2021 and Beyond the Dynasty Continues

Dodger’s Offseason Plans

The Dodgers won the World Series in 1988 and it only took thirty-two more years to win another Championship.  I guarantee the next ones (notice I did not say “one?”) will be much sooner. Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman got the proverbial monkey off their backs and both can now rightly take their respective places as “baseball icons.”

I do want to say a few things about Roberts and Friedman.  If anyone doesn’t like either person, I will suggest that you have a deep-seated problem. One of the first things Andrew Friedman did after winning the World Series was to apologize to Dodger fans that it took so long.  Then, Doc showed what a class act he is by thanking many players, fans, as well as Ross Stripling, by name.  The players absolutely love Friedman and Roberts and the reason is that they are “good guys” who genuinely care.

Dave Roberts has the highest winning percentage of any Dodger manager with over 400 games managed.  It is .615, while Alston is at .558 and Lasorda sits at .526.  Walter Alston won 23 post-season games, while Tommy won 31 postseason games.  The next time Dave Roberts wins a postseason game, he will tie Tommy for first place in Dodger lore.

The Dodgers have built a culture of winning – they hire great people, draft or sign great character players and play the game the right way.  By the way, that is not going to end anytime soon as the Dodgers are already Preseason favorites to win the 2021 World Series.

However, just as soon as one season is over, Andrew Friedman and Company have to start planning for 2021 and what it will bring.  Baseball is not in a good place right now.  Many teams are terminating employees and the amount of money owed by many teams is crippling (if you believe their numbers).  It will not be “business as usual” in 2021 for baseball. The top free agents will get paid, but the second and third tier of free agents will not be so lucky. 

I think that the season will likely start in May, 2021 and be 120 to 130 games.  I am assuming that a vaccine for COVID-19 will be available, but if it is not, we could see a repeat of 2020.  The pandemic has really hurt most baseball teams, but the Dodgers have deep pockets and are more prepared to weather the storm.  They will most likely flourish during these troubling times because of the financial strength of the organization.

This is not true of many smaller market teams who could be crippled.  The ramifications of the pandemic are not fully known, but I would not be surprised is MLB had to “rescue” or take over a franchise or three.  What can Dodger fans expect for 2021?  Well, first, we have to look at the Dodgers own Free Agents:

Dodgers Own Free Agents

The Dodgers have some of their own who are officially now free agents, namely:

1. Pedro Baez – $4,000,000.
2. Kiké Hernandez – $5,900,000.
3. Joc Pederson – $7,750,000.
4. Blake Treinen – $10,000,000.
5. Justin Turner – $16,000,000.
6. Alex Wood – $4,000,000.

Total: $47,650,000.

Of course, Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers would welcome them all back… but at what cost?  Realistically, only two or three will likely be back, depending upon the market this winter. Baez likely will not be back.  I think that is a done deal! Pederson will likely get a multi-year deal and not be back. The same would seem to be true of Kike Hernandez, but there is more here than meets the eye.  The Dodgers love Kike and he loves the Dodgers – I think whether he returns or not depends upon his market and it may not be great with all of the financial uncertainty across the baseball landscape.

What about Treinen and Wood?  Blake has been dazzling at times and so-so at others.  He has had one great year and some OK ones.  The Dodgers won’t pay him $10 Million again, but will anyone else?  I could see a 1-year deal at $6 million, but maybe Treinen can’t see that. If Alex Wood wants to come back, it would have to be as a reliever and at about the same salary as 2020.  Will he wrap his head around that?  I have no clue… but I would love to have him.  In the past two years, he has shown that he can be an effective reliever.  Starter?  Not so much!

The one Free Agent the Dodgers do want back is Justin Turner, but he will be 36 next month and realistically, is no longer a starting third-baseman.  DH is his best spot and assuming there is  DH next year in the NL, I can see the Dodgers offering him a 2-year $15 million deal with a club option for a 3^rd year. By the way, I will have no comment on his COVID-19 test until I hear the full story. The media is savaging him right about now because that’s what those idiots do (ask me how I really feel).

Off-the-Books

• Morgan Cooper – The Dodgers believed University of Texas right-handed pitcher Morgan Cooper, taken with their 62nd overall pick in the second round of the 2017 Major League Draft could be fast-tracked.  Said scouting director Billy Gasparino. “Given his experience at the University of Texas, we definitely expect him to hit the ground running. The difference with him is that most of his stuff is present, so we’re not waiting for a pitch to come, or to work on the delivery. We think a lot of it is in place.” Then he disappeared. Where’s Waldo… I mean… Morgan Copper?
• Jesen Therrien – Therrien was the Phillies’ 17th-rounder in 2011 out of Canada, and has recently worked with Eric Gagne. He is now 27 years old and has not pitched since 2017 due to Tommy John Surgery.  Technically, not still Dodgers’ property, he is a tantalizing unknown. Said to have  95 MPH fastball and wipeout slider, he was once considered a good relief prospect.  Who knows now?

Organization Pitchers

We really have no idea what type of player development was accomplished in 2020 at the “alternate site.”  I am sure the Dodger coaches, managers and brass were working with the guys to improve their skills, but that is going to be pretty hard to quantify without “hard data.” I have listed what I believe are my Top 15 Dodger Minor League Pitchers:

1. Josiah Gray – He has a solid fastball with late movement, a nice slider and a changeup that is a “work-in-progress.” He seems to miss a lot of bats and has a solid future as a starter… except that he is blocked by six, count ‘em, 6 starters ahead of him.  It has not been Friedman’s M.O., but I would not mind seeing him pitch out of the pen in 2021.
2. Mitchell White – Mitch has three plus pitches (fastball, slider and curve) but has difficulty staying healthy.  I think a decision should be made to send him to the pen, where he could become a high-leverage reliever.
3. Bobby Miller – At 6’ 5” and 220 pounds, Miller is a prototypical starting pitcher. He is a great athlete with tremendous arm strength and electric stuff.  His fastball approaches 100 MPH and his slider (cutter) and changeup (splitter) are all plus pitches.  He should be ready in 2022… if not sooner.
4. Clayton Beeter – Beeter is a 6-foot-2, 220-pound right-hander who throws a four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup from an over-the-top delivery that allows him to throw downhill and create deception. His fastball and curveball are above-average and allow him to overpower hitters. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and has touched 98 mph. His curveball might be his best pitch and serves as an extremely effective outpitch. It consists of 12-to-6 break and typically generates a high percentage of strikeouts.  He certainly projects as a starter… probably in 2022.
5. Landon Knack – Landon is a fast-track work in progress.  He now hits 98 MPH with his fastball and his slider is an emerging out pitch.  That’s all he needs to be successful reliever, but the Dodgers may view him as a starter. At any rate, he could be close to the Show..,
6. Michael Grove – The Pandemic certainly impeded Grove’s progress.  The Dodgers picked him in the 2018 draft while he was recovering from Tommy John Surgery.  He has a 96+ MPH fastball and his slider used to be a plus pitch.  At last check, that pitch was not back, but 2021 is a big year for him.  He could end up in the bullpen easier than he could start in my opinion.
7. Gerardo Carrillo – He has a plus fastball that can hit 98 to 99 MPH and not much else.  In addition, he has control issues.  His future is in the bullpen, but he needs another pitch and has been working on a cutter.  Still only 22 years old, he could move quickly IF he can master the cutter. Harold Uhlman has a nice piece on him HERE.
8. Edwin Uceta – He has been adding velocity to his fastball, which touches 95 and also has a changeup that mirrors his fastball.  He is another pitcher that I see in the bullpen, not as a starter.  He has great makeup and according to people in the organization, he has an “advanced feel for pitching.”
9. Kendall Williams – Kendall was part of the Ross Stripling trade, and is another large prototypical starter.  The big RHP is 6’ 6” and 205 pounds whose fastball currently is 94 to 95 MPH.  Still only 20 years old, he is very projectible as a starter.  Williams possesses the normal secondary off-speed pitches in a slider, curveball, and change-up. His curveball will be his best secondary pitch, mostly due to his size and three-quarter arm slot. He should arrive in 2023.  Harold Uhlman has an excellent piece of Kendall Williams HERE.
10. Ryan Pepiot – Harold Uhlman wrote extensively about Ryan right HERE. I can’t cover him any better. He could be ready in 2022.
11. Jimmy Lewis – Where do they keep getting these 6’6” RHP? He is potentially a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 95+ fastball and plus control.  2023 is his target.
12. Brett de Geus – Harold has the goods on Brett right HERE.  I think Brett will be in the Dodger bullpen in 2021, filling the role of Pedro Baez. 
13. Andre Jackson – Fresh off of Tommy John Surgery in 2017, Jackson is very new to pitching.  His fastball hit 98 with late “life” and he has a good changeup.  He is on a starters path, but I think he ends up in the bullpen… probably in 2022. He is already 24 years old and extremely athletic at 6’ 3” and 210.
14. Robinson Ortiz – This smallish 20-year-old lefthander. His fastball hits 97 and he also has a good changeup.  His breaking ball is a work in progress, but he has drawn comparisons to Caleb Ferguson who will be out until 2022.  Ortiz should be ready for the bullpen in 2022.  I do not see him as a starter.
15. Hyun-il Choi – He’s a 20-year-old RHP from South Korea.  If he can add a couple of MPH to his fastball (currently 94 MPH) and continue to refine his curves and changeup, he has a chance to be a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He’s likely 3 years away.

The Dodgers have lots of power arms in the Farm System. In 2020, they graduated Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Victor Gonzalez (who was the Dodgers #30 Top Prospect).  The system is loaded with pitchers, most of who will become relievers.

Later, we will look at Position Players… and there are plenty of those, as well.  I do not see the Dodgers going after any big free agent pitchers (Bauer) because they simply do not need to.  Going into 2021, they have a plethora of high-quality starters:

1. Buehler
2. Kershaw
3. Urias
4. Price
5. May
6. Gonsolin
7. Gray
8. White

The Farm System is stacked and staged for year-over-year growth and where I am from, they call it a dynasty! I will cover the position players soon and I will tell you my TOP 15 does not include D.J. Peters.

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