2019 Top Prospects Update

It’s that time of again. Many of the mid-year prospect updates are in. My top three favorite sources of prospect lists are Baseball America, FanGraphs, and MLB Pipeline (in no particular order). Baseball America came out in early July with their update, now including the 2019 draft picks. FanGraphs came out with their update and also included current year draftees and IFA. Future Dodgers updated their Top 101 Dodger prospect list, including current year draftees and IFA. I am somewhat surprised that MLB Pipeline has not yet updated their list with the 2019 draft and IFA prospects. So for this post I am not including them. They will probably get their own post once that prospect list update is published.

When considering the Top 50 prospects, the top farm organizations are as follows (Baseball America/FanGraphs):

Tampa Bay Rays – 4/4
San Diego Padres – 5/3
Chicago White Sox – 4/5
Atlanta Braves – 4/4

When considering the top 100 prospects, the top farm organizations are as follows (Baseball America/FanGraphs):

Tampa Bay Rays – 9/8
San Diego Padres – 7/4
Atlanta Braves – 6/6
Chicago White Sox – 5/5
Seattle Mariners – 5/4
Minnesota Twins – 4/5
LAD – 4/4
Baltimore Orioles – 4/4
Cleveland Indians – 4/4
Arizona DBacks – 1/5

The two remaining NL West Teams are:
SF Giants – 4/3
Colorado Rockies – 1/1

The seemingly consensus #1 overall prospect is Rays SS Wander Franco. There are 8 consensus Top 10:
Wander Franco – Rays SS – 1/1
Jo Adell – LAA OF – 2/3
Luis Robert – CSW OF – 3/22
MacKenzie Gore – SD Padres LHSP – 4/6
Adley Rutschman – Baltimore C – 5/7
Bo Bichette – Toronto SS – 6/4
Casey Mize – Detroit RHSP – 7/10
Forrest Whitley – Houston RHSP – 8/5
Yordan Alvarez – Houston DH – 9/25
Keston Hiura – Brewers 2B – 10/8
Royce Lewis – Twins SS – 22/2
Dustin May – LAD RHSP – 27/9

Other Dodger Top 100:
Gavin Lux – SS – 11/11
Keibert Ruiz – C – 52/13
Will D. Smith – C – 56/69

The only other officially rated Dodger prospect is RHSP Josiah Gray. All FanGraphs prospects with a Future Value (FV) 50 or greater have a prospect placement. Josiah Gray has a 50 FV and is ranked #109. He is considered the LAD #5 prospect by FanGraphs. I will be curious to see where he lands with MLB Pipeline.

There are 1,215 prospects with a 35+ FV. The teams with the most listed prospects with a 35+ or better rating:

San Diego Padres (64)
NYY (59)
Tampa Bay Rays (58)
Texas (53)
Houston (49)
Twins (49)
Cubs (43)
LAD, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Cleveland (42)

FanGraphs FV Value – Definition:
20 – Organization Guy – WAR –

30 – Up & Down – WAR <0.1

40 – Bench Player – WAR 0.0 – 0.7

45 – Low End Regular/Platoon – WAR – 0.8 – 1.5

50 – Average Everyday Player – WAR – 1.6 – 2.4

55 – Above Average Player – WAR – 2.5 – 3.3

60 – All Star – WAR – 3.4 – 4.9

70 – Top 10 Overall – 5.0 – 7.0

80 – Top 5 Overall – WAR > 7.0

LAD FV:
Dustin May – 60
Gavin Lux – 60
Keibert Ruiz – 60
Will Smith – 50
Josiah Gray – 50

45 + (2)
Tony Gonsolin, Jeter Downs
45 (4)
Omar Estevez, Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Diego Cartaya
40 + (7)
DJ Peters, Luis Rodriguez, Dennis Santana, Connor Wong, Jacob Amaya, Alex De Jesus, Jeren Kendall
40 (15)
Mitchell White, Cristian Santana, Michael Grove, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, Ryan Pepiot, Yadier Alvarez, Gerardo Carrillo, Jimmy Lewis, Jordan Sheffield, Miguel Vargas, Carlos Rincon, Carlos Duran, Robinson Ortiz, Josh Sborz
35 + (9)
Andy Pages, Zach Willeman, Cody Thomas, Leonel Valera, John Rooney, Jerming Rosario, Kristian Cardoza, Brandon Lewis, Drew Jackson

Two names conspicuously missing are Edwin Uceta, and Devin Mann. I have no idea if FanGraphs consider them with a 30 FV or less, or if they were accidentally excluded.

By any definition, the LAD are clearly a top 10 organization.

Future Dodgers did publish their list of their Top 101 Prospects. Dodgers included in their Top 50 not included in FanGraphs list of those prospects with a FV of 35+ or better:

Connor Joe #28
Niko Hulsizer #32
Braydon Fisher #35
Marshall Kasowski #36
Donovan Casey #38
Morgan Cooper #42
Zach Reks #43
Starling Heredia #47
Logan Salow #50

I am looking forward to next year when some of the 51-101 prospects have a season behind them and can move up the list. There are at least two that absolutely belong in the Top 50: Andre Jackson #54, and #56 Jack Little.

IN OTHER NEWS

Gavin Lux – It was mentioned that it should be appropriate to bring up a player who is hot. Well there is nobody hotter in all of baseball than Gavin Lux. With the new prospect publications out, Gavin Lux has moved to #11 in both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He is only considered behind Wander Franco and Bo Bichette as SS prospects. Franco is In High A, while Bichette is in AAA in the International League. The International League is a FAR MORE PITCHING FRIENDLY league than the PCL. Bichette is batting .307/.362/.508/.870. That is very good for the International League, but that is nowhere near the level that Gavin Lux is at right now…PCL or not. Prior to Saturday’s 0-fer, in 76 PA, Lux is batting .515/.566/1.015/1.580, 8 walks, 13 Ks (17%). He has hit into 1 double play. He has hit into all 16 AAA games with 9 multi-hit games. In 291 AA PA – .313/.375/.521/.896

DJ Peters – In 92 AAA PA – .370/.331/.422/.753 – 20 K (21.74%)
In 288 AA PA – .241/.331/.422/.753 – 93 K (32.29%) (Also prior to Saturday’s 0-fer).

As long as we are promoting those that are hot in MiLB, might as well promote DJ as well.

Inflated PCL Stats – I understand why so many get excited about some of the OKC Dodgers batting metrics. But maybe we should slow down and put some things in proper perspective. For those who have qualified:
32 batters batting average > .300
7 batters OPS > 1.000
27 batters OPS > .900
59 batters OPS > .800
21 batters RBIs > 60

Smith has 19 HRs, which is tied for 18th, the same as Padres’ 2B Luis Urias. Smith has only 11 doubles and 2 triples.
2019 – 251 AAA PA – .275/.378/.616/.995
2018 – 405 AA/AAA PA – .233/.322/.455/.776

Considering Lux’s, Peters’, and Smith’s batting escalation in 2019, might there be something to those juiced AAA baseballs? Just speculating?

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT by AC

OKC Dodgers 9 – San Antonio Missions 8 (Brewers)

Tony Gonsolin suffered another rough outing. With three runs already across, Luis Vazquez relieved Gonsolin with one out and a runner on 2nd. Vazquez promptly surrendered a single to allow the 4th run and a 3-0 lead after 2 ½ innings. With the help of a 2 run Connor Joe HR (12) and a Jake Peter Grand Slam (7), the Dodgers scored 7 to take a 7-4 lead. Mitchell White relieved Vazquez and yielded a run in the 4th to inch closer. The Dodgers scored a pair in the 5th on a Kyle Garlick HR (17), a Zach Reks double, a Drew Jackson single moving Reks to 3rd, who then scored on a Jake Peter ground out.

White allowed a Travis Shaw HR in the 7th, and Kevin Quackenbush allowed a 2 out 2 run HR in the 9th before closing out the victory.

Gavin Lux and DJ Peters each went hitless. Will Smith did play, and he went 1-4. Connor Joe, Kyle Garlick, Zach Reks, and Drew Jackson each had 2 hits.

Tulsa Drillers 3 – Midland RockHounds 0 (A’s)

Andre Scrubb started as an opener, going 1.2 innings with 1 walk and 3 strikeouts. My surprise darkhorse riser, Parker Curry, followed with 5.1, 2 hit and 2 walk scoreless innings, with 9 strikeouts. Yordy Cabrera and Nolan Long closed out the 3 hit shutout with Long notching his 2nd save.

The Drillers scored the only run they needed in the 4th on a Zach McKinstry double and a RBI single by Omar Estevez. The 1-0 scored remained until the bottom of the 8th when Jared Walker drew a one out walk. McKinstry followed with a single and both runners moved up a base on a throwing error. Walker scored on a fielder’s choice by Omar Estevez, McKinstry scored on another fielding error for the 3rd and final run. McKinstry had 2 of the 4 hits for the Drillers.

RC Quakes 8 – Stockton Ports 1 (A’s)

Leo Crawford started and allowed a lead off HR to Austin Beck, and then proceeded to shut down the Ports for the next 6.0 innings. Down 1-0 in the 3rd, Donovan Casey singled and went to 3rd on back to back WP, and scored on a Miguel Vargas single.. Dillon Paulson walked on his first RC AB. Vargas scored as Hunter Feduccia reached on a fielding error. Starling Heredia walked to load the bases for Jeter Downs who hit a Grand Slam (HR #15) and a 6-1 lead. The Quakes scored 2 more in the 7th. Starling Heredia struck out but reached 1B on a WP. After one out, Deacon Liput walked. Both runners moved up on a WP. After a second out, Brayan Morales hit a clutch 2-out 2-run single to extend the lead to 8-1. In the 9th, Jeter Downs got a double for his 3rd hit of the night. Downs scored on a one-out single by Marcus Chiu. Donovan Casey was HBP.

