After the First Two Weeks

I wrote a post on slow starts by the Dodgers, and while I did not predict there would be a slow start, history tells us to expect it. When the team got off to such a fast start (8-2), comments like “What slow start” were readily made. I indicated that I was happy with the fast first 10 games, but I also cautioned that it could not last because:

a) The hitting was amazingly good and clutch, and that can never last, and
b) There is not enough starting pitching or relievers to handle 43 games in the first 46 days.

That is especially true with how the pitching was monitored in ST. No starting pitcher went more than 5 and no relief pitcher (that I can recall) pitched in back to back games. I agree with Mark that this was not a Doc issue, but an organizational one. The idea is that it is better to have fresher arms at the end of the season than to pitch 7-8 innings in April. This philosophy may seem to work since the Dodgers have gotten to the WS the last two years, only to fall. One reason is that the Dodger starters still were not getting into the 7th and 8th (or 9th) innings in September, and the bullpen, which was not very good to begin with, was gassed.

I do not want to say anyone is panicking, but the last four games (Cardinals) many have grown uncomfortable for many. I am not in that category as this is what I expected from the beginning. The fact that the Dodgers are above .500 is a plus for me. The team is not as good offensively as they were the first 10 games, and they are not as bad as they have played the last 5 games.

Some of the prior year problems have reared up including a 8-34 wRISP the last 5 games. They are back to HRs being the primary run producer. They had 8 HRs the last five games, and 5 were solo shots. Last night all five runs scored were due to HRs. The team pitched 41 innings the last five games with exactly 21 coming from starters and 20 from 10 relievers. For the season, 5 starters have pitched 73.1 innings, with only two (Maeda and Strip) averaging at least 5.0 IP. The bullpen has pitched 63 innings using 12 pitchers (okay, 11 pitchers 1 catcher). That is averaging 4.2 innings per game. That is just not sustainable over a 162-game season.

The Dodgers were planning on Strip and Julio being in the bullpen, but I am not sure why. Last year, every starting pitcher went on the DL and 4 at one time early in the season. Why should anyone expect there to be a different scenario this year? Kershaw may be back on Monday but for what, 4-5 innings? Who knows when Hill will be back. Hill was due to pitch BP on Friday, and if all goes well, he could be going on a rehab assignment next week. If all goes as it did with Kersh, Hill could be ready to pitch in a ML game by April 23 in Chicago against the Cubs. Although they are now thinking that Hill may only need one rehab start, or maybe that is what they need. When Hill returns that will be the earliest that Urias will come out of the rotation. That is one or two more starts for a pitcher who was not expected to start in the beginning of the year so that his innings can be monitored and managed. Maybe Mark thinks that Urias can go 150 IP in 2019, but Dodger management does not appear to agree. We have seen a reluctance on the part of management to push starting pitchers, rather relying on their depth to keep innings down. We will see how this story unravels.

Strip will remain in the rotation until Ryu comes back and if everyone else stays healthy (including Strip), he can then move to the pen. I cannot see Ryu not making at least one rehab start with a groin injury, so maybe early May?

Thus far in 2019, the bullpen has been either very good or very bad. But five pitchers have appeared in at least 7 games (50% before Friday’s game). Ferguson and Floro have been the two non-closer relievers who have pitched decently. But with the 0.00 ERAs for both Floro and Ferguson, we need to look a little deeper.

So while their top 4 relievers have good ERAs, cumulatively they have inherited 12 runners, and 7 of them have scored. I do not care how you review metrics, that stat is not good. With the number of games they have already appeared in, how many IL trips can we project coming up.

Jansen – 6 games – 6.1 IP – 1.42 ERA – 4 inherited runners, 2 scored
Ferguson – 7 games – 6.1 IP – 0.00 ERA – 3 inherited runners, 2 scored
Floro – 8 games – 9.1 IP – 0.00 ERA – 3 inherited runners, 1 scored
Alexander – 8 games – 6.2 IP – 1.93 ERA – 3 inherited runners, 2 scored

Yimi Garcia has appeared in 8 games and has a 10.80 ERA in 6.2 innings. He may have appeared in 8 games, but he has surrendered at least one run in 6 of those 8 games and has allowed at least 1 hit in 7. Pedro Baez has been a microcosm of the team in his Jekyll and Hyde results. Baez has appeared in 7 games with 9.0 IP. In 3 of those games (2.2 IP) he has allowed at least 2 runs (8 in total, 5 earned). In the other 4, Petey has pitched 6.1 innings allowing zero runs on 1 hit and 1 walk.

