilbert
Coordinator, Baseball Operations: Craig Weinhaus
Coordinator, Major League Video: Chad Chop
Coordinator, Major League Video/Replay: Jonathan Rhymes
Coordinator, Performance Operations: Will Ireton
Coordinator, Professional Scouting: Lucas Geoghegan
Coordinator, Performance Science: Tyler Duncan
Sr. Data Engineer, Baseball Systems: Drew Troxell
Sr. Developer, Baseball Systems: Ryan Casey
Sr. Quantitative Analyst: Nicholas Kapur
Sr. Quantitative Analyst: Jacob Coleman
Developer, Performance Science Applications: Timothy Reen
Sr. Analyst, Performance Science: Jason Gilberg
Quantitative Researcher: Max Weinstein
Biomechanical Quantitative Sr. Analyst: Emilee Fragapane
Quantitative Analyst: Esteban Navarro Garaiz
Quantitative Analyst: Justin Williams
Quantitative Analyst: Yuji Akimoto
Biomechanical Quantitative Analyst: Theodore Vandenberg
Analyst, Baseball Operations: Pat O’Shea
Analyst, Baseball Operations: Sam Elias
Assistant, Baseball Operations: Lizzy Pintarich
Assistant, Player Development: Mac Lozer
Assistant, Player Development: James Weilbrenner
That is an impressive list and I do not believe any other team has made that kind of financial commitment to excellence in Scouting, Analytics, and Player Development.
#10 – “You must absolutely Win World Championships.” This is the only commandment that contains the words “must absolutely.” Under Friedman, the Dodgers should have two World Championships, were it not for the cheating Asstericks. However, they do have one and are going for some more.
Watch Out for The Padres
Yesterday the Padres went on a shopping spree and ended up with three key players, or what appears to be. They signed Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim and traded for Yu Darvish, his personal catcher Victor Caratini, and Blake Snell. The four prospects the Padres gave up were going to be ranked #15, #17, #18, and #20 by Baseball America. They also gave up a solid back-of-the-rotation righthander in Zach Davies. To get Snell, the Padres gave up three more prospects, and Francisco Mejia who has 458 MLB at-bats and while he was once a Top Prospect, is still only 25.
Kim only costs money, but I am not high on him. I think he is utilityman at best, and the Padres say that Cronenworth will say at 2B while Joel Sherman says that Kim will go to 2B and Cronenworth will go to LF. Few Korean stars have come to the US and dominated. I remain unimpressed! Darvish and Snell are an improvement but I do not think they are “Cy Young” good. Still, if Kim can hit and field, adding these three players made the Padres a much better team, at the cost of eight prospects. The Rays got 4 very good players and Keith Law wrote this in The Athletic:
The Rays get a big haul in return, as they should, with Snell three years from free agency and under contract to earn $40.8 million over those seasons. They landed the Padres’ No. 2 pitching prospect, right-hander Luis Patiño; catcher Francisco Mejía, once a top-10 overall prospect who has not hit at all in the majors; catching prospect Blake Hunt, blocked in the Padres’ system by Luis Campusano; and 2020 draft pick Cole Wilcox, a first-round talent whom the Padres took in the third round and signed with first-round money.…The Rays made a damn good baseball trade here, but baseball is worse off for it.
The Padres still have several very good prospects, and while they did not “gut” the farm, they did diminish it’s depth. Make no mistake, the Padres are a team to be reckoned with. The Dodgers are in for a battle in 2021, and now we are about to see Andrew Friedman counter. In most years, he would not violate Commandments #5 or #8, but this is not most years and I think Andrew and the Dodger Brass like the taste of Champagne.
At this juncture, no one can predict what Friedman will do and he doesn’t have to do much, but I think he will. It won’t likely be Arenado or Lindor or Bauer, but with Friedman, you can never say never. I can’t see DJLM coming to LA and Friedman won’t give him 5 years, but he would be a fit. I still like a Suarez/Gray deal with the Reds. It would take some prospects, but maybe this is the time to give a few up.
The key thing that Andrew Friedman will not do is Panic! It’s time for countermoves but it’s not time to panic. Maybe “countermoves” is not the right term. Maybe the moves that Freidman will likely make would have been the same moves he makes anyway. I have no way of knowing. I am sure that David Price will be back and that makes the Dodgers better.
The glaring need they have is a RH power bat and a third-baseman. I would like to have Justin Turner back, but I don’t think he can be counted upon for more than 110 games… possibly not that many. A platoon of Rios and Turner at 3B could be very productive, but can Andrew count on that? A lot of teams are hurting and while the Dodgers lost a boatload of money in 2020 due to the Pandemic, the Dodgers could choose to go big in 2021 and exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold.
The fact, that Friedman has not signed any of the free agents frees up a great deal of money to make a Blockbuster deal and exceed the LTT if needed. Maybe he makes a few small moves until the start of the season because as some teams drop out of contention they are going to want some payroll relief and maybe that’s when Freidman pounces.
There are no guarantees in this business. The Padres may have “won” the offseason, but they still have to play the game. Even without Justin Turner, I believe the Dodgers have a better lineup than the Padres. They have better pitching and they have better depth, but the Padres may have closed the gap quite a bit.
Andrew will stick to his Ten Commandments and we will wait and see what (if anything) happens. Now is not the time to make a knee-jerk move. The farm system is loaded with players who are getting close to being ready for the show. Of the current Top 10 Dodger Prospects, the only players I would rule out making the club in 2021 are Diego Cartaya and Luis Rodriguez. All the other TOP 10 Prospects (Gray, Ruiz, Hoese, Busch, Miller, Beeter, White, and Amaya) could see action on the MLB level in 2021. I am not saying all of them will, just that they could. Zach McKinstry seems to be on track to be the utilityman but you never know. I would even rule out Cody Thomas and DJ Peters.
As you know, I am ambivalent about Gavin Lux, but I hope he becomes a beast – if he is ready, he has to play! The same is true with Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, and even Keibert Ruiz. Don’t be surprised if Edwin Uceta, Gerardo Carrillo, or Ryan Pepiot emerge as MLB-Ready pitchers. But, to get a talent like Suarez or Gray, it is going to hurt, just like it hurt to give up Alex Verdugo.
The Dodgers Plan
Of course, I really don’t know what Andrew Friedman will do. He rarely consults me… OK, HE NEVER CONSULTS ME, but I do like this idea (the same one I floated above):
The Dodgers trade a package of players built around Gavin Lux for Eugenio Suarez and Sonny Gray. Suarez is signed for the next 5 years at $10-15 Million per year when he will be 33. That’s what I call a “perfect trade.” He gives them a slugger who is seven years younger than Turner. I am not against re-signing JT, but only at the right price. He can DH (when the opportunity occurs), pinch-hit, spell Suarez and Muncy and be the Chase Utley of the Dodgers. If he signs with Toronto, both he and Toronto will regret it. A two-year $16 to $18 million deal is about right. He can work for the Dodgers for the next 25 years if he wants.
Sonny Gray is signed for the next three years at $10 to 12 Million Per year. I want him as a #4 or #5 starter. My Top Four starters are Kershaw, Buehler, Price, and one of Urias, May, or Gonsolin. The other two go to the bullpen for a year or two. Many MLB players believe David Price will be the Comeback Player of the Year after a mediocre season in 2019 and missing the 2020 season entirely.
Suarez fits nicely in a LH-heavy lineup:
- Betts (R) RF
- Seager (L) SS
- Smith (R) C
- Muncy (L) 1B
- Suarez (R) 3B
- Bellinger (L) CF
- Pollock/Raley (L-R) LF
- Taylor/McKinstry (L-R) 2B
Every spot in that lineup is capable of delivering 30+ Home Runs. The 8 hole is the most questionable in regards to power. CT3 is playing for a new deal. This is his first chance at big payday. I look for him to play like his hair is on fire!
That’s my dream, but what does Andrew Friedman and the Dodger Brass see? Go back and review his Ten Commandments and maybe you might have a clue, because I sure don’t!
The Walk
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Discussion (100)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Fantastic article Mark!
The Suarez/Gray trade is a good fit for the Dodgers in that it solves the 3B/RHB need and provides quality starting pitching for about $20 million per year. And each player is under team control for at least 3 years. However, I would not give up Lux as in my view he still has huge upside. In the 2020 disjointed season, it is very difficult to assess player performance. Sure Lux struggled, but so did many players including Suarez who had batting average of .202 in 2020. At the beginning of 2020 season, Fangraphs had Lux as the second best prospect in the entire MLB. He did not forget how to play baseball in the last 9 months! He was likely impacted by the four month layoff and a reported Covid delay in his return. In my view, Lux has a chance to be an all star middle infielder with athleticism and power that are rare for a player who just turned 23.
Given the recent salary dumping trades by the Reds, Rays and the Cubs, there are likely to be many teams looking to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds would likely be willing to part with Suarez contract for mid level prospects, and the Cubs would likely trade Bryant primarily for just the $19 million salary relief. Both struggled last year, but they each have tremendous power, and each had OPS over 900 in 2019.
I would prefer to keep Lux, sign JT, and trade for either Suarez or Bryant. There should be plenty of at bats at either DH, 3B, LF, or 1B to play Bryant or Suarez. At this point Sonny Gray is more of an insurance policy that will require significant prospects. If necessary due to injury, a quality starter will be available at the trade deadline from teams looking to further reduce payroll.
My rationale in taking Sonny Gray is two-fold. The Reds want to cut salary and Gray does that and allows the Dodgers to include fewer prospects. It also strengthens the bullpen with another live arm there.
Sonny Gray isn’t bad at all. He’s also not great at all. He’d be a nice #4 or a great 5 (or a 3 on an average team). But not someone you’d be happy about starting in October.
If you tell me that in 2021, Sonny Gray and Tony Gonsolin will get the same number of starts, I’d bet that Gonsolin puts up better numbers. And is way cheaper. There is absolutely zero reason or need for Sonny Gray to be on this team. He just is not needed. We have younger, more talented guys who deserve the 4 or 5 spot in May and Gonsolin. No need for them to be blocked by a Sonny Gray type.
We have two very brave pitt bulls for October, two guys that become Orel and Koufax in October, they are Buehler and Julio, two very difficult guys to beat when the lights are brightest, no MLB team has that, they will be very difficult to overcome, they will be a headache for the rest of MLB in October, they will continue to give us many joys.
I hope Freidman builds a strong bullpen so there is no need to bring Julio all over the place in October, he has to be a starter and form a fearsome October pairing with Buehler.
For the Dodgers nothing has changed, they in their own way, they should continue looking for their right bat and strengthen the bullpen and already on the date of changes add whatever is necessary, I am a fan of Luis “la piedra” Castillo and I I wish it was a Dodger.
Excellent article Mark. But like all of the commandments, some will be broken. I think the owners and FO will look at what SD did, analyze it, and then form a plan. Does Friedman even feel he needs to make a counter move. I am more of the mind that AF will address what he feels are the needs of the team. And we all know what they are. RH power, back end of the pen, and actually a good RH bat off of the bench. Also, I do not rate Raley as high as you do. It would be quite a leap for him to make the 26 man roster in a platoon role. Pollock tied for the team lead in homers in a 60 game season. I think he has enough pop out there to counter any LH hitter they use. The roster right now is sitting at 37, with one spot that will open when they can place Ferguson on the IL. There are 9 left handed hitters on the roster, well one of them, Ruiz , is a switch hitter. All of the infielders on the roster are lefty hitters since they list Taylor as an outfielder. I also think Zack Reks has as much of a chance to crack the roster as Raley. But that is just me. The period between now and spring training is going to be interesting. I would not put it past AF to analyze this, and then make a block buster of his own.
Well Mark, you put a lot of thought into this piece. Fun read.
Absolutely no one should sit on their laurels, the Dodgers included. Change, if done right, can be a positive. That said, I’m not sure what the Dodgers should do moving forward. I would have liked to see them trade for Blake Snell, just saw him as a potential difference maker. Oh well.
That’s what we’re really looking for, isn’t it? As it stands now, the Dodgers can put an incredibly good team on the field with some exceptional starting pitching and some young arms capable of rising to the next level. I can see Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and Dustin May doing just that in 2021. Urias has already made that jump.
So what about David Price. Not certain why he sat out, underlying health condition? Family concerns? Not sure what he will be if he plays. Seems likely, but … Dave Roberts indicated that wasn’t a certainty. If he does play, he could be very good or inconsistent, bordering on mediocre. I’m thinking he helps. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him opt out again. Obviously Friedman has a better idea of what will happen, but I’m sure he was surprised with the opt out last season.
I agree with the 10 commandments as listed. The Achilles Heal was international and the Dodgers learned quickly that throwing money at it didn’t solve much. They seem to be more focused and approaching it differently now.
I’m not sure the college versus high school stuff works. Better to just pursue opportunity. You can find success with both.
You could be right that Suarez and Gray is the right move, maybe I’m not being logical, but I really like Justin Turner. If he wasn’t there I would feel like something was missing. I still think the bullpen is the biggest opportunity for improvement. Lot of potential on the market.
What I really would like to see is the Dodgers ink Seager long term. Probably not the smart thing to do at the moment. Better to wait and simply outbid everybody else after next season.
Again, an excellent write-up Mark.
I really like that lineup, but would like it better with Lux at second. Let’s see if AF can substitute Hoese or Busch, we don’t need Gray and there’s no point signing JT if you have a 3B stud. Also, let’s just go ahead and stop putting a “/” next to Pollock.
I think Nr. 5 should be scratched from the list.
If you can sign a proven MLB star or superstar via free agency you should not think one second about the draft pick it will cost you. Draftees are never ever a sure thing, matter of fact most of them never pan out let alone become superstars.
I do not like a trade for Sonny Gray. If you want to strengthen the rotation think and act big (hey, we are THE DODGERS) and go for Trevor Bauer on a one year contract as he reportedly is looking for from a true contender .
If you do not like to give up a draft pick for a free agent star why give up a good prospect (and the Reds will look for one or two for Gray) for a mid rotation pitcher ? If you dont go for Trevor Bauer. I would rather see May in the rotation then someone like Gray. Suarez is a different story. He would make a ton of sense but it will cost a heavy price and if that price tag should include May I would decline.
Overall the Dodgers will have to improve their roster if they want to keep their lead on the Padres and stay ahead of the Braves. Staying pad will not be enough.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fantastic article Mark. On paper, the Padres definitely improved their team yesterday. From personal experience we know that Darvish can be wildly inconsistent and has trouble in high pressure situations. Snell had that outstanding game 6 against us in the World Series and many have based their opinion of him on that outing. I agree with Bear in that he is a solid #2/3, but is not an ace. He’s not consistently lights out (like Kershaw in his prime). Not even close. Throw out last year where he only pitched 50 innings, he has had only one season where is has won more games than lost. That was his Cy Young season where he only pitched 180 innings and averaged 5.8 innings per start. He may have won the CY that year, but that is not an “ace” worthy effort in my mind. Without the Rays having a strong BP the results wouldn’t have been what they were. And with Kim, it’s hard to get excited about most likely a utility player. And, what about their BP? That could be a major issue for SD. So, enough about the Padres’ acquisitions. Like I said looks good on paper, but they play the game on the field. Let’s see what happens.
Mark, I like the trade idea with the Reds for Gray and Suarez. It’s been mentioned before and I think it’s a solid move for the Dodgers. It gives us continued power at 3B (actually improved) and depth in our rotation. It would allow AF to have May and Gonsolin in the BP and available for the rotation when a starter gets injured (which will happen). Many say that we have plenty of starting pitching and we might…until we don’t. We have the prospects to make this happen and it’s not a budget buster. I say do it. If the DH is available in 2021 then another move could be Nelson Cruz. He seems to be ageless and can’t stop hitting 40+ HRs a year. Mark, I like your projected lineup. Your concern with the possible lack of power from Taylor/McKinstry is no big deal when you look at the rest of the lineup. They might get 15-20 HRs from that position which still very good.
So, I guess we’ll have to wait until 2021 to get any action from AF, but that’s OK. It’s going to be fun and interesting on what he does to improve the team.
I like your concept of these 10 Commandments. A good GM has to have a strategy other than ” do whatever you can afford to improve this years team”.
Besides resigning JT the Dodgers need a guy to fill a role like David Freese did. Right handed bat to play some 1st, 3rd and OF. Negotiations for trades take time and AF keeps them under the radar but I believe he’s in multiple discussions not only for that player but also for more bullpen help.