In Crawford’s 6.0 innings, he allowed 4 hits, zero walks, and 8 strikeouts. Darien Nunez relieved Crawford in the 7th and pitched a hitless 2.0 innings, with 4 Ks. Guillermo Zuniga relieved Nunez in the 9th, and pitched a scoreless inning with 2 Ks.

Jeren Kendall struck out all three of his ABs, and is now batting .178 with a 39% strikeout ratio.

Great Lakes Loons 3 – Burlington Bees 7 (LAA)

Loons starting pitcher Stephen Kolek surrendered a leadoff HR in the 5th to break a 0-0 tie. Then everything unraveled with one out in the 7th. Kolek allowed a double and back to back walks to load the bases. A single brought in one run and the bases remained loaded. After the second out, Kolek walked in a run, and was relieved by Justin Hagenman. Hagenman quickly gave up 3 consecutive singles, allowing all three of his inherited runners to score, and one of his own for a 6-run inning.

In the 8th, Jacob Amaya led off with a single and was followed by Michael Busch’s 2nd walk. Both runners moved up on a WP, and Amaya scored on a Kody Hoese ground out for his 1st Great Lakes RBI. Justin Yurchak kept the inning alive with a walk and Busch scored on a Romer Cuadrado single. That was Busch’s first Great Lakes run. Dan Robinson followed with a single. But that was the end of the Loons threat.

Michael Busch got a single to go with his 2 walks, but Kody Hoese went 0-5 in his Great Lakes debut.

Ogden Raptors 8 – Rocky Mountain Vibes 3 (Brewers)

After two scoreless innings, the Raptors worked 3 walks and Brandon Lewis’ first professional Grand Slam (3rd HR), to open the scoring at 4-0. After three additional walks in the 4th loaded the bases, Sam McWilliams hit a 2-run single and a 6-0 lead.

The Vibes scored a run off starter Elio Serrano in the 5th before being relieved by Yeison Cespedes. In his 4.2 IP, Serrano allowed the one run on 3 hits, 1 walk and 8 strikeouts. Cespedes and Edward Cuello each allowed a run before the Raptors scored.

The Raptors used a Ryan Ward single and Sauryn Lao double (11) for a run in the 5th and a Jimmy Titus single and run scoring double (5) by Joe Vranesh in the 7th for the 8th and final run.

Hunter Speer pitched the final 1.2 innings to secure the victory.

The Raptors are now enjoying a 12 game winning streak and are 27-6 on the year.

AZL Dodgers Lasorda 1 – AZL Giants Orange 2

The Giants scored a run in the first with a Marco Luciano HR off Israiky Berroa. The Lasordas tied the game in the 5th with Jorbit Vivas reaching base on an error, a walk and single to load the bases and then an Aldo Espinoza sac fly. The Giants took the lead in the bottom of the 5th with an infield single, a 2 base throwing error, and ground out to score an unearned run.

After Berroa pitched a strong 5.0 innings, Adolfo Ramirez pitched the final 3.0 scoreless innings. Aldrich De Jongh and Jorbit Vivas each had 2 hits for the Lasordas.

AZL Dodgers Mota 4 – AZL Mariners 2

With a Diego Cartaya HR (1), the Motas took a 1-0 lead into the 6th. The Mariners scored a tieing run in the 6th on a HR of their own. The Motas retook the lead in the 7th with a Diego Cartaya walk, Alex De Jesus single, and PB moved up both runners. After took K’s Cartaya scored on a Jonny DeLuca single. De Jesus and DeLuca scored on a Albert Suarez triple, who was out at home trying to stretch it into an inside-the-park HR.

Jeisson Cabrera pitched a masterful hitless 4.2 innings allowing a walk and 8 strikeouts. Huei-Sheng Lin and Zack Plunkett each allowed a run before the 3-run outburst by the Motas. Mitchell Tyransky closed out the game for his 1st save. Alex De Jesus had a 2-hit game.

DSL Dodgers Bautista 0 – DSL Red Sox (1) 3

The two teams were in a tight 0-0 pitching duel through 6 innings. Rafael Tua started and pitched the first 4.0 scoreless innings and Andrew Budier pitched 2.2 before an unearned run scored to break the tie. The Red Sox scored two more off Edgardo Henriquez in the 8th. The offense consisted of 4 singles, two my Kiumel Bastardo and two by Yohandry Sequera.

DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 3 – DSL Rangers (1) 2

Juan Diaz led off for the Shoemakers in the 4th with a walk and moved to 2nd on a Marlon Cairo single. Both runners moved up on a sacrifice bunt, and both scored on separate wild pitches for a 2-0 lead. After four scoreless innings by starter Yamil Castillo, the Rangers scored two in the 5th to tie. The Shoemakers broke the tie with 1 out in the 8th with a Marlon Cairo HR (5) for the deciding run. Three Shoemaker pitchers finished the final four scoreless innings.