Joe Kelly has been a disaster thus far. He has appeared in 6 games (7.1 IP) and in 5 of those games (7.0 IP) he has surrendered 10 runs on 15 hits and 2 walks. He also allowed 3 of the 4 inherited runners to score. I cannot see how Doc can pitch him at any relevant point in a game right now. The other true relievers that have appeared (Schultz, Stewart, Santana, and Chargois) have not appeared in enough to consider whether they are a benefit or not.

Offensively, again the team does not overuse their regulars in ST. But they got off to such a good start, that perhaps that plan worked out. However, when the pressure got a little tighter, they seemed to go back to what they have done in previous seasons. Swing hard and not worry about contact. I am not as worried. Hopefully St. Louis was an aberration and they can get back into a proper mindset back home.

Corey seems to be seeing the ball much better and is getting more aggressive the more comfortable he gets at the plate. JT still has not got untracked and has yet to go Yard. The Dodgers are going to need Corey and JT all year. The Dodgers need those two guys to set the table. Once that happens, the offense should really begin to hum. Against Milwaukee, they are still going to be facing three RHSP, so Joc should be in the lineup. Joc should continue to stay in the lineup as long as the Dodgers get RHSP. Kike and Belli are having a tremendous start, and hopefully that will continue. Barnes and Martin have also had a good start. With the Dodgers needing a solid defensive catcher while Martin recovers, I would rather see Will D. Smith get the backup slot. Getting onto the 40 man should not be a problem.

CT3 is a problem right now. He has appeared in all 14 games and has 3 hits in 31 AB (.097/.263/.226/.489). He is 0-18 against RHP. He has struck out in 10 of his 38 PA, or 26+%. He has an option, so maybe it might be best to send him down to “get straight”. Tim Locastro can take his place, once he gets added to the 40 man. Regardless, right now, CT3 should be a late inning defensive utility player. Just as I keep reading that Joc should never get to face a LHP, CT3 should never face a RHP.

It is not where I would have preferred to be after an 8-2 start, but 8-7 does not seem out of line for how this team prepares for the first month of the season. I do not expect the Pads to continue to put up W’s at the current pace. I do believe the Dodgers will win the NL West going away, but with a burnt-out bullpen, and not a very good one to begin with, they will have a problem getting past the better NL teams in the playoff, much less the AL super teams. I know Mark likes to point that the way the Dodgers are structured, they should continue to contend into the future. But for me, after 31 years, contending is not enough. Isn’t it about time the Dodgers are the best team at the end of the WS? Next year it will get even more difficult.

Caleb Ferguson gets the start today.

Minor League Report

OKC and Iowa Cubs game was postponed due to inclement weather and the teams will play a pair today.

Tulsa 8 – Arkansas Travelers 2 (Mariners)

Gavin Lux and Cristian Santana led a 13 hit assault with 3 hits apiece. Logan Landon and Zach McKinstry had two each, with McKinstry adding a 3 run HR. JD Martin had a very shaky 1st inning allowing a pair of runs on 1 hit, but 3 walks and 3 stolen bases, but settled down after that. Michael Boyle relieved Martin and pitched 2.2 perfect innings and registering 6 Ks. Shea Spitzbarth finished up with a scoreless 1.2 IP allowing a single with 3 Ks. Mitchell White gets the start for the Drillers today.

RC 4 – Lancaster JetHawks 8 (Rockies)

The Quakes dropped their 2nd straight to the JetHawks. Donovan Casey with 2 hits and Devin Mann with 2 were the bulk of the offense. Connor Wong went deep for the 3rd time. Gerardo Carrillo started and could not get anything going pitching 1.2 innings allowing 3 runs, on 3 hits, 1 walk, and 2 Ks. 3 relievers allowed 5 runs (2 earned) with 3 hits but 6 walks. The lone pitching star belonged to Jordan Sheffield who pitched a perfect 1.2 innings with 3 Ks. Michael Grove will get his 2nd start today.

Great Lakes 4 – West Michigan Whitecaps 3 (Tigers)

Pitching was the star for the Loons and Guillermo Zuniga (4.2 IP) and Jose Chacin (4.1 IP) went the distance. Zuniga started and allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits 1 walk and 3 Ks. Chacin finished and allowed a single run on a 8th inning solo HR. He gave up 3 other hits with 0 walks and 5Ks. Offensively Niko Hulsizer had the sole multi hit game with 2, including his 5th double. Luke Heyer and Jacob Amaya each hit their 1st HR of the season. Jeronimo Castro draws the start today hoping to build on his first start of 4 scoreless innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts.