A Look to 2024

I don’t know about anyone else but I like it when Kershaw talks with Joe and Orel during the game. He’s not interested in it but I think he would be a pretty good color commentator.

So Rojas is a better hitter against LHP than Outman? Because Taylor could be playing SS allowing Outman to start.

Syndergard wasn’t good last year throwing in the mid nineties and now he’s in the high eighties. This isn’t going to end well!

This was a piss poor managed game. Rojas instead of Outman. Jackson in a close game. Another loss on Doc.

That was like watching someone drown. It made me angry to watch that. I mean where the *@ck is Dodger Pride.

Tonights game was a joke. Offense is a joke.

I am SO OOO ready for ABS.

On another thread, our fearless leader posed a question about whether Outman’s current advantage over Vargas in BABIP–or batting average on balls in play–is just a matter of luck.

But then, Mark has long insisted that Outman, who is LADT’s 4th or 5th-ranked OF prospect, is an exceptionally lucky player–obviously not as skilled as Pages, Ramos, DeLuca or Busch. After all, Outman homered in his first AB in the majors. He hit 30 other bombs in the minors during the season, which just goes to show how lucky he’s been.

Anyway, I decided to take the Timmons Challenge!

if we delve a bit deeper into the advanced stats, I think the evidence suggests not that Outman is lucky–but maybe Vargas is a bit unlucky.

Who hits the ball harder? Outman or Vargas?

Outman has the edge in exit velocity, by about 3 mph. That may not seem like much, but it can be the difference between a liner that is snagged and one that gets through for a hit.

Who gets more barrels? Outman or Vargas?

Again, it’s Outman–and it’s really not close. Outman’s barrel per plate appearance is at 12.5% this season, while Vargas’s B/PA is at 4.9%. (This may help explain why Outman has hit 3 HRs and Vargas has yet to hit one. I assum that HRs are still factored in BABIP, even though the ball usually ends up over the fence.)

Something else I noticed on FanGraphs: Outman’s BABIP seemed pretty healthy in the minors , and so did Vargas’s. So maybe Vargas has been a bit unlucky. He does make contact–but not as much hard contact as Outman.

At any rate, the biggest surprise in Vargas’s game this season has been his walk rate. Perhap it’s a statistical fluke based on the still-small sample, but he is walking at a much higher rate than he did in the minors. But Outman is also walking more too, which suggests that his plate discipline is improving as well. As for luck, I’d say the Dodgers are lucky to have both guys.

I feel the need to chide Mark about another matter.

He took strong exception to my suggestion that Max, not Taylor, should have started against the Giants after his first 2-HR day. As an old mentor of mine used to say, “Strike when the iron is hot,” and Max was suddenly hot–so why bench him in favor of the ice-cold Taylor? Taylor wound up striking out three times that day–but I would assure you I wanted Max in the lineup before that debacle. (Nice blast today, though! Also by Max!)

Anyway, Mark’s defense pointed out–incorrectly–that Max was one-for9 in his career against Alex Wood and also–correctly this time–that a Wood pitch had broken Max’s finger once.

Here is what Mark posted to prove his point. I don’t think you have to be a really careful reader to see the problem here.

” 1. Max had a scheduled day off that day because he was 1-9 against Wood (source: https://usatoday.sportsdirectinc.com/baseball/mlb-preview.aspx?page=/data/MLB/matchups/g4_preview_29.html)

Muncy does have a homer — but just one other hit — in nine career at-bats against Wood, who threw 71 pitches in three innings in a tag-team effort with Jakob Junis in his only previous start this season against the Chicago White Sox.

2. Wood like to come inside to Muncy and last year hit Max in the hand, breaking Max’s finger, which contributed to his bad season).

3. Max had that game scheduled as an “off day” ahead of time, and when players have an off day, they plan for it and truly take the day off. Maybe they can pinch-hit, but it is what it is called and it was scheduled.

So, Max was 1-9 against Wood. Wood broke his finger pitching inside, and it was a scheduled off day. It easy to be a legend in your own mind when you don’t have all the facts.”

So that’s what Mark posted–and this is what amused me: “Max does have a homer–but just one other hit–in nine career at bats against Wood.”

So that means that Max was 2-9 against Wood, including a homer. Not bad at all! That means he’s a pretty dangerous hitter against Wood!

I decided to delve a bit deeper. It’s true that a Wood pitch broke Max’s finger in 2000–but it was in the next game that they faced each other that Max took him deep. Anyway, it’s clear that Max didn’t shy away from Wood because of the broken finger, and that Roberts didn’t shy away either.

Now, let me express something else.

While I enjoy chiding Mark for various reasons–like his propensity to dish out gratuitous insults, or the supposed Zen master sagacity before us mere “grass-hoppahs!”– I greatly appreciate all the effort and humor he puts into LADT. We wouldn’t be ranting and raving or bitching and moaning here with Mark’s efforts.

So as I chide Mark, I also salute our scout-in-chief!

Outman, he insists, may be nothing more than “a flash in the pan,” while he is predicting that Vargas will be ROY.

He may be right about Outman.

But a lot of gold nuggets started out as a flash in the pan.

I just saw that video of Busch playing 3B.

Nice! He looked solid–though none of the plays were particularly challenging.

Why the hell weren’t they trying him there after he got drafted? Sure, they chose Hoese ahead of him to play 3B…. but why wasn’t Busch getting some action?

Bizarre.

Mark, heading to Scarsdale NY to watch my 10 year grandson play a doubleheader in baseball and my 13 year granddaughter play lacrosse under the lights. I will be unable to post today’s Dodger lineup. Will post Sunday’s lineup.

At least the Padres lost today too.

Best news about this game today for me is that Max hit his 6th HR, pushing his OPS near .950. Perhaps he really is on track to be the 35-HR Max we used to know.

Some of these “home-cooking” lineups have me thinking that maybe Bryan Reynolds may not be needed, if Vargas or even Smith winds up in LF.

While that’s a promising video of Busch at 3B, I still like Chapman if the price is acceptable. He’s a true vacuum who would improve the performance of every pitcher. Perhaps only Arrenado is better. And he’s never hit better than he is hitting now, batting cleanup in a strong lineup. He attended Cal State Fullerton, so SoCal might have some attraction for him.

Still, I’d rather have Ohtani.

But that’s for next season. This season, I hope we find out what Busch can do.

Wow. Those were some very long home runs.