5 Out of 4 People Struggle With Math

There is still a lot of chatter that the Dodgers want Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, or Trevor Bauer. I am of the opinion that at the start of the 2021 season, none of those players will be with the Dodgers.

If the Dodgers were to trade for Lindor or Arenado, they would have to trade some pretty good prospects (actually… really, really good prospects) in order to get either one. Then, they would be on the hook for $199 million more with Arenado, or facing paying Lindor $300+ Million for 10 years.

Francisco Lindor

I am going to suggest if you think Andrew Friedman will trade the requisite prospects NOW for Lindor, that you are not really paying attention. In Lindor’s case, he will be a free agent in a year. The Dodgers currently have a shortstop, who is pretty good, so if the Dodgers really want Lindor and are prepared to pay him big dollars to sign, why gut the farm to do it? Just wait a year and sign him as a free agent.

You might say, “But that’s what they did with Mookie Betts.” That IS what they did with Betts, but that was a “one off.” A “one off” is something that is done, made, or happening only once, not as part of a regular sequence. Friedman realized he was missing a piece to a championship team and identified Mookie Betts as that piece. It was a bold move yo give up Alex Verdugo, who is a very good plyer in his own right, but the Dodgers needed a star who was a leader.

Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Will Smith are good to great players, but not “vocal leaders.” Justin Turner and Clayton Kershaw are leaders but in a different way. The Dodgers are now “Mookie’s team.” They needed “that guy.” They don’t need another “that guy” and make no mistake about it, Lindor is “that guy.” I am sure they could co-exist on a team, but sometimes a pack can only have one “alpha dog.”

The Dodgers are currently the “odds on favorites” to win the 2021 World Series. Andrew Friedman is intent on building a “sustainable model” team that can win year-in-and-year out. To trade for Lindor now would limit that sustainability. The Dodgers player development is exceptional and we hear good reports about Busch, Hoese, Lux, Ruiz, Gray, and Rios. If the Dodger want to keep Corey Seager (and I believe they do), he will have to get a contract worth $25 to $30 Million a year. The same is true with Bellinger and Buehler.

If Clayton wants to continue his career, then the Dodgers will have to pony up $20 plus Million for him and Urias will have to be paid as well. By 2023, the Dodgers could likely have $100+ million tied up in three players (Betts, Seager, and Bellinger). Lindor had a bad year in 2020, but if he bounces back and has an All-Star season in 2021, he will get that $350 million deal. I see Seager and Bellinger being a notch below that. Could the Dodgers make financial room for Lindor? Yes, but I do not see them trading for him this year. If they get him, it will be as a free agent… and that is a year away. Forbes has a great article on the Indians trading Lindor.

Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer is another story. He won the Cy Young Award in 2020 with a 1.73 ERA and an otherworldly 0.795 WHIP. However in 2019, his ERA was 4.48! In 2018, he had a nice season with a 2.21 ERA, but in his previous six seasons prior to 2018, the ERA’s he put up were in the 4.00’s, 5.00’s and 6.00’s! Has he just “suddenly figured it out?” He’s a Driveline Believer and maybe he has just figured it out, but you have to at least have some trepidation that he could be due for another “so-so” season.

Bauer has said that he wants to play on one year deals, but money talks and someone will give him a multi-year deal… and he will take it! It won’t be the Dodgers. Trevor Bauer also say that he’s only good at two things: “throwing baseballs and pissing people off.” He said that himself in an article in Sports Illustrated. The story also goes into detail about his unconventional training methods, which include pumping electricity into his brain.

Bauer also has the reputation as a “poor teammate” and while some love him, others hate him! He would be a huge risk I would be unwilling to take in what is one of the best clubhouses in baseball. I do not think Trevor Bauer will ever be a Dodger.

Nolan Arenado

If the Rockies trade Nolan, there will be few teams in on it. Not many teams can afford to pay him. The Dodgers could afford to pay him… and forget about the Rockies chipping in some money. That’s ain’t happening! If Arenado opts out of his contract after next season, the Rockies will only get a draft pick, so the Rockies may be inclined to trade him IF they can do better than get a draft pick.

I am not convinced that Arenado will him in LA like he has in Colorado. In fact, he won’t – the only question is “How far will he drop off?” The only way I see this happening is that the Rookies would agree to take Gavin Lux, Mitch White and Edwin Rios for Nolan. Nolan would still be a Gold Glove Third-Baseman, but he’s not the #3 hitter the Dodgers need. At best, he’s a #5 hitter in LA… and I am not even convinced of that.

Can Cody Bellinger be that #3 hitter? Maybe, but that would leave three LH hitters in a row with Seager, Bellinger and Muncy at #2, #3 and #4. Kris Bryant would be a better #3 hitter and would cost less than Arenado. To me, it makes more sense to re-sign Justin Turner and trade Gavin Lux for one year of Kris Bryant. Lux would be an hour away from his Kenosha, Wisconsin home, and might be more relaxed.

I am not down on Lux, but Bryant is former MVP playing for a new contract after a down year. I could see him putting up monster numbers! JT and Rios could platoon at 3B and if the DH is back then both could play. The Dodgers would have a more devastating lineup with Turner, Rios, and Bryant than with Arenado. If the DH is back, look at this lineup:

1. Betts RF (R)
2. Seager SS (L)
3. Bryant LF (R)
4. Muncy 1B (L)
5. Turner DH (R)
6. Bellinger CF (L)
7. Smith C (R)
8. Rios 3B (L)
9. Taylor 2B (R)

That is a very balanced, powerful lineup! No matter how bad fans want Arenado, Andrew Friedman is going to do what is best for the team. Stay tuned… in about a week, the stove will heat up… Bauer, Arenado and Lindor do not add up, but 5 out of 4 people struggle with math!

Good News

Tommy Lasorda is improving and is off the ventilator. It turns out that the Big Dodger in the Sky wasn’t ready for him and the Devil was afraid he would take over! Get Well Tommy!

Revolution